What if Obama never gave the keynote address at the 2004 Democratic convention?

[True Democrat]

Well?

[exopolitician]

Its how he was recognized in American Politics. If he had not given the speech he wouldnt have been as popular as he was and most likely would have not decided to run for President.

[perdedor]

Most likely wouldn't have run for President.

[angus]

another one of these....


What if the moon were made out of gold?  Or Mars were made out of Universal Health Care?  If that were the case, we might bet that the Democrats wouldn't sneer at President Bush's suggestion that we put more focus on space exploration if that were the case.  Then again, if Mars were made of something the Democrats like, the Democrats probably wouldn't like it, would they?

okay, I'll play along:  if Obama never gave the keynote address I probably wouldn't have heard of him.  So I probably wouldn't have posted, "Obama, that reminds me of the Crimson Tide.  Didn't Joe Scarborough go to Alabama, by the way?"  a few of years ago when the name Obama first appeared on this forum.  And ultimately no one would have elected him to the United States Senate.  And therefore he wouldn't have had the pulpit to make all those eloquent, unifying speeches.  And therefore he would not have been running for US President now.  And therefore he wouldn't be the favorite choice of approximately 15% of all registered Republicans, 42% of all unaffiliated voters, and 51% of all Democrats just now.  Would he?

Is that pretty much the answer you're looking for?

[Jake]

He'd be another Ken Salazar. A minority elected in 2004 without much of anything distinguishing him on the national stage. He would never have even considered running for President; how would a three year Senator without national name ID among even political buffs challenge Hillary?

[Verily]

Would not be running for President right now. Probably would run in the future; oratory skill like his doesn't sit in the Senate.

[angus]

so you also said, "he would be doing about the same"

Yeah, I figure he's a fairly grounded, happy person with no need for brand-name legislative agendas. So I figured he'd be just as wealthy and just as happy either way.  About the same, whether he ran for president in 2008, 2016, 2024, or at all.  By the way, that's what attracts so many folks--from all points on the socioeconomic spectrum--to his campaign.  Call it empty if you will, but there's something refreshing about a man who can content himself with a senate record that doesn't include any famous bills with his name on it.  It may be best for all of us if he gets out now and runs for executive office.  The senate has a way of making even the best of men smell foul.  Let him be a George Washington type president.  Two solid, war-free, recession-free, uneventful, boring terms would be, in my opinion, something of a blessing.

[pragmatic liberal]

He'd be a prominent up-and-comer in the Democratic Party. But he wouldn't be running for president.

In November 2004, he'd have defeated a Republican replacement candidate who wasn't Al Keyes, by about 20 points and come into the Senate waving a wave a publicity that would have been well short of the wave he received in real life. He might have been picked either in '05 or '06 to give the Democratic response to the SOTU. He'd do surrogate campaigning in '06. His first book would have been republished.

He actually might have been more active in the first year, rather than keep his head down (he did that because he had already become a celebrity and didn't want to bruise egos). But he wouldn't have gotten a book deal for a second book yet.

In short, he'd be considered a rising star, but he wouldn't be running for president right now. Maybe there'd be VP buzz, but mainly he would be looking ahead to 2012 or 2016.

Meanwhile, Clinton would be the presumptive nominee right now. She would have lost Iowa, South Carolina and several Southern primaries to John Edwards, but she would have put him away on Super Tuesday. The third place candidate would have been Evan Bayh, who would have come in third in Iowa, third in New Hampshire and then withdrawn.

Maybe Obama would be giving her keynote speech in Denver.

[Lincoln Republican]

All candidates seeking the Presidency start from somewhere.

One could reasonably ask if Hillary Clinton's husband had not been elected President, would Hillary Clinton, who became a household name as First Lady for eight years, ever have been in a position to run for President, or, in fact, would she ever have been in a position to run for Senator from New York?

If Eisenhower had not fast tracked Nixon's public career in 1952 by picking him for Vice Pesident, would Nixon have been positioned to run for President as the Republican nominee in 1960?

As to Obama, and his well received speech at the 2004 Democratic convention, my personal view is that Obama is a very ambitious, smart, and charismatic politician, and that he would still be running for President in 2008.  That was likely something he had been planning all along, since entering Illinois state politics.  2004 convention speech or not, had Obama run the smart campaign he has run in 2008, and had Clinton run the not so smart campaign she has run in 2008, I would say Obama would be at about the place he is now in the campaign.  The 2004 convention speech turned out to be a bonus for Obama.

[Erc]

He'd be a prominent up-and-comer in the Democratic Party. But he wouldn't be running for president.

In November 2004, he'd have defeated a Republican replacement candidate who wasn't Al Keyes, by about 20 points and come into the Senate waving a wave a publicity that would have been well short of the wave he received in real life. He might have been picked either in '05 or '06 to give the Democratic response to the SOTU. He'd do surrogate campaigning in '06. His first book would have been republished.

He actually might have been more active in the first year, rather than keep his head down (he did that because he had already become a celebrity and didn't want to bruise egos). But he wouldn't have gotten a book deal for a second book yet.

In short, he'd be considered a rising star, but he wouldn't be running for president right now. Maybe there'd be VP buzz, but mainly he would be looking ahead to 2012 or 2016.

Meanwhile, Clinton would be the presumptive nominee right now. She would have lost Iowa, South Carolina and several Southern primaries to John Edwards, but she would have put him away on Super Tuesday. The third place candidate would have been Evan Bayh, who would have come in third in Iowa, third in New Hampshire and then withdrawn.

Maybe Obama would be giving her keynote speech in Denver.

Bayh pulled out of the race in December, well before it was clear that Obama was running.  Maybe Bayh knew more than I did, but somehow I don't think Obama's absence would have affected his decision not to run.

Either Richardson or Biden would have done better, presumably...though probably not well enough to place better than 3rd anywhere.

[pragmatic liberal]

He'd be a prominent up-and-comer in the Democratic Party. But he wouldn't be running for president.

In November 2004, he'd have defeated a Republican replacement candidate who wasn't Al Keyes, by about 20 points and come into the Senate waving a wave a publicity that would have been well short of the wave he received in real life. He might have been picked either in '05 or '06 to give the Democratic response to the SOTU. He'd do surrogate campaigning in '06. His first book would have been republished.

He actually might have been more active in the first year, rather than keep his head down (he did that because he had already become a celebrity and didn't want to bruise egos). But he wouldn't have gotten a book deal for a second book yet.

In short, he'd be considered a rising star, but he wouldn't be running for president right now. Maybe there'd be VP buzz, but mainly he would be looking ahead to 2012 or 2016.

Meanwhile, Clinton would be the presumptive nominee right now. She would have lost Iowa, South Carolina and several Southern primaries to John Edwards, but she would have put him away on Super Tuesday. The third place candidate would have been Evan Bayh, who would have come in third in Iowa, third in New Hampshire and then withdrawn.

Maybe Obama would be giving her keynote speech in Denver.

Bayh pulled out of the race in December, well before it was clear that Obama was running.  Maybe Bayh knew more than I did, but somehow I don't think Obama's absence would have affected his decision not to run.

Either Richardson or Biden would have done better, presumably...though probably not well enough to place better than 3rd anywhere.

Bayh formed an exploratory committee in November 2006 and disbanded it by December. And it seemed to be that he decided the odds were to great. Obama clearly seems to have factored into those odds.

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[Bacon King]

So I figured he'd be just as wealthy

Probably not, actually. The big thing that gave him wealth was his book sales. Had he not given the speech at the DNC, his first book wouldn't have sold at all and he would have never written his second book.

[angus]

So I figured he'd be just as wealthy

Probably not, actually. The big thing that gave him wealth was his book sales. Had he not given the speech at the DNC, his first book wouldn't have sold at all and he would have never written his second book.

That's a good point.  I'd forgotten the source of his money, but after you posted this I looked it up.  By all accounts the title of the book "The Audacity of Hope" was a phrase from the speech he gave in July 2004.  He was apparently referring to optimism, but the line is quoted quite a bit on the internet.  According to an November 2006 NYT book review in which it was called a "surprise best seller" the book had about eight hundred sixty thousand copies in circulation at that time, putting it in first place on their non-fiction best-seller list.  No doubt the review itself also boosted sales.  Given that the source of his wealth is recent, and mostly due to book sales, I think it's safe to say that the speech not only gave him a book title but enough money to spread around.  Still, WaPo says he's the only major candidate of either party who isn't a multimillionaire.  I guess they're not counting Biden, who isn't rich.  McCain, Clinton, Edwards, Brownback, Romney, and Giuliani are all apparently rich, though, and have been for some time.  If it hadn't been for the speech, Obama would be about like Biden, worth only a few hundred thousand dollars.  Poor by the standards of folks who run for president.

[Joe Kakistocracy]

You know what's interesting?  Back at the 1988 convention, fresh-faced Governor of Arkansas Bill Clinton gave the keynote speech, which most people felt was over-long and incredibly dull.  Four years later he ran for and won the nomination, and subsequently the election.

Don't ask me what point I'm making here. 

[Kaine for Senate '18]

He certainly would not be running in '08.  He may have been running later on, after some years in the Senate, but not now.