Will Kansas be a swing state in 2008?

[Keystone Phil]

Some lunatics think it will be close...

[YRABNNRM]

NO BUT OKLAHOMA WILL!!! CHANGE YOUR MAPS!!!!! REMOVE MY ACCOUNT!!!!!!!

[Duke 🇺🇸]

Every state will be lean to strong Obama, Phil. Haven't you learned that yet?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No, but I think it will be closer than the last two elections.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

No

[Lief 🗽]

If Sebelius is on the bottom of the ticket and Obama attempts to win it, yes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the election is an Obama landslide, it will be close. If not, it'll be closer than recently, but then that's not saying much; Bush's 2004 win in the state was large even by historical standards.

[Mr. Morden]

How do you define "swing state"?  Because I could be persuaded to agree with Al that:

If the election is an Obama landslide, it will be close.

But then, if the election is an Obama landslide, what happens on a state-by-state level is irrelevant, as Obama is going to win anyway.  I've always defined "swing state" to mean "a state that could go either way in a nearly 50/50 election".

My question for Lief is: Do you think that Obama might actually win Kansas if it's really close nationally?  Or is the only way he could win it (with Sebelius on the ticket) if he wins by such a large margin nationally that the outcome in Kansas is irrelevant?

[© tweed]

McCain by around 12%, perhaps in single digits if Sebelius is the selection.  but it won't be a 'swing state' because it isn't big enough and is too geographically isolated to make a serious effort in (although Obama organized amazingly in these types of states in the caucuses so, who knows)

[Josh/Devilman88]

No, but I think it will be closer than the last two elections.

[Duke 🇺🇸]

If Sebelius is on the bottom of the ticket and Obama attempts to win it, yes.

Maybe McCain should pick a Republican governor of a Democratic state to swing it his way. Vermont? Hawaii? Connecticut? The choices are endless!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If Sebelius is on the bottom of the ticket and Obama attempts to win it, yes.

Maybe McCain should pick a Republican governor of a Democratic state to swing it his way. Vermont? Hawaii? Connecticut? The choices are endless!

I think McCain having a VP who could win in any of those states would do him no favours with the conservatives he NEEDS to win over.

[Sam Spade]

If the election is an Obama landslide, it will be close. If not, it'll be closer than recently, but then that's not saying much; Bush's 2004 win in the state was large even by historical standards.

In other words, instead of +23% of Bush's popular vote average, somewhere in the range of 15%-20%.  Or are you thinking something less than that? - b/c I could see it possibly being 10%-15% of popular vote average.

What is your definition of landslide, btw?

Otherwise, I agree.

[opebo]

Of course it won't be, but I think it is the state with the largest gap between Clinton's polling against McCain and Obama's.  So he would probably make it closer.  'whats the matter with kansas' will be less glaringly obvious, perhaps.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No. It will be closer, however.

[Lief 🗽]

How do you define "swing state"?  Because I could be persuaded to agree with Al that:

If the election is an Obama landslide, it will be close.

But then, if the election is an Obama landslide, what happens on a state-by-state level is irrelevant, as Obama is going to win anyway.  I've always defined "swing state" to mean "a state that could go either way in a nearly 50/50 election".

My question for Lief is: Do you think that Obama might actually win Kansas if it's really close nationally?  Or is the only way he could win it (with Sebelius on the ticket) if he wins by such a large margin nationally that the outcome in Kansas is irrelevant?

If it's 50-50, no. But as I've said time and time again, I don't think that 2008 is going to be another 50-50 election. I think it'll be closer to a 1980 or a 1988. So, of course it'll be irrelevant, because he'll already have won IA, OH, MO, NV, CO, NM, etc.

[Democratic Hawk]

Doubt it

[exopolitician]

Depends on how the state of the race is coming out of the summer. Same for Connecticut or whatever other states are close. Right now though I say no.

[Jake]

If Sebelius is on the bottom of the ticket and Obama attempts to win it, yes.

That's lol worthy. Dole won 54% while losing by 9 pts. nationally. That indicates a certain degree of safe-ness, even in a big Obama win.

[Lief 🗽]

If Sebelius is on the bottom of the ticket and Obama attempts to win it, yes.

That's lol worthy. Dole won 54% while losing by 9 pts. nationally. That indicates a certain degree of safe-ness, even in a big Obama win.

Dole's from Kansas. Not completely disagreeing with you, but that's definitely an extra variable added to the equation that obviously won't show up this time (and if anything, Obama will have a the home-state advantage in Kansas).

[Eraserhead]

I voted yes, completely out of spite.

[Keystone Phil]

I voted yes, completely out of spite.

You really didn't need to post confirmation that you dislike me, Eraserhead. It's well known.   

[Eraserhead]

I voted yes, completely out of spite.

You really didn't need to post confirmation that you dislike me, Eraserhead. It's well known.   

I actually don't particularly dislike you and you have made useful contributions. You just act like too much of a smartass at times.

[Keystone Phil]

I voted yes, completely out of spite.

You really didn't need to post confirmation that you dislike me, Eraserhead. It's well known.   

I actually don't particularly dislike you and you have made useful contributions. You just act like too much of a smartass at times.

Yes, I can be a smartass but with all due respect, so can you and many others here. Don't vote that Kansas will be a swing state just to "spite" me.

[Aizen]

If Romney was the nominee... maybe. Not against McCain though. Obama can do decently though. And by decently I mean maybe 42%. Kansas is still a solid red state no matter how you slice it.