Wisconsin & Hawaii Democratic Results Discussion

[Alcon]

For the benefit of those of us who failed maths at school*, what would that be expected to translate as in terms of overall numbers?

*almost

Not enough information there to say, but everything I'm seeing indicates a percentage margin of 15%+.

How big have gender gaps usually been this year?

Depends.  The potential for larger variance is probably greater in a state with the racial make-up of Wisconsin (for obvious reasons)

[Torie]

Obama winning by 20% or close to it, if such ensues, will probably be a fatal blow for Clinton. This is her charge up Cemetery Hill. This is the Florida of the GOP primary. The Dem nomination from here on out won't be much more interesting than the GOP one.

[Eraserhead]

It looks like the exit polls for MO also had Obama up very narrowly (by just 1 point) among women:

http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2008/exitPoll.shtml?state=MO&race=P&jurisdiction=0&party=D

and he only won the state by the narrowest of margins.  But I think the exit polls for MO were just plain wrong, as they appear to give a 5 point lead in the "under $50,000" category and a 14 point lead in the "over $50,000" category....which clearly doesn't square with the closeness of the final result.

Wasn't there supposedly no gender gap according to the MO exit polls? I would say that is fairly hard to believe.

[Verily]

For the benefit of those of us who failed maths at school*, what would that be expected to translate as in terms of overall numbers?

*almost

Not enough information there to say, but everything I'm seeing indicates a percentage margin of 15%+.

How big have gender gaps usually been this year?

Varies widely. Some states (Missouri) had no gender gap at all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For the benefit of those of us who failed maths at school*, what would that be expected to translate as in terms of overall numbers?

*almost

Not enough information there to say, but everything I'm seeing indicates a percentage margin of 15%+.

How big have gender gaps usually been this year?

Depends.  The potential for larger variance is probably greater in a state with the racial make-up of Wisconsin (for obvious reasons)

Has it been as large as 30pts anywhere? (that figure is probably proof that I fail at maths isn't it? Anyway, I guessed that if Obama were to lead Women by 2pt and overall by 15, he'd need to lead Men by about 30? Is that right? Not a rhetorical question or anything, I really do suck at this sort of thing)

[Ben.]

Obama winning by 20% or close to it, if such ensues, will probably be a fatal blow for Clinton. This is her charge up Cemetery Hill. This is the Florida of the GOP primary. The Dem nomination from here on out won't be much more interesting than the GOP one.

Cemetry Hill?... nah, more like little round top... making Texas and Ohio cemetry ridge/pickets charge... then again you could say this was cemetry hill and TX and OH were little round top with PA winding up as cemetry ridge... but perhaps I'm taking this analogy too far?

[Mr. Morden]

For the benefit of those of us who failed maths at school*, what would that be expected to translate as in terms of overall numbers?

*almost

Not enough information there to say, but everything I'm seeing indicates a percentage margin of 15%+.

How big have gender gaps usually been this year?

Doing some more digging, it looks like MO was an oddball with a nearly nonexistent gender gap in the exit polls.  For most other states (outside the South), it looks like the gender gap has been in the neighborhood of 20 points.  Thas is Clinton-Obama shows a 20 point swing between men and women.

[Mr. Morden]

Oh, looks like CT had a 29 point gender gap.  Not sure if that was the highest.

[Torie]

Well, whatever the analogy, Clinton as a fighting force after losing Wisconsin by more than 15% will have been hollowed out, and the only remaining issue to resolve is her capacity for self abuse and embarrassment.   Of course, if Obama really IS a gay crack head, I guess she can be reanimated.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How long til the polls close?

[Eraserhead]

So does anyone think they will call the race as soon as the polls close?

[Alcon]

How long til the polls close?

Two hours

[Mr. Morden]

Has it been as large as 30pts anywhere? (that figure is probably proof that I fail at maths isn't it? Anyway, I guessed that if Obama were to lead Women by 2pt and overall by 15, he'd need to lead Men by about 30? Is that right? Not a rhetorical question or anything, I really do suck at this sort of thing)

It depends on the number of men vs. the number of women voting in the Democratic primary.  If it's 50/50, then women by 2 and overall by 15 means men by 28.  (The overall number being exactly in the middle.)  If it's 40% men and 60% women in the Dem. primary, then women by 2 and overall by 15 means men by 34-35 points, which would be a super large gender gap (higher than anywhere else that we've seen?).

[Alcon]

...which means chances are we have a major disagreement between exit polls here.

[Verily]

So does anyone think they will call the race as soon as the polls close?

I doubt it. We'd need an enormous gender gap to get a 20-point margin in the exit polls. And twenty points has seemed to be the cutoff so far this season. FOX has been more lenient, though; they might call it at close.

[Flying Dog]

I don't want them to call it at first. It's more exciting if they let it hang in the balance for a while.

[Eraserhead]

Are CNN and Fox going to cover Hawaii live? It looks like MSNBC isn't going to.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...which means chances are we have a major disagreement between exit polls here.

Not my thing. I think I should sleep now, look at results later, rather than stay up and wait.

[exopolitician]

Are CNN and Fox going to cover Hawaii live? It looks like MSNBC isn't going to.

Hawaii Caucuses dont close till midnight tonight...so information wont start pouring out of the islands to early early Wedensday morning.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...which means chances are we have a major disagreement between exit polls here.

Not my thing. I think I should sleep now, look at results later, rather than stay up and wait.

Oh, and it's another thing to be (maybe) expected of Wisconsin. Hope the results are interesting. Have fun everyone.

[Person Man]

exit polls?

[Alcon]

exit polls?

Two different strains here, one vaguely showing Obama up somewhere around 10, others showing him up over 15.

[Verily]

exit polls?

All over this thread. Actual numbers for the votes won't be released until 9 PM Eastern (7 PM Mountain, when polls close).

[Keystone Phil]

Chris Matthews just reminded us about three times just before the commercial break that we won't know who is actually winning until the results come in. Thanks, Chris!

[WalterMitty]

Chris Matthews just reminded us about three times just before the commercial break that we won't know who is actually winning until the results come in. Thanks, Chris!

he will be as giddy as a little school girl, along with his pal keith olbermann if obama wins.