Poll: Who will win Democratic Primary in Wisconsin, and by how much?

[Torie]

Wisconsin may when looking back prove to be "the" critical primary for the Democrat nomination race. That may be why Hillary is suddenly paying attention to it. If she does win it, I think the odds of her winning the nomination go over 50%. If she loses it by more than 5%, her odds of winning the nomination go below 20%, and if she loses by more than 10%, her odds drop to around 10%.

Advantages for Hillary:  Wisconsin is 90% white, and only 6% black in the Dem primary, and 50% of the electorate makes less than $50,000 per year

Advantages for Obama:  The primary will be flooded with independents and many Republicans (maybe  45% of the electorate).

The exit poll for the 2004 Dem primary showing the demographics is available for viewing here.

[Sam Spade]

I really have no clue.  The polling here will be a mess, as always, because those damn swing Wisconsin Catholics are so prone to lying to pollsters.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I voted Obama by 5%-10%. 

[Tender Branson]

Wisconsin Primary:

Obama: 52%
Clinton: 47%

Hawaii Caucus:

Obama: 60%
Clinton: 39%

[Angel of Death]

Wisconsin Primary:

Obama: 52%
Clinton: 47%

Hawaii Caucus:

Obama: 60%
Clinton: 39%

Wisconsin seems about right, but I won't be surprised if Obama has an even higher blowout in Hawaii. This whole "Asians all vote for Clinton"-meme is ridiculous, given that the demographic is not particularly a narrow description, to say the least.

[Alcon]

This whole "Asians all vote for Clinton"-meme is ridiculous, given that the demographic is not particularly a narrow description, to say the least.

California has a diverse Asian population, yet it voted heavily for Clinton.  It's very possible.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

With not a single poll of or campaign visit to Hawaii, I don't put much reliance on the conventional wisdom.  While the CW suggests that Hawaii going 60-40 for Obama sounds right any result from 80-20 Obama to 70-30 Clinton would not be a complete surprise.

[Angel of Death]

With not a single poll of or campaign visit to Hawaii,

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/14/aloha-chelsea-to-campaign-in-hawaii/

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

With not a single poll of or campaign visit to Hawaii,

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/14/aloha-chelsea-to-campaign-in-hawaii/

I thought her mom was running for President.  Besides isn't Chelsea under 35 still?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not a clue. But I'm looking forward to it anyway; voting patterns in Wisconsin are usually interesting.

[angus]

I voted Obama by 5%-10%. 

me too.  but mostly I just wanted to see the results without hard thinking and that seemed like a safe bet.

[© tweed]

Obama by 10+

crossovers and same-day reg. bump him up to a victory by the margin of, say, Delaware.

[TomC]

Clinton by 5.

[Boris]

Clinton by 2.72%

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Obama by 10+

crossovers and same-day reg. bump him up to a victory by the margin of, say, Delaware.

^^^^

[TheresNoMoney]

Obama by 12%.

[Eraserhead]

Obama by 10% or more.

[Mr.Phips]

Obama by a 53%-45% margin.  McCain basically wrapping this up helps Obama big time. 

[Flying Dog]

Wisconsin:

Obama 57%
Clinton 42%

Hawaii

Obama 62%
Clinton: 37%

Hawaii loves its native borns.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Obama by just over 10. He'll get a little more than 55%.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Advantages for Obama:  The primary will be flooded with independents and many Republicans (maybe  45% of the electorate).

If he performs at the level he did in Virginia among those voters (around 70%) and they make up 45% of the electorate, he needs only a third of Democrats to win this. Obviously he would. Blow out. Of course there's no guarantee they'll make up that much of the electorate, but Hillary probably needs at least 60% of the Democratic vote to win. How likely is that considering how many Democrats are black or Madison liberals?