McCain/Sanford vs. Obama/Sebelius

[Frodo]

I thought I'd pick the most likely scenario at this point.

Maps and analysis welcomed. 

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I think Sebelius provides a bigger boom to Obama than Sanford does to McCain, and I give him a 298-240 win the EC.

[Duke 🇺🇸]

Shouldn't Kansas move to tossup/Lean Obama with that VP?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Shouldn't Kansas move to tossup/Lean Obama with that VP?

I see Kansas going to McCain by around 56-43 in this scenario.

[Lincoln Republican]

An excruciatingly close election.

Sebelius does not bring in Kansas for Obama.

The voters decide, very narrowly, to go with experience and with who is more qualified to deal with national security, McCain.

McCain/Sanford              276
Obama/Sebelius             262

I do not believe that realistically Sebelius is a likely VP pick for Obama.

[JSojourner]

No, Sebelius doesn't win Kansas for the ticket...she makes it closer.  Kansas should be 59-61 for McCain but I think it would be more like 52-55 with her on the D ticket.  She might help marginally in Missouri, but I doubt it.

Missouri, West Va., New Hampshire and Colorado were my toughest calls for Obama.

Nevada, New Mexico, Florida and Arkansas were my toughest calls for McCain.  I think McCain will perform well in Virginia, but I do recognize the demographic is shifting.

I was torn at whether to give him Arizona at more than 60%, but I think Obama is popular enough to keep him under 60.

[Lief 🗽]

302 - 236

[opebo]

[Horus]

302 - 236

That's my exact map for this scenario. Its my current prez prediction actually. Good job lol

[Verily]

I generally agree with Lief's map, except with some of the % predictions. And maybe Virginia.

[Alcon]

302 - 236

Good map, with a few exceptions:

- I'd darken North Carolina and Kansas.
- I doubt there will be that many D>60s.
- I'd flip Virginia over.
- I'd not predict it, because it's way too soon. 

[Eleden]

An excruciatingly close election.

Sebelius does not bring in Kansas for Obama.

The voters decide, very narrowly, to go with experience and with who is more qualified to deal with national security, McCain.

McCain/Sanford              276
Obama/Sebelius             262

I do not believe that realistically Sebelius is a likely VP pick for Obama.

Interesting map... although a Republican has never won the Presidency without Ohio, and I seriously doubt we'd betray our historical voting patterns. 

[Lincoln Republican]

An excruciatingly close election.

Sebelius does not bring in Kansas for Obama.

The voters decide, very narrowly, to go with experience and with who is more qualified to deal with national security, McCain.

McCain/Sanford              276
Obama/Sebelius             262

I do not believe that realistically Sebelius is a likely VP pick for Obama.

Interesting map... although a Republican has never won the Presidency without Ohio, and I seriously doubt we'd betray our historical voting patterns. 

Except for the fact that this particular Presidential electon year the GOP is in serious trouble in Ohio.

[Lief 🗽]

I have a very hard time seeing Barack Obama win Ohio but lose Oregon.

[Lincoln Republican]

I have a very hard time seeing Barack Obama win Ohio but lose Oregon.

In which case, in my scenario, McCain 289, Obama 249, even better.

Although I still believe McCain would run well in Oregon.

[หมูเด้ง]

...but he's not.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Barack Obama/Kathleen Sebelius (D): 309 EV
John McCain/Mark Sanford (R): 229 EV

Ohio would be very competitive, but I can sense an Obama victory there, maybe 51-49%. Florida could also go for Obama, but like Ohio I can see that as a competitive state in the Campaign.

[NDN]

I'd be extremely hesitant to give Obama Ohio. And Pennsylvania is in danger too. But he could win Florida despite the prior snubbing, especially now that Castro is gone.

[perdedor]

An excruciatingly close election.

Sebelius does not bring in Kansas for Obama.

The voters decide, very narrowly, to go with experience and with who is more qualified to deal with national security, McCain.

McCain/Sanford              276
Obama/Sebelius             262

I do not believe that realistically Sebelius is a likely VP pick for Obama.

Ugh. Under no circumstances will McCain, especially against Obama, carry the state of Oregon. The whole "I'm a moderate maverick" thing that may have given him a snowball's chance in hell in the state of Oregon in 2008 is now a laughable myth. Either Clinton or Obama would carry the state solidly. Yes, I know the marvelous campaigner that was John Kerry only managed 51% in 2004. However, given the political climate of today...2004 is entirely irrelevant.

[NDN]

Agreed. I don't see McCain as being able to convince voters that he's 'moderate' for much longer, especially after gaffes like '100 years in Iraq' and his relentless attempts to pacify the very reactionaries who he called out 8 years ago.

[opebo]

Agreed. I don't see McCain as being able to convince voters that he's 'moderate' for much longer, especially after gaffes like '100 years in Iraq' and his relentless attempts to pacify the very reactionaries who he called out 8 years ago.

Only extreme-right wingers ever thought he was a 'moderate' anyway.

[Reaganfan]

McCain: 270
Obama: 268

[Tender Branson]

McCain: 270
Obama: 268

I disagree with you on NM (lean Obama - new poll out today by Rasmussen), with OH, VA, MO and NV being uncertain.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

McCain: 270
Obama: 268

I disagree with you on NM (lean Obama - new poll out today by Rasmussen), with OH, VA, MO and NV being uncertain.

It's Naso. He always designs his maps so McCain always wins.

[Reaganfan]

McCain: 270
Obama: 268

I disagree with you on NM (lean Obama - new poll out today by Rasmussen), with OH, VA, MO and NV being uncertain.

It's Naso. He always designs his maps so McCain always wins.

NOT TRUE. I can see an Obama victory...but if Obama loses Florida...and Ohio...it's gonna be hard.