What Bush state(s) can Obama win?

[phk]

What Bush state(s) can Obama win?

[Frodo]

Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico.  Missouri and Virginia could come close. 

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Virginia
Florida
Arkansas
Missouri
Iowa
Ohio
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada

[Aizen]

No way in hell does Obama beat McCain in Arkansas.

[Frodo]

Nor will any Democrat win Florida unless Fidel Castro is dead. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

With a fair degree of confidence
- Iowa
- Colorado
- New Mexico
- Nevada
- Missouri

Not sure, but possible
- Ohio

[© tweed]

he will almost certainly win Iowa.  McCain is a very bad fit there.  he also of course will play well out west and maybe even score the trifecta (NV-CO-NM), plus he has good shots in Virginia, Missouri, and Ohio.  longer shots are Florida and West Virginia.

anything more than that and we'd be talking about a mini-landslide.

[CultureKing]

Virginia
Missouri
Iowa
Ohio
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada
Florida (though much less likely than the others)

[Lief 🗽]

Short of some sort of popular vote landslide:

Iowa
New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada
Missouri
Virginia
Ohio

A win of 8 or so points or more could open up states like:

Florida
North Carolina
Arkansas
Louisiana
Montana
Tennessee

[AltWorlder]

Still hard to say until the VPs are decided.

[Stranger in a strange land]

If it's close:

Iowa
New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada
Ohio
Virginia
Missouri

If he wins by a wider margin:
Florida
Arkansas

Can't win, but he can force McCain to spend money there:
North Carolina
Georgia
Louisiana
Montana
West Virginia

[minionofmidas]

Still hard to say until the VPs are decided.

Well, it says "can", as in "might", so you're presumably asked to err on the side of overconfidence here (or on the side of caution if you're a Republican. )

Considering any state to vote for Bush at least once a "Bush state", that would be...

New Hampshire (duh)
Ohio (though Clinton would do better there)
Indiana (extremely unlikely)
Iowa (duh)
Missouri
North Dakota (grotesquely unlikely, but above 0.0% probability)
South Dakota (ditto)
Virginia
West Virginia (should play better there than John Kerry, anyhow. Mostly because that isn't exactly hard. Clinton would do better)
North Carolina (highly unlikely)
South Carolina (extremely unlikely)
Georgia (extremely unlikely)
Florida (unlikely)
Kentucky (Clinton would do better)
Tennessee (Clinton would do better)
Arkansas (Clinton would do better)
Louisiana (Clinton would do better)
Montana (see Dakotas)
Colorado
New Mexico (duh)
Nevada

Arizona left off list due to homestate bonus, but maybe that's wrong as well.

[Alcon]

Lewis took my list. 

[Gustaf]

Lewis is up to his usual semantics, I see.

I'd say

New Hampshire
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Missouri
Iowa
Virginia
Ohio
Florida

Though some of those I consider unlikely. Beyond that I really doubt Obama would win. That would take something pretty special to happen.

[Alcon]

Lewis is up to his usual semantics, I see.

I'm not sure it's really semantic, so much as an extremely valid point about the race.  It has not started.

[Gustaf]

Lewis is up to his usual semantics, I see.

I'm not sure it's really semantic, so much as an extremely valid point about the race.  It has not started.

I strongly doubt Lewis would bet money on Obama winning South Dakota or Indiana. He likes to be picky about semantics (which I don't mind particularly) and he was pointing out what states Obama *can* win. Of course, interpreting that question literally makes the discussion less interesting, at least in my opinion. But I agree that the race will fluctuate a lot until election day.

[minionofmidas]

Lewis is up to his usual semantics, I see.

I'm not sure it's really semantic, so much as an extremely valid point about the race.  It has not started.

It was sort of both.

[opebo]

In order:

Likely:
1) New Hampshire
2) Iowa
3) New Mexico

Reasonably Possible:
4) Colorado
5) Nevada
6) Ohio

Quite unlikely:
7) Virginia
Missouri

[TheresNoMoney]

In order of likelihood:

Good/decent chance:

1) Iowa
2) Nevada
3) New Mexico
4) Ohio
5) Colorado
6) Missouri
7) Virginia

Small possiblity:

Florida
9) North Carolina
10) West Virginia

[Nym90]

Since the question is which ones he can win, not which ones he will, I'll say Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.