Obama surging against Hillary among Democratic voters. HOWEVER

[agcatter]

before we swear the guy in, you might want to take a look at the Rasmussen data released today.  I'm not referring to strictly McCain vs Obama matchup percentages.

According to Rasmussen, during this last month of Obamamania: Obama's core opposition has quietly risen 7 points among the general electorate.  His positives are up 5 pts during the same period almost all of that among self identified Democrats.

His core support, core opposition, (definite votefor vs definite vote against) now stands at 34-43.

McCain has quietly had a very solid month.  His core positive vote has gone up 12 pts.  His negative core remains unchanged.  His present core support, core opposition now stands at 34-33.

No doubt the party activists are really fired up about Barack Obama.  There is great enthusiasm among Democrats for the candidate.  No doubt that is very important in a Presidential election and should never be discounted.

However, these numbers suggest that this Obama wave in the days of Potomac and Wisconsin Primary blowouts has not rolled across the general electorate.  Democrats yes, but certainly not independents and certainly not with Republicans.

It's early and one month does not make a trend, but I find these numbers very interesting and quite surprising in light of the momentum Obama has had in recent primaries.

We are NOT presently looking at an Obama blowout in November.  That can change, but these numbers are painting a somewhat different picture from the popular perception.

The general election will be a close, tough election which will boil down to a couple of swing states. 

[Lief 🗽]

Part of it may be that Obama has been attacked for the past month, both by Clinton and McCain, while McCain has essentially been strengthening his base, as Huckabee has completely eschewed negative campaigning.

Obviously though, things are still very fluid. It'll be interesting to see what these numbers are a few weeks after Obama and McCain have both locked up the nomination.

[agcatter]

That very well could be the case.  We will have to see the data over the next several months.

[Duke 🇺🇸]

The new Gallup poll released today has McCain besting Obama 49-48 and Clinton 50-46. Obama is far from in the clear. Lots of delusional Democrats around here may try to tell us otherwise.

[exopolitician]

The new Gallup poll released today has McCain besting Obama 49-48 and Clinton 50-46. Obama is far from in the clear. Lots of delusional Democrats around here may try to tell us otherwise.

Yeah cause a 1 point lead in a February poll 8 months before the actual election is WAY accurate.

[agcatter]

BTW, I now think Obama has pulled ahead in Tx.  Not just polls, but I was listening to an interview with a Democratic operative in South Texas.  He says Clinton's support among Hispanics in South Texas has eroded in the last week substantially.  Seemed like a credible source.

It is true that a one pt lead in the GE means little in February.  However, given the Obamamania that we've seen, it's another bit of evidence that we're in for a very close election.

[Verily]

This is all the NY Times story getting positive press for McCain combining with mudslinging in the Democratic primary.

[agcatter]

Verify, I have to take issue with you about the Times article having an effect.  McCain's numbers vs Obama have stayed the same over the last two wks before and after the Times story at the end of last week.

Something is going on here, but I don't know what.  Heck, maybe it's all "statistical noise".  About all this tells me right now is that we're probably looking at another close election.

[Verily]

Verify, I have to take issue with you about the Times article having an effect.  McCain's numbers vs Obama have stayed the same over the last two wks before and after the Times story at the end of last week.

Err... no, they haven't. Otherwise we wouldn't be having this discussion. McCain has had a distinct national "surge" in his numbers in the last few days.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

agcatter, as an aside, did you change your mind about voting in the primary?

[agcatter]

As a matter of fact, I went ahead and voted today (early voting) and did indeed finally  vote for Obama in the Democratic primary.  I was kind of torn but finally decided what the hell, the Republican race is over and I'm not really all that in to the down the ballot Republican races.

I did it for my country.  The Clintons are not good for America and until I actually see Hillary under Dorothy's house, I decided I couldn't let up.  I've got another engagement the night of the primary so I probably won't caucus.  I think the Democratic activists for Obama won't need my help anyway.  The woman is toast here in Texas and I'll let them actually drive the stake into her heart.  The cultural shock at the Democratic caucus would probably be too much for this Republican anyway.  LOL

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

As a matter of fact, I went ahead and voted today (early voting) and did indeed finally  vote for Obama in the Democratic primary.  I was kind of torn but finally decided what the hell, the Republican race is over and I'm not really all that in to the down the ballot Republican races.

I did it for my country.  The Clintons are not good for America and until I actually see Hillary under Dorothy's house, I decided I couldn't let up.  I've got another engagement the night of the primary so I probably won't caucus.  I think the Democratic activists for Obama won't need my help anyway.  The woman is toast here in Texas and I'll let them actually drive the stake into her heart.  The cultural shock at the Democratic caucus would probably be too much for this Republican anyway.  LOL

LOL and I'm glad you changed your mind.

[agcatter]

A Survey USA poll for Texas will be released in about an hour.  The only teaser is that 25% of total Democratic voters have already voted.  I suspect that is bad news fpr Clinton.  Just a guess.

[True Democrat]

Can early voting people still caucus?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

A Survey USA poll for Texas will be released in about an hour.  The only teaser is that 25% of total Democratic voters have already voted.  I suspect that is bad news fpr Clinton.  Just a guess.

Let us pray

[Lief 🗽]

Can early voting people still caucus?

Yeah, just at a different location.

[agcatter]

Hmm.  Can early voters actually caucus?  Not entirely sure but I think so since both campaigns in Texas have been pushing hard for early voting.

[Lief 🗽]

Hmm.  Can early voters actually caucus?  Not entirely sure but I think so since both campaigns in Texas have been pushing hard for early voting.

They can, but only at their precinct polling location. Not wherever they voted early.

[exopolitician]

I voted early in the Texas Democratic Primary, my first vote cast EVAR

[Verily]

Can early voting people still caucus?

Yes. Technically, all they need is an ID as their names should be recorded as having voted in the primary, but the Obama campaign at least is urging its supporters to keep some sort of tab they get when they vote early to ensure that they're allowed into the caucuses. I'm not that familiar with how things are working, but that's my impression.

[Lincoln Republican]

I'm betting on a third straight Republican administration, like Reagan, Reagan, Bush I.

President John McCain will serve one term, and will either not run in 2012, or will be defeated for re-election in 2012.

Either way, the Democrats will win the White House in 2012.

[Duke 🇺🇸]

I'm betting on a third straight Republican administration, like Reagan, Reagan, Bush I.

President John McCain will serve one term, and will either not run in 2012, or will be defeated for re-election in 2012.

Either way, the Democrats will win the White House in 2012.

With history as our guide, a Republican re-election in 2008 will most certainly lead to a 2012 Democratic victory unless McCain has a wonderful first term and has approval ratings over 60% or so.

[opebo]

We've always known that an Obama victory in the general election is unlikely due to american racism. 

[Michael Z]

before we swear the guy in, you might want to take a look at the Rasmussen data released today.  I'm not referring to strictly McCain vs Obama matchup percentages.

According to Rasmussen, during this last month of Obamamania: Obama's core opposition has quietly risen 7 points among the general electorate.  His positives are up 5 pts during the same period almost all of that among self identified Democrats.

His core support, core opposition, (definite votefor vs definite vote against) now stands at 34-43.

McCain has quietly had a very solid month.  His core positive vote has gone up 12 pts.  His negative core remains unchanged.  His present core support, core opposition now stands at 34-33.

No doubt the party activists are really fired up about Barack Obama.  There is great enthusiasm among Democrats for the candidate.  No doubt that is very important in a Presidential election and should never be discounted.

However, these numbers suggest that this Obama wave in the days of Potomac and Wisconsin Primary blowouts has not rolled across the general electorate.  Democrats yes, but certainly not independents and certainly not with Republicans.

It's early and one month does not make a trend, but I find these numbers very interesting and quite surprising in light of the momentum Obama has had in recent primaries.

We are NOT presently looking at an Obama blowout in November.  That can change, but these numbers are painting a somewhat different picture from the popular perception.

The general election will be a close, tough election which will boil down to a couple of swing states. 

True, I think anyone who suggests that Obama will win by a landslide is living in cloud cuckoo land, but Obama did exceptionally well among indies and Republicans in many mixed caucuses- and primaries, not forgetting the amount of first-time voters he's attracted who weren't on in the radar in 2000 and 2004, which could make all the difference in a close election.

Also, there are some interesting stats from the Nevada primary - while Hillary was able to win the primary because of a good performance in and around Vegas, Obama beat her in many rural areas, in some cases by 3 to 1, some of which are highly conservative and where Kerry struggled to reach the 20% mark in the last general. It doesn't suggest a landslide, but this sort of thing bodes very well for Obama.

[Franzl]

We've always known that an Obama victory in the general election is unlikely due to american racism. 

although that was said before the primaries as well. I don't think there is near as much racism as people claim.