My prediction at this point
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Author Topic: My prediction at this point  (Read 1402 times)
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Angry_Weasel
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« on: February 14, 2008, 10:38:45 AM »
Obama v. McCain

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J. J.
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« Reply #1 on: February 14, 2008, 10:44:23 AM »
I think, even in the general, PA is a tossup.  My guess is, with Obama, CA might be in play (you heard it here first).
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bgwah
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« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2008, 10:47:23 AM »
Quote from: J. J. on February 14, 2008, 10:44:23 AM
I think, even in the general, PA is a tossup.  My guess is, with Obama, CA might be in play (you heard it here first).

I'm sure Alpine County will put him over the top.
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BenNebbich
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« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2008, 10:48:49 AM »
not bad.

florida is lost for the dems - right.

ohio is lost for the dems - right

but

i can imagine obama taking virginia and missouri

why not change nevada with new mexico?

so far.

BenNebbich
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Erc
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« Reply #4 on: February 14, 2008, 10:52:41 AM »
Normally, I'd say "Home State Bias" to that map.  Though Obama winning CO but not NM might not be that far-fetched (again, Spade or WMS, one of you say something expert-like about the situation).
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5 on: February 14, 2008, 10:57:22 AM »
Quote from: Erc on February 14, 2008, 10:52:41 AM
Normally, I'd say "Home State Bias" to that map.  Though Obama winning CO but not NM might not be that far-fetched (again, Spade or WMS, one of you say something expert-like about the situation).

Wouldn't be terribly surprising.  NM is impossible to predict anyway.  Unlike CO.

As goes OH, so goes PA if Obama's the nominee - or at least that's what I would suspect.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #6 on: February 14, 2008, 10:59:39 AM »
Quote from: BenNebbich on February 14, 2008, 10:48:49 AM
not bad.

ohio is lost for the dems - right

Wrong. Democrats are on a huge upswing in Ohio. We dominated the 2006 elections there, and I expect us to win the state in the 2008 general election.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #7 on: February 14, 2008, 11:05:05 AM »
Dems win Ohio, NM, Va, Missouri... wait, this election is not gore/bush or kerry/bush - it's obama/mccain... this map is gonna look so antiquated come 2009.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #8 on: February 14, 2008, 11:08:33 AM »
Quote from: elcorazon on February 14, 2008, 11:05:05 AM
Dems win Ohio, NM, Va, Missouri... wait, this election is not gore/bush or kerry/bush - it's obama/mccain... this map is gonna look so antiquated come 2009.

Yep, I'm amazed by how many people are stuck in the 2000/2004 mindset. The country and popular opinion has changed a lot over the last 3 years.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: February 14, 2008, 11:29:14 AM »
Quote from: TheresNoMoney on February 14, 2008, 11:08:33 AM
Quote from: elcorazon on February 14, 2008, 11:05:05 AM
Dems win Ohio, NM, Va, Missouri... wait, this election is not gore/bush or kerry/bush - it's obama/mccain... this map is gonna look so antiquated come 2009.

Yep, I'm amazed by how many people are stuck in the 2000/2004 mindset. The country and popular opinion has changed a lot over the last 3 years.

It is way too early to tell whether maps will be different than before or the same as before...
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exopolitician
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« Reply #10 on: February 14, 2008, 11:34:43 AM »
Obama needs to win the nomination first. Once he does secure it safely, then I'll predict who will in the GE. With Hillary still in the race I refuse to make a prediction as to who will the nomination let alone the GE.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #11 on: February 14, 2008, 12:48:19 PM »
This is what I think will happen:
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: February 14, 2008, 12:58:38 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on February 14, 2008, 10:44:23 AM
I think, even in the general, PA is a tossup.  My guess is, with Obama, CA might be in play (you heard it here first).

haha. Good one.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #13 on: February 14, 2008, 12:59:17 PM »
« Edited: February 14, 2008, 01:04:42 PM by TheresNoMoney »
I don't know why people think Obama will lose Pennsylvania. Seems very unlikely to me that he would lose a state Kerry won by 150,000 votes (2%).
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exopolitician
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« Reply #14 on: February 14, 2008, 01:15:53 PM »

North Carolina and Pennsylvania?
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #15 on: February 14, 2008, 01:36:35 PM »

Just a gut feeling.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #16 on: February 14, 2008, 02:04:37 PM »

I understand that there is a 2000/2004 bias, but where is there to go? Can someone give me a reasonable look at what the map could look like?
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #17 on: February 14, 2008, 02:20:08 PM »
Quote from: Angry Weasel on February 14, 2008, 02:04:37 PM

I understand that there is a 2000/2004 bias, but where is there to go? Can someone give me a reasonable look at what the map could look like?

The one I posted could happen and it not to far out there.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #18 on: February 14, 2008, 02:22:09 PM »
Josh is fast becoming the new Harry, wrt NC.

Makes sense, since Harry's obviously gay as well.
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Aizen
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« Reply #19 on: February 14, 2008, 02:25:15 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on February 14, 2008, 02:22:09 PM
Josh is fast becoming the new Harry, wrt NC.

Makes sense, since Harry's obviously gay as well.


Gays don't exist in Mississippi
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #20 on: February 14, 2008, 02:26:19 PM »
Quote from: Aizen on February 14, 2008, 02:25:15 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade on February 14, 2008, 02:22:09 PM
Josh is fast becoming the new Harry, wrt NC.

Makes sense, since Harry's obviously gay as well.
Gays don't exist in Mississippi

Harry says he isn't gay and he lives in Mississippi...  What do you think?
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #21 on: February 14, 2008, 02:31:12 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on February 14, 2008, 02:22:09 PM
Josh is fast becoming the new Harry, wrt NC.

Makes sense, since Harry's obviously gay as well.

Kerry lost NC by 435,317 votes against Bush.  Obama will be a whole lot stronger. Obama will carry all the counties in the Northeastern part of NC by 60% or more. Obama will pick up Buncombe County (which Bush won by 623 votes). Buncombe is home of UNC-Asheville. He will carry Guilford County 5% or more, picking up more votes. He will carry Wake County by alot picking up more votes. He will win Orange and Durham Counties by 70% or more picking up more votes. Obama could win in NC this year.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #22 on: February 14, 2008, 03:54:03 PM »
Quote from: Josh22 on February 14, 2008, 02:31:12 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade on February 14, 2008, 02:22:09 PM
Josh is fast becoming the new Harry, wrt NC.

Makes sense, since Harry's obviously gay as well.

Kerry lost NC by 435,317 votes against Bush.  Obama will be a whole lot stronger. Obama will carry all the counties in the Northeastern part of NC by 60% or more. Obama will pick up Buncombe County (which Bush won by 623 votes). Buncombe is home of UNC-Asheville. He will carry Guilford County 5% or more, picking up more votes. He will carry Wake County by alot picking up more votes. He will win Orange and Durham Counties by 70% or more picking up more votes. Obama could win in NC this year.


Nothing to say Mr. Sam?
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #23 on: February 14, 2008, 04:06:27 PM »
Quote from: Josh22 on February 14, 2008, 03:54:03 PM
Quote from: Josh22 on February 14, 2008, 02:31:12 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade on February 14, 2008, 02:22:09 PM
Josh is fast becoming the new Harry, wrt NC.

Makes sense, since Harry's obviously gay as well.

Kerry lost NC by 435,317 votes against Bush.  Obama will be a whole lot stronger. Obama will carry all the counties in the Northeastern part of NC by 60% or more. Obama will pick up Buncombe County (which Bush won by 623 votes). Buncombe is home of UNC-Asheville. He will carry Guilford County 5% or more, picking up more votes. He will carry Wake County by alot picking up more votes. He will win Orange and Durham Counties by 70% or more picking up more votes. Obama could win in NC this year.


Nothing to say Mr. Sam?

do you know how hard it is to win a county *by 70%*
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Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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« Reply #24 on: February 14, 2008, 04:11:11 PM »
Quote from: © Boss Tweed on February 14, 2008, 04:06:27 PM
Quote from: Josh22 on February 14, 2008, 03:54:03 PM
Quote from: Josh22 on February 14, 2008, 02:31:12 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade on February 14, 2008, 02:22:09 PM
Josh is fast becoming the new Harry, wrt NC.

Makes sense, since Harry's obviously gay as well.

Kerry lost NC by 435,317 votes against Bush.  Obama will be a whole lot stronger. Obama will carry all the counties in the Northeastern part of NC by 60% or more. Obama will pick up Buncombe County (which Bush won by 623 votes). Buncombe is home of UNC-Asheville. He will carry Guilford County 5% or more, picking up more votes. He will carry Wake County by alot picking up more votes. He will win Orange and Durham Counties by 70% or more picking up more votes. Obama could win in NC this year.


Nothing to say Mr. Sam?

do you know how hard it is to win a county *by 70%*

Kerry won them Orange County 66% to 32 and Kerry won Durham county 67 to 31.
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