Australia 2007: Costello vs. Rudd

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Let's say in July 2006, Prime Minister of Australia John Winston Howard announces after 10 years in power, that he'll step down as Prime Minister and thus handing the reins over to heir apparent Peter Costello. In late July, Costello is nominated unanimously by the Liberal caucus. For the Deputy Leadership of the Liberal Party, the Liberals select Bruce Baird, the member for Cook.

Like in RL, in December 2006, Kevin Rudd defeats incumbent ALP leader Kim Beazley for the ALP Leadership. Deputy Leader Jenny Macklin steps down from her position and is replaced by Julia Gillard.

How would Costello fare in the 2007 Election against Kevin Rudd. Would he do worse than Howard did on last Saturday or would he do better?

[Platypus]

I believe if Costello took over Beazley would've remained opposition leader. That said, in this situation, I see Costello holding all the Victorian seats, Bennelong probably staying Liberal, and the rest more or less the same.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think Bennelong would've been won by the Labor candidate - the seat is essentially swing/Labor lean in its demographics. With Howard gone, the sentimental vote would've evapporated.

[Platypus]

With Howard gone, McKew would not have run, and I think she is personally responsible for at least 2% more than Howard is in the seat.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't mean McKew, I think whoever the Labor candidate was would have won.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I don't mean McKew, I think whoever the Labor candidate was would have won.

I would have to agree with Polnut on this one. McKew only ran against Howard because she was brought in as one of Krudd's "Celebrity Candidates" to knock off high profile ministers. As I saw on Insight on SBS once, Bennelong only went for the Liberal Party because of Johnny Howard. The day he stepped down, was the day Bennelong would switch to the ALP.

[Smid]

Deakin and Corangamite would have stayed Liberal. Libs may have done better in Sturt in SA, but he won anyway. Maybe wouldn't have lost Makin in SA. Probably wouldn't have influenced Solomon in NT. Probably would have done a little worse in NSW than otherwise, but I can't pick seats there. Would have done worse in Qld, but the Rudd factor swamped that and I think wouldn't have resulted in any changes - including the Liberal (now marginals) of Dickson and Bowman. The Howard effect in Qld was strongest in the outer-suburban seats of Longman, Petrie, Moreton and possibly Forde and Blair, although I think Forde was Liberal more because of the retiring Member rather than the Howard factor, so I don't think that result would have changed. If Beazley had stayed on following the Liberal leadership change, and no Rudd challenge, Dickson wouldn't be marginal and Bowman may not have been and Petrie might still be Liberal and possibly Longman (although that's a tougher call to make). Howard was very popular in Moreton, but Rudd ended up being more popular. Probably would have been the same result there. 

[defe07]

I think a map would look great. Is there any way where we could get a map? It's just not the same without one.

[Hash]

I think a map would look great. Is there any way where we could get a map? It's just not the same without one.