WA Democratic Primary Map
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Alcon
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« Reply #25 on: March 10, 2008, 05:08:47 PM »
« edited: March 10, 2008, 05:15:51 PM by Alcon »

As for Paulmentum, his best neighborhood was Mann (the barely-majority black part of the Central District).  Thanks in part to an astounding 4% of the ballots being cast being Republican, Paul received 38%, or 6 votes.  He finished one vote behind the winner, McCain.

McCain won all neighborhoods and subneighborhoods.  His worst performances were invariably in low-vote areas.

GOP ballots consisted 30% or more of the electorate in only 2 of 88 subneighborhoods - Briarcliff (34.6%) and Madison Park (35.5%).  Eight subneighborhoods were under 10% Republican - Broadway (9.3%) and Stevens (9.1%) on Cap Hill; Atlantic (8.2%), Madrona (8.3%), Mann (3.6%) and Minor (7.3%) in the Central Area; and Columbia City (7.5%) and Mt. Baker (8.5%) in the Rainier Valley.

Only two precincts cast more GOP ballots than Democratic ballots.  One contains Reaganite-filled Madison Park condos along the water.  The more interesting, though, contains only Broadmoor Golf and Country Club.  Bush pushed 70% here in 2000, failed to hit 60% in 2004, and now GOP ballots outnumbered Democratic ballots only 103-101.  Obama landslided the Democratic ballots here, over 3-to-1.

Conclusion: Country Club Republicanism is collapsing in (and near) Seattle, and an Obama nomination is likely to expedite the process.  But we already knew that already.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #26 on: March 10, 2008, 05:50:35 PM »

Wait... c.200 people live in a golf club?
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Alcon
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« Reply #27 on: March 10, 2008, 06:03:51 PM »
« Edited: March 10, 2008, 06:05:59 PM by Alcon »

Wait... c.200 people live in a golf club?

Way more than that; about 1,200 I'd say.  Golf club developments are pretty pervasive in the United States.  Here's a satellite image, so you can see how it works.  There's also another in Seattle - Sand Point Country Club - that is smaller but big enough for its own precinct too.  It cast 62% Democratic ballots, and Obama won solidly too.

The entire town of Newcastle on the east side of Lake Washington is dotted with golf courses...and these are all over the place in California.

Irony:  Because of the quality of the houses outside of Broadmoor, gentrification of nearby Capitol Hill means that the area just outside of the secured gates is actually wealthier than Broadmoor itself.  Votes about 4-to-1 Democratic, too.  Broadmoor is nothing if not exclusive (and exclusionary).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #28 on: March 10, 2008, 06:09:42 PM »
« Edited: March 10, 2008, 06:16:34 PM by Citizen Al »

Way more than that; about 1,200 I'd say.  Golf club developments are pretty pervasive in the United States.   so you can see how it works.  There's also another in Seattle - Sand Point Country Club - that is smaller but big enough for its own precinct too.  It cast 62% Democratic ballots, and Obama won solidly too.

The entire town of Newcastle on the east side of Lake Washington is dotted with golf courses...and these are all over the place in California.

You see, this sounds like my idea of hell so...

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Ah yes; I remember you mentioning that a while back. Can't remember when or where though.
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Alcon
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« Reply #29 on: March 10, 2008, 06:12:25 PM »

You see, this sounds like my idea of hell so...

Newcastle, Hell?  A little...purdy though.  (And, really, it's just built around a golf course...only the original part of the town was built along the golf course...)

Irony:  Because of the quality of the houses outside of Broadmoor, gentrification of nearby Capitol Hill means that the area just outside of the secured gates is actually wealthier than Broadmoor itself.  Votes about 4-to-1 Democratic, too.  Broadmoor is nothing if not exclusive (and exclusionary).

It's one of my favorite stories.  I actively hate that place.  Their security guard tried to steal my camera.  I kicked him in the foot.

Capitalist scum.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #30 on: March 10, 2008, 06:23:03 PM »

Newcastle, Hell?  A little...purdy though.  (And, really, it's just built around a golf course...only the original part of the town was built along the golf course...)

I was thinking more of the general idea of living in a golf club. *shudders*

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Grin
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ottermax
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« Reply #31 on: March 10, 2008, 06:43:20 PM »

How'd Obama do in Issaquah and Bellevue?
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Alcon
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« Reply #32 on: March 10, 2008, 06:54:46 PM »
« Edited: March 11, 2008, 11:14:15 AM by Alcon »

How'd Obama do in Issaquah and Bellevue?

Eastside locales:

Beaux Arts Village: 62-38 Obama
Bellevue: 55-43 Obama
Clyde Hill: 63-34 Obama
Hunts Point: 63-37 Obama
Issaquah: 56-41 Obama
Kenmore: 55-42 Obama
Kirkland: 57-41 Obama
Lake Forest Park: 59-38 Obama
Medina: 61-35 Obama
Mercer Island: 62-36 Obama
Newcastle: 56-42 Obama
Redmond: 57-41 Obama
Sammamish: 62-36 Obama
Woodinville: 57-42 Obama
Yarrow Point: 75-24 Obama
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The Hack Hater
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« Reply #33 on: March 11, 2008, 07:35:52 PM »

The question is, why did Obama do well in many north-central counties(the ones north of Yakima) while he didn't do as well in coastal counties/counties in the west. Is the working class made up of slightly different kinds of people in those counties or something?
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Alcon
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« Reply #34 on: March 11, 2008, 07:43:15 PM »
« Edited: March 11, 2008, 07:59:50 PM by Alcon »

The question is, why did Obama do well in many north-central counties(the ones north of Yakima) while he didn't do as well in coastal counties/counties in the west. Is the working class made up of slightly different kinds of people in those counties or something?

Kittitas has the college vote in Ellensburg

Chelan has a lot of "latte liberal" mountain voters around Leavenworth

Okanogan has the same around Winthrop and Twisp, an area which had an incredible partisan swing from about 60-40 GOP to 60-40 Dem between 2000 and 2004 (despite no discernible change in population).  The rest of the county doesn't really have any reason to be a Clinton stronghold, and it wasn't.

Obama also does well enough among the non-unionized, working-class-but-not-poor in the West, and that includes Washington.

Douglas is, well, weird.  I'll have to look at it more when I have data.
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ottermax
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« Reply #35 on: March 11, 2008, 10:08:42 PM »

The question is, why did Obama do well in many north-central counties(the ones north of Yakima) while he didn't do as well in coastal counties/counties in the west. Is the working class made up of slightly different kinds of people in those counties or something?

Kittitas has the college vote in Ellensburg

Chelan has a lot of "latte liberal" mountain voters around Leavenworth

Okanogan has the same around Winthrop and Twisp, an area which had an incredible partisan swing from about 60-40 GOP to 60-40 Dem between 2000 and 2004 (despite no discernible change in population).  The rest of the county doesn't really have any reason to be a Clinton stronghold, and it wasn't.

Obama also does well enough among the non-unionized, working-class-but-not-poor in the West, and that includes Washington.

Douglas is, well, weird.  I'll have to look at it more when I have data.

Okanogan county has grown a lot and has seen more tourism, making it more of a latte-liberal area. Douglas doesn't have many Democrats to begin with.


The results on the Eastside are not very surprising at all.
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Alcon
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« Reply #36 on: March 11, 2008, 10:25:56 PM »

Okanogan is growing some, like around Edelweiss-Mazama, but the swing isn't limited to those areas.  Withrop and Twisp proper had huge swings, despite <1% population changes between 2000 and 2004.  Unless there's some weird population cycling going on, which I guess is possible.  It's an area I want to know more about...
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Alcon
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« Reply #37 on: April 06, 2008, 09:25:59 PM »
« Edited: April 06, 2008, 09:33:27 PM by Alcon »

Tentative legislative district map (I very much doubt any of these are wrong, but there's a small possibility)

Key


Statewide


Puget Sound area


Best Obama
1. 37th (+29.5) - Southeast Seattle, northwest Renton
2. 43rd (+29.3) - Seattle; downtown, Cap Hill, Fremont, University District
3. 40th (+27.Cool - Bellingham, Burlington-Mount Vernon, San Juans
4. 36th (+23.3) - West-central Seattle; Queen Anne, Magnolia, Ballard, Crown Hill
5. 23rd (+20.0) - Bainbridge Island, north Bremerton, Poulsbo, Kingston

Best Clinton
1. 19th (+13.2) -  Aberdeen, Pacific County, Longview, most of Kelso
2. 25th (+11.7) - Puyallup, South Hill, Midland, eastern Tacoma exurbs
3. 2nd (+11.1) - Yelm/Rainier, Orting, Eatonville
4. 29th (+9.3) - South Tacoma, Parkland, east University Place/Lakewood
5. 31st (+7.9) - Auburn, Edgewood, Buckley, Enumclaw

Best Edwards
1. 16th (2.9%) - Benton County South, Pasco, Walla Walla, Dayton
2. 8th (2.7%) - Richland-Kennewick
3. 7th (2.5%) - Northeastern Washington, Airway Heights, Deer Park
4. 19th (2.4%) - Aberdeen, Pacific County, Longview, most of Kelso
5. 35th (2.3%) - Northwestern Grays Harbor, Mason County, Silverdale, parts Bremerton, parts Tumwater
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Alcon
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« Reply #38 on: April 06, 2008, 09:43:10 PM »
« Edited: April 06, 2008, 10:01:24 PM by Alcon »

Congressional:



1st (parts Redmond, Lynnwood, Edmonds, Bainbridge, Silverdale)
Obama 54.60%, Clinton 42.99%, Edwards 1.22%

2nd (Bellingham, Mount Vernon, Whidbey, Everett, Lake Stevens)
Obama 54.19%,Clinton 42.39%, Edwards 1.70%

3rd (Outer Olympia, Centralia, Longview-Kelso, Vancouver)
Clinton 49.39%, Obama 47.07%, Edwards 2.13%

4th (Wenatchee, Ellensburg, Yakima, Tri-Cities)
Clinton 50.12%, Obama 46.19%, Edwards 2.22%

5th (Okanogan, Spokane, Pullman, Walla Walla)
Obama 49.89%, Clinton 46.53%, Edwards 2.17%

6th (Port Angeles, most Bremerton, Tacoma, Grays Harbor)
Obama 48.74%, Clinton 47.82%, Edwards 1.83%

7th (Seattle, most Silverdale, White Center, Vashon)
Obama 59.14%, Clinton 38.23%, Edwards 1.15%

8th (Eastside, Sammamish, east Auburn, Eastern Pierce County)
Obama 51.86%, Clinton 45.98%, Edwards 1.31%

9th (Renton, Federal Way, most Auburn, Puyallup, NE Tacoma, most Olympia)
Clinton 49.18%, Obama 47.76%, Edwards 1.78%
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Meeker
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« Reply #39 on: April 06, 2008, 09:46:46 PM »

Obama carried the 8th but not the 9th? I find that a little odd.
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Alcon
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« Reply #40 on: April 06, 2008, 09:52:07 PM »
« Edited: April 06, 2008, 09:57:55 PM by Alcon »

Best municipalities with over 100 votes cast

Obama
1. Yarrow Point - 75.0%
2. Bainbridge Island - 67.9%
3. Winthrop - 65.0%
4. Cashmere - 64.1%
5. Waterville - 63.4%
6. Twisp - 63.0%
7. Clyde Hill - 62.9%
8. Sammamish - 62.4%
9. Friday Harbor - 62.3%
10. La Conner - 62.2%

So, latte liberals (1,2,7,8), liberal liberals (9,10), mountain resort neo-liberals (3,4,6), and, um, Waterville for some reason (5).

Clinton
1. Mabton - 75.4%
2. Union Gap - 66.6%
3. Granger - 65.6%
4. Moxee - 62.0%
5. Ruston - 61.8%
6. Electric City - 61.3%
7. Sunnyside - 60.7%
8. Napavine - 60.0%
9. Grand Coulee - 60.0%
10. Elma - 59.8%

And Clinton gets Mexicans (1,2,3,4,7) and traditionalist union workers (5,6,8,9,10).

Edwards
1. Kalama - 5.8%
2. Connell - 5.4%
3. Elma - 5.0%
4. Benton City - 4.6%
5. Dayton - 4.4%
6. Coulee Dam - 4.4%
7. Algona - 4.4%
8. Asotin - 3.9%
9. Granite Falls - 3.8%
10. Newport - 3.7%

Hey!  This one is easy: places I'm really glad I don't live (1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10).
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Alcon
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« Reply #41 on: April 06, 2008, 09:54:14 PM »

Obama carried the 8th but not the 9th? I find that a little odd.

The ninth is a lot more working-class, even if people tend to forget the lower middle class leanings of much of the 8th.

Obama got killed in the Pierce County portion of the 8th (53-44) but made it up in places like the Sammamish Plateau and Bellevue.

As for the 9th, Clinton won because she did so well in the Puyallup River Valley and the lower middle class Seattle suburbs.  She carried places like Des Moines and SeaTac pretty well.  Obama did well around Olympia, and carried the Thurston County portion by ten points.  But it wasn't enough.
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Alcon
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« Reply #42 on: April 06, 2008, 10:03:16 PM »

Completion caveats (for documentation):

- *Slightly* incomplete data due to precinct consolidation: Chelan, a few other VERY minor differences (30 votes per county max)

- Some precincts with unclear congressional allocation: King

- No precinct results, so no municipal information: Island, Klickitat, Lincoln, Walla Walla

And I haven't cross-checked my spreadsheet yet...slight chance of minor typos.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #43 on: April 07, 2008, 05:44:35 AM »

How did the largest ten or so cities go [question mark]
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Alcon
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« Reply #44 on: April 07, 2008, 02:28:02 PM »

Seattle: 60-37 Obama
Spokane: 49-47 Obama
Tacoma: 49-48 Clinton
Vancouver: 50-46 Clinton
Bellingham: 62-34 Obama
Bellevue: 55-43 Obama
Spokane Valley: 52-45 Clinton
Everett: 50-47 Clinton
Olympia: 58-37 Obama
Federal Way: 49-48 Obama
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Sbane
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« Reply #45 on: April 27, 2008, 02:23:45 AM »

Is Snoho mostly made up of working class suburbs and eastside Seattle style affluent suburbs? I saw Clinton won in Everett, which I guess is working class due to the boeing factory??? So are the rest of the places more reminiscent of say an affluent area like Sammamish or middle class burbs like Federal Way? Snoho is the only place in metro seattle I have not had a chance to visit and thus have no clue how the area is.
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bgwah
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« Reply #46 on: April 27, 2008, 03:24:33 AM »

Is Snoho mostly made up of working class suburbs and eastside Seattle style affluent suburbs? I saw Clinton won in Everett, which I guess is working class due to the boeing factory??? So are the rest of the places more reminiscent of say an affluent area like Sammamish or middle class burbs like Federal Way? Snoho is the only place in metro seattle I have not had a chance to visit and thus have no clue how the area is.

Yes, mostly. I'm not sure I would call Everett a suburb, though.

Do you live in Washington? You seem very familiar with it.
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Sbane
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« Reply #47 on: April 27, 2008, 03:55:24 AM »

Is Snoho mostly made up of working class suburbs and eastside Seattle style affluent suburbs? I saw Clinton won in Everett, which I guess is working class due to the boeing factory??? So are the rest of the places more reminiscent of say an affluent area like Sammamish or middle class burbs like Federal Way? Snoho is the only place in metro seattle I have not had a chance to visit and thus have no clue how the area is.

Yes, mostly. I'm not sure I would call Everett a suburb, though.

Do you live in Washington? You seem very familiar with it.

I have never lived in Washington but my dad was working in the area for the last couple years. Thus I have made multiple trips there and I have gotten a little familiar with most areas south of seattle. I have never really made up towards snoho and was curious how the area was. Now why do you say that Everett is not a suburb? Is it more on the scale of Tacoma then? Also are the republican areas in Snoho more upscale or exurban( like Orting for example). You guys live in a beautiful part of the country and I would relocate in a second if my career requires it.  Not sure about spending the cold rainy winters there though. Winter is the only time I am glad to be living in Orange county. I would much rather be in a place with more character and Washington certainly seems to have that. But of course without a doubt the bay area is the best place to live. Perfect weather AND surroundings in addition to tolerant and friendly people. Cannot beat that.
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bgwah
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« Reply #48 on: April 30, 2008, 02:37:08 PM »

Now why do you say that Everett is not a suburb? Is it more on the scale of Tacoma then?

Yeah, sort of. Maybe not to the same extent as Tacoma, but you get the idea.

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Exurban, in my opinion.
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