True or False Set 1

[bullmoose88]

Evaluate each independently unless instructed otherwise

1. If Obama is the nominee, the Bradley Effect could cost him the election (sorry)
2. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in november mainly because the hard right sits out to spite him/wait for better chances in 2012.
3. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in November mainly because of his war stance
4. If Obama is the nominee, does the Clinton faction sit out/go half hearted to allow Hillary to play savior in 2012.
5a. If your answer to 4 is true, does it cost Obama the election
5b. If your answer to 4 is false, does it cause the hard right to get behind McCain because of the strength of Obama's campaign and the reprocussions (ie SCOTUS picks, healthcare etc)
6. If Clinton is the nominee,  the hard right, generally, comes back to support mccain in an anyone but clinton fashion
7. McCain Defeats Clinton
8. McCain Defeats Obama
9. Huckabee will be McCain's VP
10. Rendell will be Obama's VP
11. Edwards will be Clinton's VP
12. Edwards will be Obama's VP
13. A Southerner will be McCain's VP
14. Romney will be McCain's VP
15. If Obama is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign
16. If Clinton is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign
17. Obama will do better in Vermont than he will in Massachusetts
18. McCain will do better in Pennsylvania than in Ohio
19. McCain will win New Hampshire
20. Clinton will win Florida

Perhaps another round depending on how this goes and how the campaign goes...

[Meeker]

1. If Obama is the nominee, the Bradley Effect could cost him the nomination What?
2. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in november mainly because the hard right sits out to spite him/wait for better chances in 2012. False
3. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in November mainly because of his war stance False
4. If Obama is the nominee, does the Clinton faction sit out/go half hearted to allow Hillary to play savior in 2012. False, but your phrased it wrong
5a. If your answer to 4 is true, does it cost Obama the election
5b. If your answer to 4 is false, does it cause the hard right to get behind McCain because of the strength of Obama's campaign and the reprocussions (ie SCOTUS picks, healthcare etc) False, but again phrased wrong
6. If Clinton is the nominee,  the hard right, generally, comes back to support mccain in an anyone but clinton fashion Somewhat true
7. McCain Defeats Clinton False
8. McCain Defeats Obama False
9. Huckabee will be McCain's VP Most likely false
10. Rendell will be Obama's VP False
11. Edwards will be Clinton's VP False
12. Edwards will be Obama's VP False
13. A Southerner will be McCain's VP Likely true
14. Romney will be McCain's VP False
15. If Obama is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign False
16. If Clinton is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign Most likely false
17. Obama will do better in Vermont than he will in Massachusetts False
18. McCain will do better in Pennsylvania than in Ohio False
19. McCain will win New Hampshire False
20. Clinton will win Florida True

[bullmoose88]

one is election, not nomination...its been corrected.

[elcorazon]

Evaluate each independently unless instructed otherwise

1. If Obama is the nominee, the Bradley Effect could cost him the election (sorry)
FALSE
2. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in november mainly because the hard right sits out to spite him/wait for better chances in 2012.
FALSE
3. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in November mainly because of his war stance
PARTLY TRUE
4. If Obama is the nominee, does the Clinton faction sit out/go half hearted to allow Hillary to play savior in 2012.
FALSE
5a. If your answer to 4 is true, does it cost Obama the election
5b. If your answer to 4 is false, does it cause the hard right to get behind McCain because of the strength of Obama's campaign and the reprocussions (ie SCOTUS picks, healthcare etc)
TRUE
6. If Clinton is the nominee,  the hard right, generally, comes back to support mccain in an anyone but clinton fashion
TRUE
7. McCain Defeats Clinton
TRUE

8. McCain Defeats Obama
FALSE
9. Huckabee will be McCain's VP
FALSE
10. Rendell will be Obama's VP
FALSE
11. Edwards will be Clinton's VP
FALSE
12. Edwards will be Obama's VP
FALSE
13. A Southerner will be McCain's VP
DUNNO
14. Romney will be McCain's VP
FALSE
15. If Obama is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign
FALSE
16. If Clinton is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign
FALSE
17. Obama will do better in Vermont than he will in Massachusetts
TRUE
18. McCain will do better in Pennsylvania than in Ohio
FALSE
19. McCain will win New Hampshire
FALSE
20. Clinton will win Florida
FALSE

Perhaps another round depending on how this goes and how the campaign goes...

[Sam Spade]

1. If Obama is the nominee, the Bradley Effect could cost him the election - Always a possibility, bucko.
2. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in november mainly because the hard right sits out to spite him/wait for better chances in 2012 - Probably not, if he loses it will be for other reasons.
3. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in November mainly because of his war stance - Could be, but the war is really declining as an issue, fast!
4. If Obama is the nominee, does the Clinton faction sit out/go half hearted to allow Hillary to play savior in 2012 - Is the sky blue?
5a. If your answer to 4 is true, does it cost Obama the election - Dunno - it could happen if they try to purposely destroy his campaign (and don't think this isn't unrealistic)
5b. If your answer to 4 is false, does it cause the hard right to get behind McCain because of the strength of Obama's campaign and the reprocussions (ie SCOTUS picks, healthcare etc) - N/A
6. If Clinton is the nominee,  the hard right, generally, comes back to support mccain in an anyone but clinton fashion - Is the sky blue?
7. McCain Defeats Clinton - Less than 50% chance.
8. McCain Defeats Obama - See #7.
9. Huckabee will be McCain's VP - I doubt it - less than 20% chance
10. Rendell will be Obama's VP - hahaha
11. Edwards will be Clinton's VP - Not unrealistic - put it at about 20% chance
12. Edwards will be Obama's VP - Highly unlikely.
13. A Southerner will be McCain's VP - I think a Midwesterner is more likely, but it's certainly possible
14. Romney will be McCain's VP - See Huckabee, except lower the odds a bit.
15. If Obama is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign - No.
16. If Clinton is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign - No.
17. Obama will do better in Vermont than he will in Massachusetts - Yes. 
18. McCain will do better in Pennsylvania than in Ohio - Against Obama, it's quite possible.  Against Clinton, no way.
19. McCain will win New Hampshire - I place the odds at about 50-50.
20. Clinton will win Florida - I place the odds at about 50-50, the problem with the Clintons is the Cuban vote always.

How well did I do?

[Sam Spade]

Yes, I know I didn't answer in true/false fashion, but I don't really care. 

[bullmoose88]

I tend to agree, that at the moment the war is declining as an issue.  I agree McCain's the underdog. And I had to throw in the random Rendell one.

50 bonus points for the rampant sarcasm...law school have you down too?

[Sam Spade]

I tend to agree, that at the moment the war is declining as an issue.  I agree McCain's the underdog. And I had to throw in the random Rendell one.

50 bonus points for the rampant sarcasm...law school have you down too?

Nah, I'm actually in quite a good mood.  Also, what did I say that was sarcastic?

[Wakie]

1. If Obama is the nominee, the Bradley Effect could cost him the election (sorry)
True, but highly unlikely
2. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in november mainly because the hard right sits out to spite him/wait for better chances in 2012.
True
3. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in November mainly because of his war stance
False
4. If Obama is the nominee, does the Clinton faction sit out/go half hearted to allow Hillary to play savior in 2012.
False
5a. If your answer to 4 is true, does it cost Obama the election
N/A
5b. If your answer to 4 is false, does it cause the hard right to get behind McCain because of the strength of Obama's campaign and the reprocussions (ie SCOTUS picks, healthcare etc)
False
6. If Clinton is the nominee,  the hard right, generally, comes back to support mccain in an anyone but clinton fashion
False
7. McCain Defeats Clinton
False
8. McCain Defeats Obama
False
9. Huckabee will be McCain's VP
False
10. Rendell will be Obama's VP
False
11. Edwards will be Clinton's VP
False - I don't see Clinton getting the nom now
12. Edwards will be Obama's VP
False
13. A Southerner will be McCain's VP
True
14. Romney will be McCain's VP
False
15. If Obama is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign
False
16. If Clinton is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign
False
17. Obama will do better in Vermont than he will in Massachusetts
False
18. McCain will do better in Pennsylvania than in Ohio
False
19. McCain will win New Hampshire
False
20. Clinton will win Florida
False

[bullmoose88]

I tend to agree, that at the moment the war is declining as an issue.  I agree McCain's the underdog. And I had to throw in the random Rendell one.

50 bonus points for the rampant sarcasm...law school have you down too?

Nah, I'm actually in quite a good mood.  Also, what did I say that was sarcastic?

Sky blue...of course, text makes it difficult to tell true attitude behind the words.

[Sam Spade]

I tend to agree, that at the moment the war is declining as an issue.  I agree McCain's the underdog. And I had to throw in the random Rendell one.

50 bonus points for the rampant sarcasm...law school have you down too?

Nah, I'm actually in quite a good mood.  Also, what did I say that was sarcastic?

Sky blue...of course, text makes it difficult to tell true attitude behind the words.

Oh, I see.  I thought I was being obvious there, sorry... 

[bullmoose88]

I tend to agree, that at the moment the war is declining as an issue.  I agree McCain's the underdog. And I had to throw in the random Rendell one.

50 bonus points for the rampant sarcasm...law school have you down too?

Nah, I'm actually in quite a good mood.  Also, what did I say that was sarcastic?

Sky blue...of course, text makes it difficult to tell true attitude behind the words.

Oh, I see.  I thought I was being obvious there, sorry... 

No need for an apology...I generally like sarcasm.

[Franzl]

Evaluate each independently unless instructed otherwise

1. If Obama is the nominee, the Bradley Effect could cost him the election (sorry) FALSE
2. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in november mainly because the hard right sits out to spite him/wait for better chances in 2012.FALSE
3. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in November mainly because of his war stanceTRUE
4. If Obama is the nominee, does the Clinton faction sit out/go half hearted to allow Hillary to play savior in 2012. FALSE
5a. If your answer to 4 is true, does it cost Obama the election
5b. If your answer to 4 is false, does it cause the hard right to get behind McCain because of the strength of Obama's campaign and the reprocussions (ie SCOTUS picks, healthcare etc) maybe
6. If Clinton is the nominee,  the hard right, generally, comes back to support mccain in an anyone but clinton fashion TRUE
7. McCain Defeats Clinton FALSE
8. McCain Defeats Obama FALSE
9. Huckabee will be McCain's VP FALSE
10. Rendell will be Obama's VP FALSE
11. Edwards will be Clinton's VP FALSE
12. Edwards will be Obama's VP FALSE
13. A Southerner will be McCain's VP maybe
14. Romney will be McCain's VP FALSE
15. If Obama is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign FALSE
16. If Clinton is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign FALSE
17. Obama will do better in Vermont than he will in Massachusetts FALSE
18. McCain will do better in Pennsylvania than in Ohio TRUE
19. McCain will win New Hampshire FALSE
20. Clinton will win Florida FALSE

Perhaps another round depending on how this goes and how the campaign goes...

[Platypus]

1. If Obama is the nominee, the Bradley Effect could cost him the election (sorry)

The Bradley effect is about polling. If you mean that he could, potentially, lose the election due to racism, then yes it is possible.

2. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in november mainly because the hard right sits out to spite him/wait for better chances in 2012.

False. There may be slight evidence of this, but not enough to be significant.

3. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in November mainly because of his war stance

False, although it ill be much more of a factor than the above.

4. If Obama is the nominee, does the Clinton faction sit out/go half hearted to allow Hillary to play savior in 2012.

False, by a huge margin. Hillary's most devoted supporters will almost certainly still vote for Obama.

5a. If your answer to 4 is true, does it cost Obama the election
5b. If your answer to 4 is false, does it cause the hard right to get behind McCain because of the strength of Obama's campaign and the reprocussions (ie SCOTUS picks, healthcare etc)

Que? They'd be doing it anyway.

6. If Clinton is the nominee,  the hard right, generally, comes back to support mccain in an anyone but clinton fashion

True. Most would be supporting McCain anyway, but Clinton is just an extra motivator-and a powerful one.

7. McCain Defeats Clinton

True

8. McCain Defeats Obama

False, but possible.

9. Huckabee will be McCain's VP

False.

10. Rendell will be Obama's VP

False..
11. Edwards will be Clinton's VP

False...

12. Edwards will be Obama's VP

False, unless he needs the delegates but it is still unlikely.

13. A Southerner will be McCain's VP

True

14. Romney will be McCain's VP

False

15. If Obama is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign

False

16. If Clinton is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign

False

17. Obama will do better in Vermont than he will in Massachusetts

True, and probably by a large margin.

18. McCain will do better in Pennsylvania than in Ohio

False.

19. McCain will win New Hampshire

Maybe. Vs Clinton, yes; vs. Obama, I don't know.

20. Clinton will win Florida

False, unless it is a wipeout.

[Stranger in a strange land]

1. If Obama is the nominee, the Bradley Effect could cost him the election (sorry) -Partly true: the Bradley effect will harm Obama, but not enough to be decisive.
2. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in november mainly because the hard right sits out to spite him/wait for better chances in 2012. -true if Obama is the dem nominee, false if it's hillary
3. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in November mainly because of his war stance - true
4. If Obama is the nominee, does the Clinton faction sit out/go half hearted to allow Hillary to play savior in 2012. - true
5a. If your answer to 4 is true, does it cost Obama the election - no
5b. If your answer to 4 is false, does it cause the hard right to get behind McCain because of the strength of Obama's campaign and the reprocussions (ie SCOTUS picks, healthcare etc) - maybe, but probably not: they don't hate Obama as viscerally as they hate Hillary
6. If Clinton is the nominee,  the hard right, generally, comes back to support mccain in an anyone but clinton fashion - absolutely true
7. McCain Defeats Clinton - True
8. McCain Defeats Obama - Probably False
9. Huckabee will be McCain's VP - Probably False
10. Rendell will be Obama's VP - False lol
11. Edwards will be Clinton's VP - Probably False
12. Edwards will be Obama's VP - False
13. A Southerner will be McCain's VP - Probably True
14. Romney will be McCain's VP - False
15. If Obama is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign - False
16. If Clinton is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign - More likely, but probably false
17. Obama will do better in Vermont than he will in Massachusetts - True
18. McCain will do better in Pennsylvania than in Ohio - True
19. McCain will win New Hampshire - False: his stance on the war will cost him. He'll still outpoll John Sununu though
20. Clinton will win Florida - No idea

[Јas]

1. If Obama is the nominee, the Bradley Effect could cost him the election (sorry)
If I understand this correctly... true.

2. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in november mainly because the hard right sits out to spite him/wait for better chances in 2012.
I don't grant the premise that he "will" lose... but if he does I doubt this is the reason. If Clinton is the nominee, then you can take this as a much more definitive false.

3. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in November mainly because of his war stance
Don't know. There's still another 9/10 months before the election and that's a long time for stuff to happen (or not happen) in Iraq that could affect public opinion.

4. If Obama is the nominee, does the Clinton faction sit out/go half hearted to allow Hillary to play savior in 2012.
Define 'the Clinton faction'. In the end, the Clinton voters from the primaries will fall behind Obama if necessary - I think that makes my answer - false.

5b. If your answer to 4 is false, does it cause the hard right to get behind McCain because of the strength of Obama's campaign and the reprocussions (ie SCOTUS picks, healthcare etc)
No. It's not the cause.

6. If Clinton is the nominee,  the hard right, generally, comes back to support mccain in an anyone but clinton fashion
True

7. McCain Defeats Clinton
Depends on too many variables to give a proper answer. At the moment though, I'd tentatively say false.

8. McCain Defeats Obama
See above.

9. Huckabee will be McCain's VP
False

10. Rendell will be Obama's VP
False

11. Edwards will be Clinton's VP
False

12. Edwards will be Obama's VP
False

13. A Southerner will be McCain's VP
Very Possibly

14. Romney will be McCain's VP
False

15. If Obama is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign
False

16. If Clinton is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign
False

17. Obama will do better in Vermont than he will in Massachusetts
False

18. McCain will do better in Pennsylvania than in Ohio
False

19. McCain will win New Hampshire
False

20. Clinton will win Florida
True

[Sam Spade]

4. If Obama is the nominee, does the Clinton faction sit out/go half hearted to allow Hillary to play savior in 2012.
Define 'the Clinton faction'. In the end, the Clinton voters from the primaries will fall behind Obama if necessary - I think that makes my answer - false.

I was assuming in my answer that this meant the "Clinton faction" within the powers that be of the Democratic party (i.e. the heavy hitters), not the actual voters.  Most of the Clinton support would get behind Obama, with question marks being sections of the Hispanics and the white working class.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

1. If Obama is the nominee, the Bradley Effect could cost him the nomination Flase
2. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in november mainly because the hard right sits out to spite him/wait for better chances in 2012. True
3. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in November mainly because of his war stance False
4. If Obama is the nominee, does the Clinton faction sit out/go half hearted to allow Hillary to play savior in 2012. False
5a. If your answer to 4 is true, does it cost Obama the election
5b. If your answer to 4 is false, does it cause the hard right to get behind McCain because of the strength of Obama's campaign and the reprocussions (ie SCOTUS picks, healthcare etc) False
6. If Clinton is the nominee,  the hard right, generally, comes back to support mccain in an anyone but clinton fashion True
7. McCain Defeats Clinton False
8. McCain Defeats Obama False
9. Huckabee will be McCain's VP False
10. Rendell will be Obama's VP False
11. Edwards will be Clinton's VP False
12. Edwards will be Obama's VP False
13. A Southerner will be McCain's VP True
14. Romney will be McCain's VP False
15. If Obama is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign False
16. If Clinton is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign False
17. Obama will do better in Vermont than he will in Massachusetts False
18. McCain will do better in Pennsylvania than in Ohio False
19. McCain will win New Hampshire False
20. Clinton will win Florida False

[TomC]

1. If Obama is the nominee, the Bradley Effect could cost him the election (sorry) Yes, possible
2. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in november mainly because the hard right sits out to spite him/wait for better chances in 2012. Yes- but don't forget 2010 congressional elections, too
3. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in November mainly because of his war stance I wouldn't say mainly, but it hurts
4. If Obama is the nominee, does the Clinton faction sit out/go half hearted to allow Hillary to play savior in 2012. No
5a. If your answer to 4 is true, does it cost Obama the election No
5b. If your answer to 4 is false, does it cause the hard right to get behind McCain because of the strength of Obama's campaign and the reprocussions (ie SCOTUS picks, healthcare etc) No
6. If Clinton is the nominee,  the hard right, generally, comes back to support mccain in an anyone but clinton fashion Yes
7. McCain Defeats Clinton No
8. McCain Defeats Obama No
9. Huckabee will be McCain's VP No
10. Rendell will be Obama's VP LOL, no
11. Edwards will be Clinton's VP No
12. Edwards will be Obama's VP No
13. A Southerner will be McCain's VP Possibly
14. Romney will be McCain's VP No
15. If Obama is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign No
16. If Clinton is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign No
17. Obama will do better in Vermont than he will in Massachusetts Yes
18. McCain will do better in Pennsylvania than in Ohio No, unless Ridge is the VP nom
19. McCain will win New Hampshire No
20. Clinton will win Florida No

[Gustaf]

Evaluate each independently unless instructed otherwise

TRUE 1. If Obama is the nominee, the Bradley Effect could cost him the election (sorry)
FALSE 2. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in november mainly because the hard right sits out to spite him/wait for better chances in 2012.
FALSE 3. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in November mainly because of his war stance
FALSE 4. If Obama is the nominee, does the Clinton faction sit out/go half hearted to allow Hillary to play savior in 2012.
FALSE 5b. If your answer to 4 is false, does it cause the hard right to get behind McCain because of the strength of Obama's campaign and the reprocussions (ie SCOTUS picks, healthcare etc)
TRUE 6. If Clinton is the nominee,  the hard right, generally, comes back to support mccain in an anyone but clinton fashion
TRUE 7. McCain Defeats Clinton
FALSE 8. McCain Defeats Obama

The rest later!


FALSE 9. Huckabee will be McCain's VP
FALSE 10. Rendell will be Obama's VP
FALSE 11. Edwards will be Clinton's VP
FALSE 12. Edwards will be Obama's VP
TRUE 13. A Southerner will be McCain's VP
FALSE 14. Romney will be McCain's VP
FALSE 15. If Obama is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign
FALSE 16. If Clinton is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign
TRUE 17. Obama will do better in Vermont than he will in Massachusetts
TOSSUP 18. McCain will do better in Pennsylvania than in Ohio
FALSE 19. McCain will win New Hampshire
FALSE 20. Clinton will win Florida

[© tweed]

1. If Obama is the nominee, the Bradley Effect could cost him the election (sorry)   it can't 'cost' him the election.  although it could overstate his support in certain places.
2. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in november mainly because the hard right sits out to spite him/wait for better chances in 2012.   that wouldn't help, but I don't think 'mainly' is the right way to go
3. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in November mainly because of his war stance   no.  won't matter as much as you'd think
4. If Obama is the nominee, does the Clinton faction sit out/go half hearted to allow Hillary to play savior in 2012.   no.  not as many Hillaryites hate Obama as do Obamaites hate Hillary.  and Hill isn't viable in 2012.  Obama potentially is
5a. If your answer to 4 is true, does it cost Obama the election   no
5b. If your answer to 4 is false, does it cause the hard right to get behind McCain because of the strength of Obama's campaign and the reprocussions (ie SCOTUS picks, healthcare etc)     they'll all get in line anyway, for the most part
6. If Clinton is the nominee,  the hard right, generally, comes back to support mccain in an anyone but clinton fashion  certainly
7. McCain Defeats Clinton   definitely.  nearly certain.  the circumstances that would make Hillary the nominee would be so underhanded and bloody that the Dem base would be irrevocably split and she'd lose in the GE, badly, due to low Dem turnout
8. McCain Defeats Obama  not likely.  20-25%
9. Huckabee will be McCain's VP  very small, almost zero
10. Rendell will be Obama's VP   obligatory "lol"
11. Edwards will be Clinton's VP   unlikely, but non-zero
12. Edwards will be Obama's VP   no
13. A Southerner will be McCain's VP   possibly, though most likely, Pawlenty
14. Romney will be McCain's VP   never.  they hate each other and Romney is voting Democratic this cycle
15. If Obama is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign   no
16. If Clinton is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign   no
17. Obama will do better in Vermont than he will in Massachusetts   probably
18. McCain will do better in Pennsylvania than in Ohio   probably not
19. McCain will win New Hampshire   unlikely
20. Clinton will win Florida    no

[Jake]

1. If Obama is the nominee, the Bradley Effect could cost him the election (sorry)
True

2. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in november mainly because the hard right sits out to spite him/wait for better chances in 2012.
Eh, probably false.

3. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in November mainly because of his war stance
This is possible, but not terribly likely.

4. If Obama is the nominee, does the Clinton faction sit out/go half hearted to allow Hillary to play savior in 2012.
No, but the other way around, yes.

5b. If your answer to 4 is false, does it cause the hard right to get behind McCain because of the strength of Obama's campaign and the reprocussions (ie SCOTUS picks, healthcare etc)
I don't think it matters either way.

6. If Clinton is the nominee,  the hard right, generally, comes back to support mccain in an anyone but clinton fashion
Obviously

7. McCain Defeats Clinton
More likely than not

8. McCain Defeats Obama
I doubt it.

9. Huckabee will be McCain's VP
Don't know really. It's possible.

10. Rendell will be Obama's VP
No chance.

11. Edwards will be Clinton's VP
No.

12. Edwards will be Obama's VP
Possible still.

13. A Southerner will be McCain's VP
Yeah.

14. Romney will be McCain's VP
Not a chance.

15. If Obama is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign
Not a chance.

16. If Clinton is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign
Very unlikely.

17. Obama will do better in Vermont than he will in Massachusetts
No.

18. McCain will do better in Pennsylvania than in Ohio
No.

19. McCain will win New Hampshire
Not likely.

20. Clinton will win Florida
No.

[Boris]

1. If Obama is the nominee, the Bradley Effect could cost him the election (sorry) Possibly
2. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in november mainly because the hard right sits out to spite him/wait for better chances in 2012. False, they'll all jump on board
3. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in November mainly because of his war stance false, will prove to be less of an issue than the economy
4. If Obama is the nominee, does the Clinton faction sit out/go half hearted to allow Hillary to play savior in 2012.false, they'll jump aboard
5a. If your answer to 4 is true, does it cost Obama the election
5b. If your answer to 4 is false, does it cause the hard right to get behind McCain because of the strength of Obama's campaign and the reprocussions (ie SCOTUS picks, healthcare etc)  yes, they'll jump on board. GOP religious-right turnout probably won't exceed 2004 levels though
6. If Clinton is the nominee,  the hard right, generally, comes back to support mccain in an anyone but clinton fashion true
7. McCain Defeats Clinton true
8. McCain Defeats Obama unlikely, unless Obama screws up
9. Huckabee will be McCain's VP false
10. Rendell will be Obama's VP what
11. Edwards will be Clinton's VP false
12. Edwards will be Obama's VP false
13. A Southerner will be McCain's VP [/b]50-50?[/b]
14. Romney will be McCain's VP Ha, Romney is definitely rooting for the Democrats
15. If Obama is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign no
16. If Clinton is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign no
17. Obama will do better in Vermont than he will in Massachusetts True
18. McCain will do better in Pennsylvania than in Ohio False
19. McCain will win New Hampshire False
20. Clinton will win Florida False. Obama won't win it either

[Math]

1. If Obama is the nominee, the Bradley Effect could cost him the election False
2. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in november mainly because the hard right sits out to spite him/wait for better chances in 2012. False
3. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in November mainly because of his war stance True
4. If Obama is the nominee, does the Clinton faction sit out/go half hearted to allow Hillary to play savior in 2012. False
5a. If your answer to 4 is true, does it cost Obama the election
5b. If your answer to 4 is false, does it cause the hard right to get behind McCain because of the strength of Obama's campaign and the reprocussions (ie SCOTUS picks, healthcare etc) False
6. If Clinton is the nominee,  the hard right, generally, comes back to support mccain in an anyone but clinton fashion True
7. McCain Defeats Clinton False
8. McCain Defeats Obama True
9. Huckabee will be McCain's VP False
10. Rendell will be Obama's VP False
11. Edwards will be Clinton's VP False
12. Edwards will be Obama's VP  False
13. A Southerner will be McCain's VP True
14. Romney will be McCain's VP True
15. If Obama is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign False
16. If Clinton is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign False
17. Obama will do better in Vermont than he will in Massachusetts False
18. McCain will do better in Pennsylvania than in Ohio False
19. McCain will win New Hampshire False
20. Clinton will win Florida True

[MarkWarner08]

1. If Obama is the nominee, the Bradley Effect could cost him the election (sorry) True.  A lower turnout from downtrodden Democrats or a high McCain crossover among that group could cost Obama Ohio, West Virginia, and Missouri.
2. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in November mainly because the hard right sits out to spite him/wait for better chances in 2012. Unlikely. Unless Dobson runs as the  Intolerant Party nominee, expect most evangelicals to back McCain.
3. If McCain holds on to be the nominee, he will lose in November mainly because of his war stance. Possibly. Although his poor grasp of economic issues is a greater problem for his chances.
4. If Obama is the nominee, does the Clinton faction sit out/go half hearted to allow Hillary to play savior in 2012. Of course, but it doesn't matter. Clinton is probably a net negative for Obama in the GE, anyway.
5a. If your answer to 4 is true, does it cost Obama the election. No.
5b. If your answer to 4 is false, does it cause the hard right to get behind McCain because of the strength of Obama's campaign and the reprocussions (ie SCOTUS picks, healthcare etc)
6. If Clinton is the nominee,  the hard right, generally, comes back to support mccain in an anyone but clinton fashion
7. McCain Defeats Clinton. Likely. In a choice between two initially pro-war candidates with similar views on most issues, the less radioactive candidate wins.
8. McCain Defeats Obama. Possible. Whoever wins the economy issue will win the election.
9. Huckabee will be McCain's VP. Very unlikely. See David Keene, a leading conservative, on Huckabee.
10. Rendell will be Obama's VP. Nice one!
11. Edwards will be Clinton's VP No. Edwards isn't running for second fiddle for a second time.
12. Edwards will be Obama's VP No.
13. A Southerner will be McCain's VP. Sanford, is that you? DeMint's also a possibility.
14. Romney will be McCain's VP. No.
15. If Obama is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign. No. Bloomberg would only have run if the two nominees with Clinton and Giuliani.
16. If Clinton is the nominee, Bloomberg mounts a 3rd party campaign No.
17. Obama will do better in Vermont than he will in Massachusetts. Yes. The secular leftists in VT will favor Obama.
18. McCain will do better in Pennsylvania than in Ohio. Possible. It depends on who the Democrats nominate.
19. McCain will win New Hampshire. Very strong chance...
20. Clinton will win Florida. Hihg Cuban turnout and depressed AA turnout = likely Clinton loss.