Will Connecticut be a swing state in 2008?

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Some lunatics seem tot think so, supposedly because Lieberman will help McCain so much.

[Duke 🇺🇸]

Probably not, but it could be in play. It's not as ludicrous to think it will be as opposed to Kansas, which went to the GOP with 60% in the past two election cycles.

Get real.

[TheGlobalizer]

Spam war.

[Lief 🗽]

McCain can't win Kerry (or Gore) states.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Probably not, but it could be in play. It's not as ludicrous to think it will be as opposed to Kansas, which went to the GOP with 60% in the past two election cycles.

Get real.

McCain 303
Obama 235

Obama does better out west but McCain does well in the NE with the help of Lieberman in Connecticut. He takes Pennsylvania and New Hampshire by small margins.

[© tweed]

well, no, but it doesn't necessarily make them 'lunatics' -  Bush got 44% and McCain should play better in New England and the tri-state than Bush did.

except, of course, that the 9/11 bounce Bush enjoyed in Fairfield likely will not translate to McCain (I think this was worth 1-2% in CT and a bit more in NY and NJ, but that's not a scientific analysis).  and another problem would be that McCain would have to buy air time in the NYC market and rely on spillovers, which gets expensive.

Obama should win it by 8-10%.  (he might do better in, say, Oregon, than he goes in CT or even MA.  a bit of a stretch, but you get my point)

[Keystone Phil]

McCain can't win Kerry (or Gore) states.

...but Obama can win safe Bush states?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think it'll be similar to the 2004 result.

[Sam Spade]

The 9/11 effect and removal of Lieberman as VP helped Bush a bit - McCain certainly won't get the former.  However, I have to presuppose that Connecticut is the type of state where Bush ran terribly and McCain should run a bit stronger.  Stronger than Dole 1996 vs. popular vote average?  I could see it.  As strong as the native Bush 41, I doubt it.

It's more of a "swing state" than Kansas is, but I suspect it would have to be McCain +5% nationally to be close locally.  Who knows?

[Lief 🗽]

McCain can't win Kerry (or Gore) states.

...but Obama can win safe Bush states?

Obama has more appeal to independent-thinking rural voters than the warmonger does to the anti-war state of Connecticut.

[Joe Kakistocracy]

Obama has more appeal to independent-thinking rural voters than the warmonger does to the anti-war state of Connecticut.

And that includes Kansas... how?  By your logic, Obama should win every single state west of the Mississippi river.

[perdedor]

Absolutely not. No liberal state is going to vote for warmongering John McInsane.

[Sam Spade]

McCain can't win Kerry (or Gore) states.

...but Obama can win safe Bush states?

Obama has more appeal to independent-thinking rural voters than the warmonger does to the anti-war state of Connecticut.

The anti-war state of Connecticut must've gotten confused when voting for Lieberman last year.

Not to mention that the war is dying as an issue - dying quite fast actually.

[Lief 🗽]

McCain can't win Kerry (or Gore) states.

...but Obama can win safe Bush states?

Obama has more appeal to independent-thinking rural voters than the warmonger does to the anti-war state of Connecticut.

The anti-war state of Connecticut must've gotten confused when voting for Lieberman last year.

Not to mention that the war is dying as an issue - dying quite fast actually.

I wasn't aware that McCain was a three-term incumbent Senator of Connecticut.

Well, it depends on how Obama runs his campaign, but if the campaign is run on foreign policy (which is what McCain seems to want to do), I don't see how Iraq doesn't get brought up.

[Ebowed]

Depends on who the Democratic nominee is.

Hillary Clinton couldn't even win this state during a primary.  Her chances in the general don't look good.

[Sam Spade]

McCain can't win Kerry (or Gore) states.

...but Obama can win safe Bush states?

Obama has more appeal to independent-thinking rural voters than the warmonger does to the anti-war state of Connecticut.

The anti-war state of Connecticut must've gotten confused when voting for Lieberman last year.

Not to mention that the war is dying as an issue - dying quite fast actually.

I wasn't aware that McCain was a three-term incumbent Senator of Connecticut.

So in other words, being anti-war isn't really that important after all.  Thanks.

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It'll get brought up, but will it be *on the voter's minds*, more specifically on the minds of those voters who might actually switch their vote (of which there will be quite a few more this year than usual, should it be Obama v. McCain)

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

McCain can't win Kerry (or Gore) states.

...but Obama can win safe Bush states?

Well see Phil, there wan ARG poll of eight Utah college students that show Obama up by 5 points there, so clearly Obama will win everything, everywhere.  Every precinct in America will go 100% for Obama, except for one small precinct in Arizona where they allow McCain to vote for himself.  I fail to understand why we are even having an election, when clearly Obama will win the election with 105% of the vote.  Clearly the campaigns should be ended, polls should be closed, and no more voting should occur since the dude who was a state legislator just four years ago will so clearly defeat an American hero.

[exopolitician]

McCain can't win Kerry (or Gore) states.

...but Obama can win safe Bush states?

Well see Phil, there wan ARG poll of eight Utah college students that show Obama up by 5 points there, so clearly Obama will win everything, everywhere.  Every precinct in America will go 100% for Obama, except for one small precinct in Arizona where they allow McCain to vote for himself.

How old are you....11...12? Honestly...

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

McCain can't win Kerry (or Gore) states.

...but Obama can win safe Bush states?

Well see Phil, there wan ARG poll of eight Utah college students that show Obama up by 5 points there, so clearly Obama will win everything, everywhere.  Every precinct in America will go 100% for Obama, except for one small precinct in Arizona where they allow McCain to vote for himself.

How old are you....15...16? Honestly...

Then I would be some sort of emo Obama supporter probably...

[exopolitician]

McCain can't win Kerry (or Gore) states.

...but Obama can win safe Bush states?

Well see Phil, there wan ARG poll of eight Utah college students that show Obama up by 5 points there, so clearly Obama will win everything, everywhere.  Every precinct in America will go 100% for Obama, except for one small precinct in Arizona where they allow McCain to vote for himself.

How old are you....15...16? Honestly...

Then I would be some sort of emo Obama supporter probably...

Way to defend yourself and make you seem more mature than you really are. Moron.

[Wiz in Wis]

back on topic... the swing states this election will be moderately high black population states with evangelicals staying home. Virginia, Missouri, maybe North Carolina

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The only Kerry states that are swing states are Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

[War on Want]

Kerry Swing States:
Winsconsin, and Pennsylvania

Bush Swing States:
New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada
Virginia
Iowa
Missouri
Ohio
Arkansas


I think you guys might have a problem in November....

[Jake]

Uh:

Arkansas is competitive only with Clinton on the ticket, so with Obama-McCain (accepting your swing states) the race is D-221, R-216; ie, essentially equal with 70/101 EVs to be decided in states the GOP won.

[Duke 🇺🇸]

Uh:

Arkansas is competitive only with Clinton on the ticket, so with Obama-McCain (accepting your swing states) the race is D-221, R-216; ie, essentially equal with 70/101 EVs to be decided in states the GOP won.

I would add New Hampshire to that list of tossups. The state is taylor made for McCain. They are very anti-tax and pro-gun. Yes, yes, I know they are also very anti-war, but the war is not front-page news like Obama supporters keep saying. McCain has a chance to carry New Hampshire--it at least warrants a tossup naming.