Hawaii Poll, for what its worth

[Wiz in Wis]

not a big sample size, but still shows a clear Obama lead

http://www.touchtonepoll.com/

CD1:

BHO 58
HRC 26
UND 16

CD2
BHO 55
HRC 23
UND 22

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who exactly are TouchTonePoll.com?

[Verily]

The only people daring enough to poll Hawaii, apparently. And if you put the two polls (of the two CDs) together, the MoE isn't dreadfully small (5%).

[Eleden]

Who exactly are TouchTonePoll.com?

I can easily tell it's better than ARG.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The only people daring enough to poll Hawaii, apparently. And if you put the two polls (of the two CDs) together, the MoE isn't dreadfully small (5%).

True. And the numbers look "right".

But...

...the name "TouchTonePolling.com"... um...

[Wiz in Wis]

Okay... so way cool. These are streaming LIVE RESULTS. as respondents answer, the totals are updated... WOW

[Mr. Morden]

Here's their "polling archive":

http://ttpoll.com/archive.atm

[Verily]

The only people daring enough to poll Hawaii, apparently. And if you put the two polls (of the two CDs) together, the MoE isn't dreadfully small (5%).

True. And the numbers look "right".

But...

...the name "TouchTonePolling.com"... um...

SUSA uses touch tones, too. But, yeah, the name is bad.

They did okay in California for the Democrats, though they totally fubbed the Republicans (probably because of their 55-person sample size). And, since it's all robo-calls, they don't press undecideds. They did well in Nevada, too, though again fubbing the Republicans. (That time everyone else screwed up and underestimated Romney, too; they did have Paul's support high.)

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Those "undecideds" probably are people who are just not going to vote, especially considering it's a caucus. That's most likely the explanation for double digits undecided the day before the vote, for many it probably just means "will not attend caucus'.

[WalterMitty]

sample size of 164.

toss.

[Verily]

sample size of 164.

toss.

Sample size is 375 (and counting), if you bothered to read the page.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

And responses are still coming in. They polled over 700 for Nevada.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Does anyone else find it kind of odd Obama does better in District 2? Not necessarily impossible, just odd.

[Verily]

Does anyone else find it kind of odd Obama does better in District 2? Not necessarily impossible, just odd.

A bit. I'm guessing that HI-02 is the more Asian and Native district, although it could be the other way around. It may be different because Chelsea Clinton has been campaigning in HI-01, or maybe because being a Hawaii native is less important to residents of the more cosmopolitan Honolulu than to residents of outer Oahu and the other islands.

[Verily]

Current overall numbers are:

Obama: 57%
Clinton: 25%
Undecided: 18%

n=503, MoE=4.4%

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Does anyone else find it kind of odd Obama does better in District 2? Not necessarily impossible, just odd.

A bit. I'm guessing that HI-02 is the more Asian and Native district, although it could be the other way around. It may be different because Chelsea Clinton has been campaigning in HI-01, or maybe because being a Hawaii native is less important to residents of the more cosmopolitan Honolulu than to residents of outer Oahu and the other islands.

Well the numbers are roughly equal now, though not in the Wednesday poll.

[Eraserhead]

No clue if this poll is worth anything but I do expect results similar to what they are showing.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Final numbers give Obama around 59% but thanks to the undecideds it's actually quite over that. I'm sure anyone undecided now just won't vote considering it's a caucus anyway.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Throwing out undecideds, it's a 72-28 victory for Obama. Judging by the actual results, I think we'll be hearing from these guys again.