Counties most likely to switch from 2000

[bushforever]

Bushwillwin--

I live in Marquette County, MI, and it definitely won't go Bush. The economy is not too good here and it is a solid union area.

Maybe Marquette County is pushing it.  But I heard about a big Bush rally there that had as many people as the town's population.  I also think the UP is trending away from the Dems.  Unions don't seem to be as much of a factor this year.  Look what happened to Gephardt.  

But you're probably right.  15,000 to 12,000 is a difficult margin to close.  I think I went a little nuts with the MI counties.

[Nym90]

Bushwillwin--

I live in Marquette County, MI, and it definitely won't go Bush. The economy is not too good here and it is a solid union area.

Maybe Marquette County is pushing it.  But I heard about a big Bush rally there that had as many people as the town's population.  I also think the UP is trending away from the Dems.  Unions don't seem to be as much of a factor this year.  Look what happened to Gephardt.  

But you're probably right.  15,000 to 12,000 is a difficult margin to close.  I think I went a little nuts with the MI counties.

Yeah, there was a Bush rally, it wasn't as big as the population of the city though (city population 21,000, rally attendance 12,000). That might help Bush a little here, if Kerry doesn't come here to campaign at all. It won't be enough to swing the county though. A lot of people are still pretty upset about steel tariffs. This area is heavily dependent on iron-ore mining.

[minionofmidas]

I'll make a list of counties Bush won with under 50% of the vote - that'll be my "most likely to switch" list.

[minionofmidas]

I'll make a list of counties Bush won with under 50% of the vote - that'll be my "most likely to switch" list.

Here it comes...it's longer than I expected...

Lincoln
Penobscot
Waldo, all ME

Hillsborough
Rockingham
Sullivan, all NH

Caledonia
Orange
Orleans, all VT

Chautauqua
Chemung
Chenango
Cortland
Dutchess
Essex
Jefferson
Oneida
Orange
Oswego
Otsego
Saratoga, all NY

Cape May
Ocean
Somerset, all NJ

Kent DE

Monroe PA

Columbiana
Harrison
Ottawa
Stark, all OH

Marion
Monroe
Starke
Vigo, all IN

Jersey
Kankakee
Lake
McDonough
Marion
Randolph
Vermilion
Will
Winnebago, all IL

Alger
Gladwin
Saint Clair
Schoharie
Shiawassee, all MI

Barron
Burnett
Chippewa
Iron
Juneau
Kewaunee
Lincoln
Manitowoc
Marathon
Marquette
Polk
Racine
Richland
Washburn
Wood, all WI

Anoka
Beltrami
Blue Earth
Chippewa
Chisago
Cook
Dakota
Goodhue
Grant
Houston
Le Sueur
Nicollet
Norman
Pope
Renville
Stevens
Wabasha
Washington
Watonwan
Yellow Medicine, all MN

Fayette
Jasper
Marshall
Palo Alto
Poweshiek
Warren
Winneshiek
Woodbury, all IA

Clark
Pike
Saint Francois, all MO

Benson, ND

Moody, SD

Thurston, NE

Atchison
Crawford
Shawnee, all KS

Albemarle
Fairfax
King and Queen
Nelson
Westmoreland
Wise Counties
Buena Vista
Fairfax
Redford
Williamsburg Cities, all VA

Hancock
Jefferson
Monongalia
Summers
Wayne, all WV

Baldwin
Chatham
Sumter, all GA

Madison, FL

Greenup
Lyon
Rowan, all KY

Coffee
Moore
Obion, all TN

Chickasaw
Yazoo, all MS

Conway
Fulton
Sevier
Van Buren
Yell, all AR

Allen
De Soto
Natchitoches
Red River
Saint Martin, all LA

Kleberg
Travis, both TX

Missoula, MT

Clear Creek
Conejos
Eagle
Gunnison
La Plata
Routt
San Juan, all CO

Sandoval, NM

Navajo
Pinal, both AZ

Clark
Island
Skagit
Whatcom, all WA

Clackamas
Tillamook, both OR

Alpine
San Bernardino
San Diego
Ventura, all CA

[bushforever]

I'll make a list of counties Bush won with under 50% of the vote - that'll be my "most likely to switch" list.

Here it comes...it's longer than I expected...

Wow!  And I thought I was being over-optimistic and unrealistic with my random list of Gore counties that I thought would go Bush.  I have to give you lots of praise for your research, though.  I think everyone should be watching both Bush counties under 50% and Gore counties under 50%.  I hope both campaigns are taking those close counties seriously.

[TeePee4Prez]

Monroe, PA is definitely possible considering the influx of New Yorkers.

Add Chester and Westmoreland to that list as well.

The New Jersey Counties are all possible as well.

Kent, DE is wishful thinking.

One thign is for sure... Southeastern PA will go Kerry by a MUCH larger margin than Gore in 2000.  I could forsee the following:

Southeastern PA

All for Kerry
Philadelphia: 82%, 80% last time
Montgomery: 62%, 55% last time
Bucks: 57%, 51% last time
Delaware: 57%, 52% (I think) last time
Chester: 53%, Voted Bush marginally last time.

[minionofmidas]

I'll make a list of counties Bush won with under 50% of the vote - that'll be my "most likely to switch" list.

Here it comes...it's longer than I expected...

Wow!  And I thought I was being over-optimistic and unrealistic with my random list of Gore counties that I thought would go Bush.  I have to give you lots of praise for your research, though.  I think everyone should be watching both Bush counties under 50% and Gore counties under 50%.  I hope both campaigns are taking those close counties seriously.

This list is just a starting point really - it doesn't take regional developments into account. Also, some of these, in Colorado for example, are, like, 49% Bush, 35% Gore, 12% Nader, 4% Libertarian, Buchanan, Constitution etc. That kind of place isn't going to vote for Kerry. On the other hand, the list excludes counties from close states where third party candidates did badly (say, in North Carolina, with no county won by Bush with less than 50%) and Bush won 50,1% to 49,3% - and such a county would be a very likely Dem pickup. (I'm currently expecting Kerry to win by 2,5%-3%.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most likely county in the U.S to switch:

Swain, NC

A dead cert IMO