Obama vs. McCain Battleground Update - February 2008

[Tender Branson]

Now that SurveyUSA and Rasmussen have released a package of new state polls, I decided to create a new map which includes the average of these polls.

Where Rasmussen and SUSA didn´t poll, I used the latest state poll - but not one that is older than 1 month.

Results for MO, OH and VA were within 2%, they are therefore toss-ups.

WV wasn´t polled by either Rasmussen or SUSA yet, but I think the state is close this year, therefore toss-up.

Also, there was no poll out of AR so far including Obama vs. McCain -> toss-up as well.

Bright blue and red are for states with no recent polls - but with historic leanings.

So this is the February 2008 map: 



Everything correct ?

[Josh/Devilman88]

Now that SurveyUSA and Rasmussen have released a package of new state polls, I decided to create a new map which includes the average of these polls.

Where Rasmussen and SUSA didn´t poll, I used the latest state poll - but not one that is older than 1 month.

Results for MO, OH and VA were within 2%, they are therefore toss-ups.

WV wasn´t polled by either Rasmussen or SUSA yet, but I think the state is close this year, therefore toss-up.

Also, there was no poll out of AR so far including Obama vs. McCain -> toss-up as well.

Bright blue and red are for states with no recent polls - but with historic leanings.

So this is the February 2008 map: 



Everything correct ?

Move NC to lean/toss-up and move SC, OK and MS to strong Republican and it is right.

[Tender Branson]

Move NC to lean/toss-up and move SC, OK and MS to strong Republican and it is right.

SC, OK and MS are in light blue, which means that there have been no recent state polls - but they are still strongly Republican. As for NC, there has been no poll that has shown Obama within 3% of McCain.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Move NC to lean/toss-up and move SC, OK and MS to strong Republican and it is right.

SC, OK and MS are in light blue, which means that there have been no recent state polls - but they are still strongly Republican. As for NC, there has been no poll that has shown Obama within 3% of McCain.

Oh, SUSA and Ram. hasn't polled NC in a while too. The only one that has was PPP.

[Aizen]

Let's see a Clinton vs McCain map

[Tender Branson]

Let's see a Clinton vs McCain map

Let's see:



Again, light colors indicate no recent state poll - while darker shades indicate an average lead of more than 2% by the respective candidate.

To note: AR and WV weren´t polled so far, but expect the polls to show a close race (maybe McCain ahead in WV, Clinton ahead in AR).

OH, PA and NH are about +2 for Clinton when the latest Rasmussen, SUSA and Quinnipiac polls are averaged -> Toss-up. WA is +2 for McCain.

MN is within 1% when averaged. MI is exactly tied. MO is +3 for Clinton.

[Person Man]

If the Election were held today:

Hillary/McCain 48.5-50.5- Hillary better get her ass out west of the Mississippi 

She will need to win back the NW to tie and to win a midwestern or western state to win.

[Saxwsylvania]

I agree with your maps, Angry Weasel, though I would be a little more favorable to Obama.  After all, we are at the height of Obamamania - not its nadir.

[Gustaf]

You think Arkansas is a tossup? That seems unlikely, to say the least.

[Tender Branson]

You think Arkansas is a tossup? That seems unlikely, to say the least.

Rasmussen will soon release AR and WV polls that will include Obama vs. McCain for the first time.

I expect something like:

WV: McCain+5 against Obama, McCain+3 against Clinton

AR: McCain+5 against Obama, Clinton+3 against McCain

[Reaganfan]

The really light color means close, but likely to the shaded party.

McCain: 245
Obama: 224
Battle: 69

[Person Man]

Never thought that Colorado would be MORE liberal than country as a whole.

[Gustaf]

You think Arkansas is a tossup? That seems unlikely, to say the least.

Rasmussen will soon release AR and WV polls that will include Obama vs. McCain for the first time.

I expect something like:

WV: McCain+5 against Obama, McCain+3 against Clinton

AR: McCain+5 against Obama, Clinton+3 against McCain

Arkansas is a Southern state with a low black population and which is the home state of Hillary Clinton (in reality), giving her 70% of the primary vote. I'd be extremely suprised if they went for Obama in the general election.

[phk]

You think Arkansas is a tossup? That seems unlikely, to say the least.

Rasmussen will soon release AR and WV polls that will include Obama vs. McCain for the first time.

I expect something like:

WV: McCain+5 against Obama, McCain+3 against Clinton

AR: McCain+5 against Obama, Clinton+3 against McCain

Arkansas is a Southern state with a low black population and which is the home state of Hillary Clinton (in reality), giving her 70% of the primary vote. I'd be extremely suprised if they went for Obama in the general election.

WV and AR are only swing states/Dem states if Clinton is the nominee, period.