Best case scenarios

[Kaine for Senate '18]

What is the best possible map than you can realistically see happening for each candidate?

Obama wins 389-149 in the EC, and 56-44 in the PV.

McCain wins 359-179 in the EC, and 55-45 in the PV.

[Lief 🗽]

EV 379-165, PV 54%-45%

EV 331-207, PV 52%-46%

[Sam Spade]

In a McCain-Obama race, the best possible result for either side is a 1988 (or 1988 reverse) scenario.  It won't be any greater than that.

[Keystone Phil]

EV 379-165, PV 54%-45%

EV 331-207, PV 52%-46%

Obama's best case scenario means he can take Kansas but McCain's best case means he still loses Minnesota?

[Lief 🗽]

snip

Obama's best case scenario means he can take Kansas but McCain's best case means he still loses Minnesota?

Yeah, Minnesota should probably be flipped.

[perdedor]

EV 379-165, PV 54%-45%

EV 331-207, PV 52%-46%

Obama's best case scenario means he can take Kansas but McCain's best case means he still loses Minnesota?

If Minnesota is the only state that has never voted for Reagan. It has went Republican once in 52 years, no Republican will be winning it any time soon. Write that down. On that note, I doubt that Obama's best case scenario includes a win in Kansas.

[bullmoose88]

As for Minnesota in 1984, rumor was that Reagan felt it bad form to actively campaign and actively try win the state from Walter Mondale.  Don't know how true that story is, but Reagan could have taken MN had he campaigned there a bit more.

[Keystone Phil]

snip

Obama's best case scenario means he can take Kansas but McCain's best case means he still loses Minnesota?

Yeah, Minnesota should probably be flipped.

You also show somewhat of a close contest in pretty safe GOP states like NC, IN and MT. If it's a best case for McCain, he'd win those states with probably close to 60%.

[perdedor]

As for Minnesota in 1984, rumor was that Reagan felt it bad form to actively campaign and actively try win the state from Walter Mondale.  Don't know how true that story is, but Reagan could have taken MN had he campaigned there a bit more.

Perhaps, but it's all speculation. At the end of the day, Mondale still got it's 10 electoral votes. Either way, two wins in 52 years is still pretty bad.

[Lief 🗽]

snip

Obama's best case scenario means he can take Kansas but McCain's best case means he still loses Minnesota?

Yeah, Minnesota should probably be flipped.

You also show somewhat of a close contest in pretty safe GOP states like NC, IN and MT. If it's a best case for McCain, he'd win those states with probably close to 60%.

Well, my best case for McCain would be him beating Obama by 5%, 52 to 47, like I posted. With demographic shifts in NC, and Obama doing better than Kerry in rural areas, MT, IN and NC would stay under 60% by a little bit.

[Tender Branson]

What is the best possible map than you can realistically see happening for each candidate?

Obama wins 389-149 in the EC, and 56-44 in the PV.

McCain wins 359-179 in the EC, and 55-45 in the PV.

TN will never elect Obama, not even in his re-election.

I would also remove MT, NC, WV and FL ...

[Kaine for Senate '18]

snip

Obama's best case scenario means he can take Kansas but McCain's best case means he still loses Minnesota?

Yeah, Minnesota should probably be flipped.

You also show somewhat of a close contest in pretty safe GOP states like NC, IN and MT. If it's a best case for McCain, he'd win those states with probably close to 60%.

Id hardly call NC safe.  It leans GOP, and is on the hard end of leaning, but it is not in the same category as IN.  Likewise with MT.