who do you THINK will win the Democratic nomination?

[© tweed]

May 2006

Mark Warner 42.5%
Hillary Clinton 37.5%
Al Gore 6.3%
John Edwards 3.1%
Other 10.9%

August 2006

Mark Warner 37.2%
Russ Feingold 20.9%
Hillary Clinton 20.9%
Al Gore 11.6%
John Edwards 4.7%
Other 4.7%

November 2006

Hillary Clinton 43.2%
Barack Obama 24.3%
Al Gore 10.8%
Evan Bayh 10.8%
John Edwards 5.4%
Other (excl. Feingold) 5.4%

March 2007

Hillary Clinton 41.7%
Barack Obama 27.8%
John Edwards 5.6%
Al Gore 2.8%
Other 22.2% [most of these people with Richardson in mind]

April 2007

Barack Obama 35.2%
Hillary Clinton 27.8%
John Edwards 18.5%
Bill Richardson 13%
Al Gore 3.7%
Other 1.9%

June 2007

Hillary Clinton 44%
Barack Obama 32%
Al Gore 16%
John Edwards 4%
Other (excl. Richardson) 4%

July 2007

Hillary Clinton 55.6%
Barack Obama 20%
Al Gore 11.1%
Bill Richardson 8.9%
John Edwards 2.2%
Other 2.2%

August 2007

Hillary Clinton 70.5%
Barack Obama 11.4%
Bill Richardson 9.1%
John Edwards 6.8%
Other (excl. Gore) 2.3%

September 2007

Hillary Clinton 71.2%
Barack Obama 13.6%
John Edwards 8.5%
Bill Richardson 5.1%
Al Gore 1.7%

October 2007

Hillary Clinton 80.8%
Al Gore 7.7%
Barack Obama 3.8%
John Edwards 3.8%
Bill Richardson 1.9%
Other 1.9%

November 2007

Hillary Clinton 62.2%
Barack Obama 26.7%
John Edwards 11.1%

December 21-23, 2007

Hillary Clinton 46.7%
Barack Obama 37.8%
John Edwards 15.6%

December 31, 2007 - January 2, 2008

Hillary Clinton 46.2%
Barack Obama 33.3%
John Edwards 20.5%

January 5-8, 2008

Barack Obama 78.4%
Hillary Clinton 19.6%
Al Gore 2%

January 10-13, 2008

Hillary Clinton 56.4%
Barack Obama 40%
Al Gore 3.6%

January 21-23, 2008

Hillary Clinton 79.1%
Barack Obama 19.4%
Al Gore 1.5%

January 31-February 2, 2008

Hillary Clinton 59.7%
Barack Obama 38.7%
Al Gore 1.6%

February 6-8, 2008

Barack Obama 53.8%
Hillary Clinton 40.4%
Al Gore 3.8%
other 1.9%

[Хahar 🤔]

January 5-8, 2008

Barack Obama 78.4%
Hillary Clinton 19.6%
Al Gore 2%

January 21-23, 2008

Hillary Clinton 79.1%
Barack Obama 19.4%
Al Gore 1.5%

LOL at fluctuations. But I'll go with the flow...Obama.

[Ben.]

As things stand... Barack Obama, I'm starting to think it's too far back for Clinton now, the chances of her securing the massive wins in OH and TX she needs are just too slim.

[Alcon]

Obama is favored.

[Jake]

Obama, but saying it's over at this point is stupid. Maybe once he starts leading in TX and OH polls.

[Sam Spade]

Something along the lines of what Jake and Alcon just said.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As the three posts above, more or less, but also:

An important question is this; how typical are working class Democrats in Wisconsin of working class Democrats elsewhere? There are good reasons to answer both ways to that one so...

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Listening to Obama's speech last night (and the fact he cut off Clinton's speech mid-stream), Obama is talking like he already won......and he may be right.

[exopolitician]

Hes raised $36 million in Jan [not yet known for february], he finally leads nationally among hispanics 50-48, and the race is practically tied in Texas and he only trails 9 points in the last Ohio poll. Clinton has to get 65% of the delegates in 9 states to overtake Obama in the delegate count. Unless Obama blows it big time or something happens, I honestly dont know how she could steal it from him.

Though if shes still in the race, then its hardly considered over. She'll stay in until the convention most likely.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obama is talking like he already won......and he may be right.

If he does actually think that, then the chances of him dropping the ball are rather high.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Obama is talking like he already won......and he may be right.

If he does actually think that, then the chances of him dropping the ball are rather high.

Maybe, but he is so careful in his words, and he's got a platoon of people making sure he doesn't.  The same group that turned him into a super-candidate.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton has to get 65% of the delegates in 9 states to overtake Obama in the delegate count.

Ummm...what?  There are more than 9 states remaining, and Clinton doesn't have to get 65% of the delegates in the remaining states to catch up in pledged delegates.  I'd have to recalculate things, but the number has still got to be under 60%.

[TheGlobalizer]

.أوباما

[Хahar 🤔]

.أوباما

Is that Awbámá or Ubámá?

I can read Arabic to some extent, but not that well.

[TheGlobalizer]

I would transliterate as Ubaamaa or Ubahmah.  The As in his name are transliterated into alefs in Arabic, so long As instead of short.  (FYI: The preceding hamza-alef is a glottal stop and implies the U rather than the W.)

Also FYI: That was a text copy from aljazeera.net.

I'm taking a class in Arabic now.  Cool language.  Easier than I expected.

/digression

[Хahar 🤔]

I would transliterate as Ubaamaa or Ubahmah.  The As in his name are transliterated into alefs in Arabic, so long As instead of short.  (FYI: The preceding hamza-alef is a glottal stop and implies the U rather than the W.)

Also FYI: That was a text copy from aljazeera.net.

I'm taking a class in Arabic now.  Cool language.  Easier than I expected.

/digression

I used the acute accent as a long vowel, since I was too lazy to get real macrons. And the hamza-alef, IIRC, can mean several different things. If we look at Koranic Arabic (with vowels, the only kind I can read well), hamza-alef-fatha is glottal stop-a.

Arabic is hard to read with a font that small.

[TheGlobalizer]

I used the acute accent as a long vowel, since I was too lazy to get real macrons. And the hamza-alef, IIRC, can mean several different things. If we look at Koranic Arabic (with vowels, the only kind I can read well), hamza-alef-fatha is glottal stop-a.

Arabic is hard to read with a font that small.

Haha, yeah, I had to squint a bit.  I guess it's easier for a native reader.

Hamza-alef is tricky.  Some weird AI / II sounds with the hamza below.  Just learning that now.  In truth, though, the vowels really don't matter that much, unless they're long.

[TheGlobalizer]

Back to the topic: Obama wins TX, Hillary drops out.

[Хahar 🤔]

I used the acute accent as a long vowel, since I was too lazy to get real macrons. And the hamza-alef, IIRC, can mean several different things. If we look at Koranic Arabic (with vowels, the only kind I can read well), hamza-alef-fatha is glottal stop-a.

Arabic is hard to read with a font that small.

Haha, yeah, I had to squint a bit.  I guess it's easier for a native reader.

Hamza-alef is tricky.  Some weird AI / II sounds with the hamza below.  Just learning that now.  In truth, though, the vowels really don't matter that much, unless they're long.

Yesterday, I was wondering: does modern Arabic distinguish between three vowel lengths? The Qur'an does, and that's one of the few things I have trouble with.

[Keystone Phil]

Obama is obviously favored but I don't know if he'll win it. Imagine the spin (that people will actually buy, too) if Hillary wins the remaining big three regardless of the margin? She can find a way to do this with the delegates, people. Never forget who we are dealing with.

[© tweed]

haha.  Gore > Hillary.

[7,052,770]

I predict Obama, although I still don't count Hillary out.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Obama (normal)

[TheGlobalizer]

Yesterday, I was wondering: does modern Arabic distinguish between three vowel lengths? The Qur'an does, and that's one of the few things I have trouble with.

My understanding is that there are only two vowel lengths (long and short), with the long being the dual function letters U(OO)/W and I(EE)/Y, and the alef AA.  The short vowels are a, i, u, and are not written (except when using diacritic marks).  Informally/verbally, the vowels matter less than the consonants, and are sometimes disregarded a bit.

For example, "he wrote" is kataba.  "She wrote" is katabat; "I wrote" is katabtu; "you wrote" (fem) is katabti; "you wrote" (masc) is katabta.  The last four are all written the same (ktbt), and sometimes the final vowel drops off in speech.

The way I'm putting it together in my head is that short vowels don't matter, but it's generally a good idea to use the 'i' when speaking to a female.  :-)  (katabti rather than katabt)

[Boris]

Clinton, obviously.