Seriously, Does Anyone Still Give Clinton A 50% Chance At The Nomination?

[Lincoln Republican]

Does anyone still give Clinton a 50% chance at the nomination?

Or, post Wisconsin, what are her odds now?

Please discuss.

[Lief 🗽]

20-30%.

On the other hand, the only way she could win the nomination at this point would drop her chance of winning the general to like 10%.

[exopolitician]

20-30%.

On the other hand, the only way she could win the nomination at this point would drop her chance of winning the general to like 10%.

^^

[perdedor]

I give her about a 5% chance at winning the nomination, as to have even a snowball's chance in hell she'd have to win out the rest of the states by fairly large margins.

[Reignman]

About 17% now.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

About 10–15%.

[Erc]

She's got to win all 3 of TX/OH/PA (maybe 50% chance at that, something can always go wrong)

And then, she has to win the nomination (at best 33% if she wins those)


So, 17%, as Reignman said.

[หมูเด้ง]

I am happy with the intrade assesment.

[Iosif is a COTHO]

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Yep.

Hillary Clinton will not be President.

But if she doesn't get out of the way soon, Obama chances of getting the White House will drop as well.

[Eraserhead]

About 20%.

[minionofmidas]

It's over. She should drop out.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'll say a 25-40% chance at the nomination.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No. I don't really like giving percentages on this sort of thing, but her chances of nomination are getting low now, which is actually quite astonishing when you consider the position she was in just a few weeks ago; her campaign after Obese Tuesday has been unbelievably inept.

Still, this has been an odd race and odd things may still happen. But they won't (barring some currently unknown, and serious, scandal) if the Obama campaign doesn't go sloppy and avoids slipping into hubris.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Obama now has a better chance than Hillary did at any point in the campaign, including way back during her "inevitability"

[MODU]

No, I don't think she'll get the nomination.  But, I do give her a 60% chance of sending this thing to the convention by denying Obama enough delegates (compliments of Florida and Michigan) to secure the nomination outright.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

No, I don't think she'll get the nomination.  But, I do give her a 60% chance of sending this thing to the convention by denying Obama enough delegates (compliments of Florida and Michigan) to secure the nomination outright.

The DNC are not going to reinstate Florida and Michigan's delegates because Hillary whines a lot about it. Florida and Michigan really have zero leverage here.

[MODU]

No, I don't think she'll get the nomination.  But, I do give her a 60% chance of sending this thing to the convention by denying Obama enough delegates (compliments of Florida and Michigan) to secure the nomination outright.

The DNC are not going to reinstate Florida and Michigan's delegates because Hillary whines a lot about it. Florida and Michigan really have zero leverage here.

You missed my point.  Michigan (156 delegates) and Florida (210 delegates) had a lot of total delegates which are not in play now, making it harder for Obama to win the nomination outright.  Even if he beats her in Texas and Ohio, it won't be by much, meaning the two of them will still be in a tight race come time for the convention, with neither of them reaching the 2025 needed.