North Carolina delegate analysis

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

The last big state after Pennsylvania. Breakdown for now:

NC-1: 6 delegates. Majority black. Obama by a comfortable margin obviously. 4-2 Obama
NC-2: 6 delegates. About 29% black. Democratic voters are probably about 50/50 in terms of race, so this one'll split.
NC-3: 4 delegates. Only about 17% due to racial gerrymandering to create NC-1. But that's still around half the Democratic voters in this district. Another split.
NC-4: 9 delegates. The big prize. Only about 19% black, but in this seat Obama probably wins whites too. Obama needs a little over 61% to give him 6 delegates, I bet he will. 6-3 Obama
NC-5: 5 delegates, uber-GOP district with little blacks, Hillary wins. 3-2 Hillary.
NC-6: Basically the same. Actually Obama might stand a chance here because it's mostly affluent suburbia but I'm not sure if I trust that in the south (worked in some states, not others). 3-2 Hillary.
NC-7: 6 delegates. This is basically a conservative Democrat district but 21% black. Probably a split.
NC-8: 5 delegates, 30% black. Good demographics for Obama and even the white parts don't look that bad for him. 3-2 Obama.
NC-9: 6 delegates. Another uber-GOP suburban district (how does this get more delegates than NC-8? Completely unfair, but whatever.) Not a lot of blacks, but not the worst whites for Obama either. Probably a split.
NC-10: 5 delegates. Few blacks, redneck territory, luckily this is historically Republican rather than historically Democratic redneck territory, but that probably won't matter enough. Hillary 3-2.
NC-11: 6 delegates. Only 5% black, so Obama is really lucky it contains Asheville. That'll give him a split.
NC-12: 7 delegates. A good candidate for the ugliest congressional district. It's only plurality black, not majority and has a sizeable Hispanic population (10%), but Obama's still easily winning it. Can he get around the 64% he needs for 5 delegates? That probably depends on how affluent the whites are, to which I don't know and won't comment. I'll play it safe and say 4-3.
NC-13: 7 delegates. 27% black, probably enough for an Obama victory but not a huge one. 4-3  Obama.

That's 41 delegates for Obama and 36 for Hillary. 38 at large delegates, most of the polls here are awful with huge undecideds so I'll trust SUSA's Obama +10 lead, which gives him 21 delegates to Hillary's 17, resulting in 62 Obama, 53 Hillary. +9 Obama.

Comments?

[Josh/Devilman88]

It sounds about right to me.