Hillary's comeback

[agcatter]

Seems lke her strategy is win a close one in Wisconsin

Slaughter Obama in Texas & Ohio on March 4th along with solid win in RI

this will create big mo as the comeback gal

I'd say there is a 50 50 chance she pulls it off.  She's advertising heavily in Wisconsin now and barnstorming the state Saturday thru Tuesday.  Only down 4 in Rasmussen.

Her advertising in Texas is massive.  Ads are nonstop and she's hit Texas for three straight days already El Paso, Corpus, San Antonio.....

Win Ohio by huge margin.  Appears to be well on the way there, up 17 Survey USA, 21 Quinnipiac, 14 Rasmussen.....not good demographics in that state for Obama.

Barack better not get compacent.  Hillary is pulling out all the stops.  A Clinton with back to the wall is a dangerous animal.

[Sam Spade]

I still can't figure out the Obama campaign's comment that "she can't catch up" and "expecting her to drop out soon".  Seemed quite a bit premature to me.

Still, do not trust any Wisconsin polling...

I suspect she's in Texas more because 1) it's closer than Ohio; 2) the delegate allocation is not the greatest for her.

[agcatter]

I agree with Sam that Texas is closer.  I think Obama can get 45% here.

The 2004 primary breakdown in the Dem primary was as follows:
21% black
25% Hispanic
50+  White.

I say he gets 85% of the blacks, 35%, of Hispanics, and 40% of whites (thanks to Republican and independent crossovers),

That all treanslates to Obama getting around 45% of the vote.  Not bad.

He needs Wisconsin to keep the mo before he gets into Hillary territory Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  Of course, he knows that and will work to keep the margins down as much as possible.  But this "she can't catch us" stuff is crap.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I still can't figure out the Obama campaign's comment that "she can't catch up" and "expecting her to drop out soon".  Seemed quite a bit premature to me.

It's either spin or hubris. For the sake of the mental health of all the Obamaniacs here, I hope it's spin.

[exopolitician]

I still can't figure out the Obama campaign's comment that "she can't catch up" and "expecting her to drop out soon".  Seemed quite a bit premature to me.

It's either spin or hubris. For the sake of the mental health of all the Obamaniacs here, I hope it's spin.

I agree that the Obama camp is kinda jumping the gun by touting they have the most delegates and how its not possible for her to catchup. Im still pessimistic about it all, it looks close in Wisconsin [though we've been told not to follow those polls] and Ohio and Pennsylvania look ugly. I'll remain on edge for the rest of the month and going into March propably. I hope he can do it though.

[agcatter]

Ohio and Pennsylvania do indeed look ugly.  Obama's projections showed him losing both by 5 or 6 points.  That is waaaaaay optimistic.  They look to be double digit blowouts to me.

[Sam Spade]

I agree with Sam that Texas is closer.  I think Obama can get 45% here.

The 2004 primary breakdown in the Dem primary was as follows:
21% black
25% Hispanic
50+  White.

I say he gets 85% of the blacks, 35%, of Hispanics, and 40% of whites (thanks to Republican and independent crossovers),

That all treanslates to Obama getting around 45% of the vote.  Not bad.

He needs Wisconsin to keep the mo before he gets into Hillary territory Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  Of course, he knows that and will work to keep the margins down as much as possible.  But this "she can't catch us" stuff is crap.

I'll be willing to place another forum bet that Hispanic turnout is higher than 25% and black turnout will be lower than 21%.  Any takers?

[exopolitician]

Ohio and Pennsylvania do indeed look ugly.  Obama's projections showed him losing both by 5 or 6 points.  That is waaaaaay optimistic.  They look to be double digit blowouts to me.

Well if both Primaries were held today yes of course but theres still a few weeks of campaigning to be done. It seems hard but it could happen I guess. Obama has growing ground support in his campaign in Ohio and Texas, though he has yet to set foot inside Pennsylvania.

[agcatter]

Clintonites are predicting 40 - 45% Hispanic turnout in Texas.  Anything like that and Texaas becomes an Obama disaster.  However, with the Republican race settled I see enough white indies and Republicans streaming into the primary to keep the Hispanic % well below that.  Hispanic turnout is historically not great in Texas.

[bullmoose88]

Ohio and Pennsylvania do indeed look ugly.  Obama's projections showed him losing both by 5 or 6 points.  That is waaaaaay optimistic.  They look to be double digit blowouts to me.

Well if both Primaries were held today yes of course but theres still a few weeks of campaigning to be done. It seems hard but it could happen I guess. Obama has growing ground support in his campaign in Ohio and Texas, though he has yet to set foot inside Pennsylvania.

It would do him well to bombard the philadelphia area especially since McCain would seem to be competitive in the Philly Burbs...initially.

[Sam Spade]

Clintonites are predicting 40 - 45% Hispanic turnout in Texas.  Anything like that and Texaas becomes an Obama disaster.

I don't think it'll be that high, but...

My inside familial source in the Houston barrio has pretty much every lower-income (and I mean lower-income) Hispanic turning out and every one (at least every female one) voting for Hilldawg.

Just anecdotal of course, but this one is a staple of that community. 

If a 40%-45% turnout did occur, where it would really hurt would be in those two high delegate black CDs in Houston and Dallas where the Hispanic sub-population is much higher than most people acknowledge.

[Sam Spade]

Ohio and Pennsylvania do indeed look ugly.  Obama's projections showed him losing both by 5 or 6 points.  That is waaaaaay optimistic.  They look to be double digit blowouts to me.

Well if both Primaries were held today yes of course but theres still a few weeks of campaigning to be done. It seems hard but it could happen I guess. Obama has growing ground support in his campaign in Ohio and Texas, though he has yet to set foot inside Pennsylvania.

It would do him well to bombard the philadelphia area especially since McCain would seem to be competitive in the Philly Burbs...initially.

When is the last day that people can change their registration before the primary in PA?

[Sam Spade]

I still can't figure out the Obama campaign's comment that "she can't catch up" and "expecting her to drop out soon".  Seemed quite a bit premature to me.

It's either spin or hubris. For the sake of the mental health of all the Obamaniacs here, I hope it's spin.

I hope (or maybe they should hope) too.

[Trilobyte]

I agree it will be difficult for Clinton catch up in pledged delegates, but she only needs to stay close enough so that superdelegates can decide the winner.

[ill ind]

  I do not see this as a comeback.  Despite CNN and the other media outlet's reporting, the race has remained a 50/50 static contest from the beginning.  Some states give an advantage to Obama and others to Clinton.  Who is considered the frontrunner depends on which states are voting at that particular time and who has an advantage in them.

  That being said, the longer the race remains static, the greater the chance that it will be resolved at a very very ugly convention in Denver.  The whole Florida/Michigan fiasco and the role of the superdelagates will determine the outcome.  If the race indeed goes that long, it is hard to see where either Clinton or Obama will be able to repair the huge breech int he party's unity.

Ill Ind

[agcatter]

I agree that "comeback" is probably not accurate.  I should say "perceived comeback".

Perception = reality.

[Eraserhead]

She has to win OH, TX and PA big to make a true comeback. I don't see it happening although it's a little early to write her off completely.

[ill ind]

  Even though I'm an Obama supporter, I've really had difficulty with the way the media has handled this race lately

  I'm not paid the big bucks to examine exit polls, but I found the whole "Obama is chipping away" at Clinton's core constituencies schtick a little tough to swallow.  How much of that chipping away occurred due to a high percentage of AA voters in those Md and Va exit polls, and how much was caused by legitimate inroads.  Obamga gaining among women or the working class.  The MD and Va exits are suspect at best due to the weight of African MAerican voters there.  Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania are a totally different ball game.

  The way I see it, HRC will win Ohio and most likely Texas.  However due to Texas' arcane delagate selection system Obama will fight her to a draw on delegates awarded.  Ohio and Rhoe Island should give her a boost, but not enough to pull even with Obama.  This gives the superdelegates more to chew on when making their decision.  Should we go with the guy who has the most pledged delegates, but has shown that he can not carry any traditional Democratic states outside of Illinois, or should we go for the person who can carry the traditional Democratic constituencies sans African Amercans who will probably stay home in November should HRC be the nominee.

It will be very close in the end.

Ill Ind
e of Illinois

[emailking]

Should we go with the guy who has the most pledged delegates, but has shown that he can not carry any traditional Democratic states outside of Illinois, or should we go for the person who can carry the traditional Democratic constituencies sans African Amercans who will probably stay home in November should HRC be the nominee.

I don't think we've been "shown" any of that. Simply put, there's no control group. Democrats running against Democrats amongst Dems/Indies is completely different from Democrats running against Republicans amongst everyone.