2008: If Barack Obama had won the New Hampshire primary?

[Joe Republic]

If Obama had performed as the polls predicted and won the New Hampshire primary by around an 8 point margin, how would the Democratic primary race have shaped up afterwards?

[Michael Z]

One thing's for sure - I wouldn't have cursed like a sailor upon hearing the results that morning.

Secondly, it's hard to say. To some extent NH brought Hillary back into the race, but it could also be argued that Clinton's challenge made him go the extra mile to win South Carolina and other states as convincingly as he did.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

He probably would've steamrolled his way into her lead and could've actually won California as well. There was talk she should drop out if she lost NH by 8 points, so if he had lost there, she would've been in lots of trouble.

[TomC]

Clinton would have been out right after Super Tuesday. I think it's good that it's been competetive up to a point. Would have been nice to end it in Texas or Penn.

[Lief 🗽]

The map after Super Tuesday, when Clinton drops out.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

The map after Super Tuesday, when Clinton drops out.

I concur with Lief's map. If only those damn polls hadn't been wrong....

[Bo]

This would be the map, if Hillary decided to drop out after Super Tuesday. Obama would have easily won the nomination and there would be no angry disgruntled Clinton supporters. A better question would be what office would Hillary currently hold in this scenario?

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

This would be the map, if Hillary decided to drop out after Super Tuesday. Obama would have easily won the nomination and there would be no angry disgruntled Clinton supporters. A better question would be what office would Hillary currently hold in this scenario?

White House janitor.

[justW353]

[Bo]

There's no way Hillary wins MN. Obama won it after he lost NH, so Obama winning NH only increases his victory margin in MN. I also don't see Hillary winning NM if Obama wins NH, since she only won NM by 1% in RL and Obama's victory in NH would have given him enough extra momentum to win NM. I also think Uncommitted would have won in Michigan, even though that's a matter of opinion. BTW, what office do you think Hillary would currently hold if this scenario actually occured?

[justW353]

There's no way Hillary wins MN. Obama won it after he lost NH, so Obama winning NH only increases his victory margin in MN. I also don't see Hillary winning NM if Obama wins NH, since she only won NM by 1% in RL and Obama's victory in NH would have given him enough extra momentum to win NM. I also think Uncommitted would have won in Michigan, even though that's a matter of opinion. BTW, what office do you think Hillary would currently hold if this scenario actually occured?

I didn't mean to give Hillary Minnesota.  I was scrolling down the page and missed it.  I realized after posting, but had already closed the EV page.

As for NM, I don't know, I just think she'd pull it off.

As for Hillary, I think she'd still be Secretary of State.  She's pretty good at her job.

[Bo]

There's no way Hillary wins MN. Obama won it after he lost NH, so Obama winning NH only increases his victory margin in MN. I also don't see Hillary winning NM if Obama wins NH, since she only won NM by 1% in RL and Obama's victory in NH would have given him enough extra momentum to win NM. I also think Uncommitted would have won in Michigan, even though that's a matter of opinion. BTW, what office do you think Hillary would currently hold if this scenario actually occured?

I didn't mean to give Hillary Minnesota.  I was scrolling down the page and missed it.  I realized after posting, but had already closed the EV page.

As for NM, I don't know, I just think she'd pull it off.

As for Hillary, I think she'd still be Secretary of State.  She's pretty good at her job.

All right. Two more questions (for now): Do you think Hillary cried in NH on purpose? Also, who do you think would have won the Iowa caucuses and the nomination if Hillary had cried right before Iowa instead?

[justW353]

There's no way Hillary wins MN. Obama won it after he lost NH, so Obama winning NH only increases his victory margin in MN. I also don't see Hillary winning NM if Obama wins NH, since she only won NM by 1% in RL and Obama's victory in NH would have given him enough extra momentum to win NM. I also think Uncommitted would have won in Michigan, even though that's a matter of opinion. BTW, what office do you think Hillary would currently hold if this scenario actually occured?

I didn't mean to give Hillary Minnesota.  I was scrolling down the page and missed it.  I realized after posting, but had already closed the EV page.

As for NM, I don't know, I just think she'd pull it off.

As for Hillary, I think she'd still be Secretary of State.  She's pretty good at her job.

All right. Two more questions (for now): Do you think Hillary cried in NH on purpose? Also, who do you think would have won the Iowa caucuses and the nomination if Hillary had cried right before Iowa instead?

Yes, she cried on purpose.

Well, I don't think she had any reason to cry before Iowa.  She was already the presumptive nominee until Obama won Iowa.

I think Obama still would have won.

[Derek]

You know I don't really see a difference other than more early endorsements. Clinton wasn't going down til the convention and if the democrat party actually let their voters decide, then she would've been the nominee.

[Bo]

You know I don't really see a difference other than more early endorsements. Clinton wasn't going down til the convention and if the democrat party actually let their voters decide, then she would've been the nominee.

Uh, the Democrats did let their voters decide. The pledged delegate totals are based on PV, and Obama won a majority of pledged delegates.