Rhode Island

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

What are the odds that Obama does well enough to break even in delegates in the first district (3-3), lose by only one delegate in the second (3-4) and do well enough to break even in the statewide allocation (8-8)?

That gives Hillary only a +1 gain in delegates over him, which is easily canceled out by Vermont. It appears Vermont might be allocating their 15 delegates in a particularly stupid way of instead of 15 altogether having one group of 5 and one group of 10, which while dumb would actually favor Obama (if he got just over 55% with one group of 15 delegates he'd receive 8, but under this system would receive 6 from the group of 10 and 3 from the group of 5, resulting in a 9-6 split and +3 instead of plus one.) In that sense Obama could easily have the net win from the small states on March 4th.

[NDN]

I get the feeling he's going to lose there. Given the demographics plus the overall atmosphere here RI seems like Clinton territory.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

I get the feeling he's going to lose there. Given the demographics plus the overall atmosphere here RI seems like Clinton territory.

But as I said, he doesn't need to lose by much.

Actually, he could lose 55-45 and still only be down one delegate as a result. Allocation greatly favors him.

[TomC]

She's certainly going to win something sooner or later.

[NDN]

I get the feeling he's going to lose there. Given the demographics plus the overall atmosphere here RI seems like Clinton territory.

But as I said, he doesn't need to lose by much.

Actually, he could lose 55-45 and still only be down one delegate as a result. Allocation greatly favors him.

True. I'm personally much more concerned about Ohio coming up. And Pennsylvania to a lesser extent.. Mostly because I get the feeling that the race issue is still really big there and want proof that he won't run the risk of losing to McCain.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Actually this shows one of the greatest lacks of proportionality in the system. If Vermont and Rhode Island are basic mirror images of each other, which Obama carrying Vermont by just over double digits and Hillary doing so in Rhode Island, Obama will win more delegates between the two state seven though he won the smaller state and almost certainly would have less votes in the two states combined. Oh well, at least it benefits my candidate and it's better than the GOP system (with their idiotic winner-take-all contests and insane lack of proportionality in states like California.)

[JSojourner]

Looking at the numbers, Hillary's win in Massachusetts wasn't that big a margin.  It was big, in that Obama had Kennedy, Kerry and Patrick in his corner. But it wasn't the blowout that Obama has scored in state after state. Likewise, her New Hampshire win was pretty narrow.  His win in Maine was a blowout.  But then, caucuses are in his favor.

His win in Connecticut was close.

So I am not sure how to read Rhode Island.  Lincoln Chafee and Congressman Kennedy have both endorsed Obama.  Sheldon Whitehouse is, I think, a Clinton man.  I believe Reed is non-committal.

Rhode Island is very liberal, possibly second only to Vermont.  So I would expect Obama to win.  But I expected the same in Massachusetts. 

The thing I would be most worried about if I were Hillary is that Obama's polling numbers among some of her strongest supporters keep rising in primary after primary.  MSNBC said the other night he was even polling stronger among Latinos and white women.  If all Hillary is left with is older, white women -- she's done.    But somehow, I don't see her being "done" just yet.  She's just too tough.

[Platypus]

Rhode Island isn't so much 'liberal' as it is 'Democrat'. Also, as Al constantly reminds us (), look at the areas surrounding RI in MA and CT-they went, rather strongly, for Clinton.

[Jake]

Langevin endorsed Clinton as well. And Rhode Island is not liberal like Vermont is liberal; it's much more blue collar and not as well educated as CT, VT, NH, or MA. In short, not an area where Obama should be favored.

As to the original question, Clinton would need to break 58.5% in the 1st District to secure a 4th delegate. It's almost certain she'll get 4 delegates in the 2nd District because she needs 64.4% to earn a 5th. The 1st District abuts with Bristol County, MA which gave her 68.94%. I think it's likely she breaks 58.5% there. Statewide, she'd have to win with 56% to earn a 5-3 split which with an expected big win in the 1st District is very probable. So, that would give her 13-8 split out of awarded delagates.