BRTD's delegate projections by state

[Keystone Phil]

I have her winning by 10, so I'd be off by 10 points. You were off 28 points in Virginia and 17 points in Pennsylvania Senate.

Give it a week or two. You'll have The Savior winning the state.

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Ok, so three wrong predictions and then three fairly accurate predictions from last night. So, what's your point again? Oh, wait, I remember...bust on Phil for his past errors. Got it. Again, it's a personal dislike that motivates you to constantly bring up Santorum and VA.

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I'm sorry? It's certainly means more and will get me places compared to the stock boy at Target. The sad part was about how you used to brag about being a success and having a great job. Then we find out you're working the night shift at a Target at the age of 25. Again, your arrogance and personal attacks will only come back and bite you in the ass.

I bring this up only because you seem to enjoy immaturity. After all, a few days ago you said maturity is a "suburban thing" so you should take what I'm saying as a compliment.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I have her winning by 10, so I'd be off by 10 points. You were off 28 points in Virginia and 17 points in Pennsylvania Senate.

Give it a week or two. You'll have The Savior winning the state.

I assume "The Savior" equals Obama.

Whatever the case, you can't use the future to argue the present.

Ok, so three wrong predictions and then three fairly accurate predictions from last night. So, what's your point again? Oh, wait, I remember...bust on Phil for his past errors. Got it. Again, it's a personal dislike that motivates you to constantly bring up Santorum and VA.

Two DEAD WRONG predictions (I'm not sure what the third is, no doubt you've made on but I'm not continually busting on you for it).

The main reason though is that your predictions were really just hackish. You even basically admitted you predicted Hillary winning Virginia just because you wanted her too.

I'm sorry? It's certainly means more and will get me places compared to the stock boy at Target.

Like my job in college.

The sad part was about how you used to brag about being a success and having a great job.

When? I've never bragged about any job I've had, because I've hated them all (but that applies to pretty much any other job.)

Then we find out you're working the night shift at a Target at the age of 25.

1-I'm 24.
2-I worked that job for a month and a half. I only took it because I landed it as soon as I moved here and it's better to take any job you can get temporarily rather than keep looking for a month during a recession and run out of money. I now have enough money to last until the end of May when my sublease ends so it's not an issue. Someone who still lives their parents and thus doesn't have to be concerned with food and rent shouldn't be mocking anyone else over this.
3-There were plenty of people much older than me at that job, and they're still working it (unlike me)

I bring this up only because you seem to enjoy immaturity. After all, a few days ago you said maturity is a "suburban thing" so you should take what I'm saying as a compliment.

What I meant by that is when people like dazzleman said it was quite immature to be more concerned with things like proximity to bars/strip clubs/indie music venues/keg parties than things like crime and living space.

[Keystone Phil]

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Melissa Brown

Ok, cue to BRTD's  "LOL"

But again, I own up to it and take it. You don't take it. You try to deflect it. And yes, you do continually bring it up and you will continue to do so up until April 22nd and even after that. You're petty and childish.

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When we used to bust on you for being a loser (something you have seemingly embraced), you used to brag about how educated you were and you had great job opportunities lined up.

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Again, I'm 19 so using that I live at home really isn't an issue. I have my own expenses though. I have also take pride in having a good job whereas you embrace the "I hate work! It's for suburban people!" attitude so I don't see why you're getting so defensive now.

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Good for them?

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...

It is more immature and you embrace it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

When we used to bust on you for being a loser (something you have seemingly embraced), you used to brag about how educated you were and you had great job opportunities lined up.

All I said is that I would soon have a degree. Which I do now.

Again, I'm 19 so using that I live at home really isn't an issue. I have my own expenses though. I have also take pride in having a good job whereas you embrace the "I hate work! It's for suburban people!" attitude so I don't see why you're getting so defensive now.

You said once that you hoped you'd be redistricted out of Allyson Schwartz's district meaning you apparently plan on staying with your parents through much longer. I know plenty of people who lived out when they were 19 (one of my current roommates moved into this house when he was 19) and I moved out on my own if you don't count dorms at 20, so by this logic you have to move out next year to reach me.

I'm not saying this to say "haha, Phil's a loser who lives with his parents!" I don't even blame BushOklahoma for planning on living with his parents for a year at 25 (even though he ended up not doing so.) I'm just saying you're in no such position to be mocking people for economic status sitting where you are, much like Xahar (though at least Xahar admitted this once called out on it.)

And yes, I hate work. Not because it's "suburban" or anything but because it's boring and not fun. That doesn't mean I don't plan on not doing it.

Good for them?

So what does that make them? Ultra-losers?

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...

It is more immature and you embrace it.

So anyone who chooses to live in the city instead of the suburbs (including your parents) is immature?

[exopolitician]

Um.....so about those delegate predictions....

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Um.....so about those delegate predictions....

Yes, I'll be getting around to those. Blame Phil for the derailment.

[Nutmeg]

Oh, by the way, keep an eye out for me at Hillary's victory party if it's in Philly. I'll make it a point to be there. 

Why?

[Keystone Phil]

Blame Phil for the derailment.

Child.

All I said is that I would soon have a degree. Which I do now.

And what do you have to prove for it?

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Or I plan to live in the general neighborhood. Duplexs and apartments nearby. Thanks.

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It's called comparing situations. You're out of college and boasting about your degree and you work at Target. Working at Target would be acceptable for my situation yet I have something better. That says a lot for someone my age and proves you don't live up to your own hype.

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I doubt they were boasting about their college degrees.

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How the hell did you make it out of grade school? Do you have any understanding of logic at all? I'm baffled at your stupidity. I really am at a loss for words. Your reasons for living in a city are insanely immature. My parents and anyone else with at least half a brain don't choose to live here and diss the suburbs because that area is for "maturity."

Your ignorance makes my head hurt.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, by the way, keep an eye out for me at Hillary's victory party if it's in Philly. I'll make it a point to be there. 

Why?

It will be interesting to see. Plus, primary night here will be boring otherwise. All the potentially interesting primaries won't live up to expectations.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Please note Phil didn't attack any of my delegate projections in PA actually other than the at large (since I have PA-15 going Hillary).

The numbers are the same with a 10 point victory even with the delegate/PLEO thing, but if I give Hillary a 15 point victory, she gets 32 of the at large delegates to Obama's 23. Hillary 84, Obama 74. As big of a win as Obama got in Wisconsin.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I won't bother with the rest because it's not what the thread's about, but I'll respond to this:

It's called comparing situations. You're out of college and boasting about your degree and you work at Target. Working at Target would be acceptable for my situation yet I have something better. That says a lot for someone my age and proves you don't live up to your own hype.

Are you illiterate? As I've made clear in the rest of the thread: I do not work at Target anymore.

[Keystone Phil]

Please note Phil didn't attack any of my delegate projections in PA actually other than the at large (since I have PA-15 going Hillary).

I don't have time to nit pick with you. Please don't take this as me submitting to your authority, Your Majesty.

[Keystone Phil]

I won't bother with the rest because it's not what the thread's about, but I'll respond to this:

It's called comparing situations. You're out of college and boasting about your degree and you work at Target. Working at Target would be acceptable for my situation yet I have something better. That says a lot for someone my age and proves you don't live up to your own hype.

Are you illiterate? As I've made clear in the rest of the thread: I do not work at Target anymore.

I understand that, little Zach. Instead, you are unemployed. Congrats!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I won't bother with the rest because it's not what the thread's about, but I'll respond to this:

It's called comparing situations. You're out of college and boasting about your degree and you work at Target. Working at Target would be acceptable for my situation yet I have something better. That says a lot for someone my age and proves you don't live up to your own hype.

Are you illiterate? As I've made clear in the rest of the thread: I do not work at Target anymore.

I understand that, little Zach. Instead, you are unemployed. Congrats!

And soon, I won't be and should have a decent job. The end.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

PA-1: 7 delegates. Pretty damn close to majority black. Hillary should do very well among the whites though, so whether Obama wins 4 or 5 delegates becomes a turnout war. I'll assume worst case scenario. Obama 4-3.

Yes, the results here will "probably" be rather ugly.

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Centre county is only about a sixth (a guess; maths be my weak point) of the district.

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IIRC this district includes Pottstown.

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Typical for where? Not Pennsylvania.

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Actually very different; the south of the district is working class.

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The district includes a reasonable section of the old anthracite field (if it didn't old mistress-throttler would *still* be in Congress...)

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I think she also has personal links of some kind with the area.

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The issue here is whether the urban areas can outvote the suburban ones or vice versa.

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The new bourgeois voters here are overwhelmingly Republican; the Democrat vote is concentrated in the old industrial cities rather than the commutervilles.

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This district also includes part of the old anthracite field.

[bullmoose88]

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Actually very different; the south of the district is working class.

I actually live in "the south of the district," which as Bucks county people call it...Lower Bucks...even then, most of lower bucks, on average, has a higher household income than the rest of the state...by like 5-10 grand.

But yes, its far less Republican, my precinct of Middletown (a majority Republican township) is probably like 55-45 or even 60-40 democratic...even then though the Republicans still hold registration advantages in many lower bucks townships...save for the very old-style democrat ones.

The blue collar/working class types at least in my area of lower bucks (my parents are lower level white collar types...and I'm a JD student) aren't the union types commonly associated with the dems in the past...they're more often upper level blue collar (I wish a more convienent term existed)...general contractors, contractors, site management etc...so they tend to have some money, although they may lack the other elements of a higher class that place them in the blue class category

But I'm digressing, and your point is pertinent nonetheless.

A county like Bucks is generally divided into 3 regions...upper bucks (say north of Bedminster/Doylestown...up to the Bucks/Northhampton county line...and I went to college in Northhampton county...so I know a little bit about PA15), Central Bucks (Doylestown, Buckingham, New Hope, Lahaska, Solesbury, Upper Makefield [Washington's Crossing]...the names themselves convey how much wealth there is, particularly in New Hope) and then theres lower bucks

And Lower Bucks is really a mish-mash...at one end you have the very Democratic, and democratic for a very long time, areas of Bristol Borough, Township, Morrisville, Falls Township...traditionally very blue collar areas...And on the other you have Newtown, Langhorne, Yardley [Lower Makefield]...etc...Levittown's not actually a town, just a set of postal codes...and while as a whole it is more democratic and blue collar most of that is distributed in the falls, tullytown, and bristol twp parts while Middletown's part (according to Bill Levitt's 1950s social engineering plan...you should look it up Al, you'd probably find it fascinating) even now remains more white and upper blue collar than the rest.


Anyways...I digress again, if you want more on the county just ask me, I have family and friends from all areas in the county.

My point is, and Al's suggestion backs this up...if you think Obama's gonna win Bucks, or Whoop Hillary here, you may be sadly mistaken, as will I (I like Obama).  PA is a closed primary...Bucks has a plurality in GOP registration (as do Montco, Chester, and Delaware)...so in bucks, 40% or so are registered democrats...If I had to guess at a registration distribution...

Upper Bucks...not very Democratic at all...think rural style gun owning Republicans...maybe a few similar democrats, but not many...maybe 10% of the democratic rolls.

Central Bucks...Doylestown, Buckingham, Bedminster=Very Republican...mainly because of Money issues...very yuppie-ish, also getting more and more affluent democrats moving in...NY/NJ area transplants, or switchovers because of social issues.  New Hope-Very Democratic, very artsy fartsy, very big gay community that keeps the town looking very very very nice...most affluent area of the county probably the bulwark of central bucks democratic activity...expect this area to go big for Obama.  But Central Bucks probably has about 30% of the Dems living in Bucks

Lower Bucks...lets divide this into 3 areas 1) White Collar Lower Bucks-Newtown, Lower Makefield [Yardley], Upper Middletown, Northhampton, Richboro-Very Republican, but very liberal...what registered democrats there are here are voting obama, but i can't venture there are many...probably 10% of the party rolls

2) Traditional, unsuburban areas of Bucks-Bristol Boro, Morrisville-Large Minority Populations (both Black and Latino), very working class...lots of democrats, these two smaller areas probably are about 10% of the party list.

3) The rest-Levittown (aka Lower Middletown-south of Oxford Valley Mall, Falls twp, Bristol Twp) Southhampton, Feasterville, Bensalem, Fallsington, Penndel etc...40% of democrats, mainly Philadelphia transplants, these dems vary in wealth across townships, probably most affluent in lower middletown, southhampton etc, but make no mistake these folks probably won't vote obama...this part of Bucks is infamous for its large number of Reagan Democrats...very few starbucks (wink), barnes and nobles/borders, and whatver little exists is in lower middletown, southhampton, and border areas of the mall complex in lower middletown that sit in falls twp (and give that area much needed tax revenue).

Hillary is not going to get killed in bucks...not by the margins Obama needs to stop her tide from the rest of the state...i suggest that montco and delaware may play out in a very similar fashion.

[Sam Spade]

I think I learned more about Bucks County in that one post than ever before.

One of these days I'll post something like that about Harris County Texas.

[bullmoose88]

I think I learned more about Bucks County in that one post than ever before.

One of these days I'll post something like that about Harris County Texas.

Heh, and that ginormous post was only supporting the proposition that, unless a dramatic change occurs, Obama won't blow hillary out in Bucks.

[Keystone Phil]

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Actually very different; the south of the district is working class.

I actually live in "the south of the district," which as Bucks county people call it...Lower Bucks...even then, most of lower bucks, on average, has a higher household income than the rest of the state...by like 5-10 grand.

But yes, its far less Republican, my precinct of Middletown (a majority Republican township) is probably like 55-45 or even 60-40 democratic...even then though the Republicans still hold registration advantages in many lower bucks townships...save for the very old-style democrat ones.

The blue collar/working class types at least in my area of lower bucks (my parents are lower level white collar types...and I'm a JD student) aren't the union types commonly associated with the dems in the past...they're more often upper level blue collar (I wish a more convienent term existed)...general contractors, contractors, site management etc...so they tend to have some money, although they may lack the other elements of a higher class that place them in the blue class category

But I'm digressing, and your point is pertinent nonetheless.

A county like Bucks is generally divided into 3 regions...upper bucks (say north of Bedminster/Doylestown...up to the Bucks/Northhampton county line...and I went to college in Northhampton county...so I know a little bit about PA15), Central Bucks (Doylestown, Buckingham, New Hope, Lahaska, Solesbury, Upper Makefield [Washington's Crossing]...the names themselves convey how much wealth there is, particularly in New Hope) and then theres lower bucks

And Lower Bucks is really a mish-mash...at one end you have the very Democratic, and democratic for a very long time, areas of Bristol Borough, Township, Morrisville, Falls Township...traditionally very blue collar areas...And on the other you have Newtown, Langhorne, Yardley [Lower Makefield]...etc...Levittown's not actually a town, just a set of postal codes...and while as a whole it is more democratic and blue collar most of that is distributed in the falls, tullytown, and bristol twp parts while Middletown's part (according to Bill Levitt's 1950s social engineering plan...you should look it up Al, you'd probably find it fascinating) even now remains more white and upper blue collar than the rest.


Anyways...I digress again, if you want more on the county just ask me, I have family and friends from all areas in the county.

My point is, and Al's suggestion backs this up...if you think Obama's gonna win Bucks, or Whoop Hillary here, you may be sadly mistaken, as will I (I like Obama).  PA is a closed primary...Bucks has a plurality in GOP registration (as do Montco, Chester, and Delaware)...so in bucks, 40% or so are registered democrats...If I had to guess at a registration distribution...

Upper Bucks...not very Democratic at all...think rural style gun owning Republicans...maybe a few similar democrats, but not many...maybe 10% of the democratic rolls.

Central Bucks...Doylestown, Buckingham, Bedminster=Very Republican...mainly because of Money issues...very yuppie-ish, also getting more and more affluent democrats moving in...NY/NJ area transplants, or switchovers because of social issues.  New Hope-Very Democratic, very artsy fartsy, very big gay community that keeps the town looking very very very nice...most affluent area of the county probably the bulwark of central bucks democratic activity...expect this area to go big for Obama.  But Central Bucks probably has about 30% of the Dems living in Bucks

Lower Bucks...lets divide this into 3 areas 1) White Collar Lower Bucks-Newtown, Lower Makefield [Yardley], Upper Middletown, Northhampton, Richboro-Very Republican, but very liberal...what registered democrats there are here are voting obama, but i can't venture there are many...probably 10% of the party rolls

2) Traditional, unsuburban areas of Bucks-Bristol Boro, Morrisville-Large Minority Populations (both Black and Latino), very working class...lots of democrats, these two smaller areas probably are about 10% of the party list.

3) The rest-Levittown (aka Lower Middletown-south of Oxford Valley Mall, Falls twp, Bristol Twp) Southhampton, Feasterville, Bensalem, Fallsington, Penndel etc...40% of democrats, mainly Philadelphia transplants, these dems vary in wealth across townships, probably most affluent in lower middletown, southhampton etc, but make no mistake these folks probably won't vote obama...this part of Bucks is infamous for its large number of Reagan Democrats...very few starbucks (wink), barnes and nobles/borders, and whatver little exists is in lower middletown, southhampton, and border areas of the mall complex in lower middletown that sit in falls twp (and give that area much needed tax revenue).

Hillary is not going to get killed in bucks...not by the margins Obama needs to stop her tide from the rest of the state...i suggest that montco and delaware may play out in a very similar fashion.

Excellent analysis.

[Gustaf]

I know too little about individual CDs in PA to comment on most of this. But. BRTD, why do you expect MS to be such a large blow-out for Obama? He's been very consistently around 56% in Southern states (except Georgia). And I would *guess* that the GOP race being over may hurt him since it increases the number of Southern whites in the primary. And before you say it, yes I know blacks comprise a larger share of the Democratic electorate in MS, but still?

[Verily]

I know too little about individual CDs in PA to comment on most of this. But. BRTD, why do you expect MS to be such a large blow-out for Obama? He's been very consistently around 56% in Southern states (except Georgia). And I would *guess* that the GOP race being over may hurt him since it increases the number of Southern whites in the primary. And before you say it, yes I know blacks comprise a larger share of the Democratic electorate in MS, but still?

Not just larger, but far larger. Alabama is the least black of the Deep South states, at 29%, and it voted 56% for Obama. Mississippi is the most black of the Deep South states, at 37%; upwards of 65% of the electorate will be black.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yes, what Verily said. Also factor in Hillary's popularity among southern whites, not high to put it mildly. True they won't vote for Obama either but it doesn't help Hillary if they vote Edwards or just don't vote/vote GOP either.

[J. J.]

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Actually very different; the south of the district is working class.

I actually live in "the south of the district," which as Bucks county people call it...Lower Bucks...even then, most of lower bucks, on average, has a higher household income than the rest of the state...by like 5-10 grand.

But yes, its far less Republican, my precinct of Middletown (a majority Republican township) is probably like 55-45 or even 60-40 democratic...even then though the Republicans still hold registration advantages in many lower bucks townships...save for the very old-style democrat ones.

The blue collar/working class types at least in my area of lower bucks (my parents are lower level white collar types...and I'm a JD student) aren't the union types commonly associated with the dems in the past...they're more often upper level blue collar (I wish a more convienent term existed)...general contractors, contractors, site management etc...so they tend to have some money, although they may lack the other elements of a higher class that place them in the blue class category

But I'm digressing, and your point is pertinent nonetheless.

A county like Bucks is generally divided into 3 regions...upper bucks (say north of Bedminster/Doylestown...up to the Bucks/Northhampton county line...and I went to college in Northhampton county...so I know a little bit about PA15), Central Bucks (Doylestown, Buckingham, New Hope, Lahaska, Solesbury, Upper Makefield [Washington's Crossing]...the names themselves convey how much wealth there is, particularly in New Hope) and then theres lower bucks

And Lower Bucks is really a mish-mash...at one end you have the very Democratic, and democratic for a very long time, areas of Bristol Borough, Township, Morrisville, Falls Township...traditionally very blue collar areas...And on the other you have Newtown, Langhorne, Yardley [Lower Makefield]...etc...Levittown's not actually a town, just a set of postal codes...and while as a whole it is more democratic and blue collar most of that is distributed in the falls, tullytown, and bristol twp parts while Middletown's part (according to Bill Levitt's 1950s social engineering plan...you should look it up Al, you'd probably find it fascinating) even now remains more white and upper blue collar than the rest.


Anyways...I digress again, if you want more on the county just ask me, I have family and friends from all areas in the county.

My point is, and Al's suggestion backs this up...if you think Obama's gonna win Bucks, or Whoop Hillary here, you may be sadly mistaken, as will I (I like Obama).  PA is a closed primary...Bucks has a plurality in GOP registration (as do Montco, Chester, and Delaware)...so in bucks, 40% or so are registered democrats...If I had to guess at a registration distribution...

Upper Bucks...not very Democratic at all...think rural style gun owning Republicans...maybe a few similar democrats, but not many...maybe 10% of the democratic rolls.

Central Bucks...Doylestown, Buckingham, Bedminster=Very Republican...mainly because of Money issues...very yuppie-ish, also getting more and more affluent democrats moving in...NY/NJ area transplants, or switchovers because of social issues.  New Hope-Very Democratic, very artsy fartsy, very big gay community that keeps the town looking very very very nice...most affluent area of the county probably the bulwark of central bucks democratic activity...expect this area to go big for Obama.  But Central Bucks probably has about 30% of the Dems living in Bucks

Lower Bucks...lets divide this into 3 areas 1) White Collar Lower Bucks-Newtown, Lower Makefield [Yardley], Upper Middletown, Northhampton, Richboro-Very Republican, but very liberal...what registered democrats there are here are voting obama, but i can't venture there are many...probably 10% of the party rolls

2) Traditional, unsuburban areas of Bucks-Bristol Boro, Morrisville-Large Minority Populations (both Black and Latino), very working class...lots of democrats, these two smaller areas probably are about 10% of the party list.

3) The rest-Levittown (aka Lower Middletown-south of Oxford Valley Mall, Falls twp, Bristol Twp) Southhampton, Feasterville, Bensalem, Fallsington, Penndel etc...40% of democrats, mainly Philadelphia transplants, these dems vary in wealth across townships, probably most affluent in lower middletown, southhampton etc, but make no mistake these folks probably won't vote obama...this part of Bucks is infamous for its large number of Reagan Democrats...very few starbucks (wink), barnes and nobles/borders, and whatver little exists is in lower middletown, southhampton, and border areas of the mall complex in lower middletown that sit in falls twp (and give that area much needed tax revenue).

Hillary is not going to get killed in bucks...not by the margins Obama needs to stop her tide from the rest of the state...i suggest that montco and delaware may play out in a very similar fashion.

Excellent analysis.

Very, even though I meet Zulu clients there.

[bullmoose88]

Very, even though I meet Zulu clients there.

Zulu? What?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice post More of that sort of thing be needed here. Just to pick up on one thing:

Levittown's not actually a town, just a set of postal codes...and while as a whole it is more democratic and blue collar most of that is distributed in the falls, tullytown, and bristol twp parts while Middletown's part (according to Bill Levitt's 1950s social engineering plan...you should look it up Al, you'd probably find it fascinating) even now remains more white and upper blue collar than the rest.

Yeah, the Levittown's are quite interesting. Some of the first stuff I ever read about (sub) urban patterns in America were about 'em.