Vermont

[Smash255]

Obviously Vermont is going to be strongly in the Democratic column in November.  How strong will it go for Obama against McCain?  Could the state be headed to Utah and Wyoming type margins?  How would an Obama v Huckabee match up wind up in the state?

[Keystone Phil]

How strong will it go for Obama against McCain? 

A little too confident on the General election matchup, aren't we?

[King]

Vermont has gotten exponentially lamer over the years.  I expect Obama to get 70% of the vote regardless.

[bullmoose88]

I think the Democrats win Vermont...that much I think is sure...but I dont think, barring some 3rd party, the margin is as big as everyone thinks and I don't even know if the Democrat cracks 60%...

McCain might be non far right enough to get nominal republicans back on his side.


Edit...60%, not 50%...I'm pretty sure, barring a third party run, the dem wins with at least 50%...duh.

[Smash255]

How strong will it go for Obama against McCain? 

A little too confident on the General election matchup, aren't we?

Well I'm pretty confident Obama will win the nomination, but I was asking the question because while I feel know both would rack up huge margins there Obama would do better than Clinton.

[Smash255]

I think the Democrats win Vermont...that much I think is sure...but I dont think, barring some 3rd party, the margin is as big as everyone thinks and I don't even know if the Democrat cracks 50%...

McCain might be non far right enough to get nominal republicans back on his side.

Its likely going to be the Dems largest victory (outside of D.C)  I would say it has easily bypassed Massachusetts as the most liberal state in the country and it is an extremely anti war state.

[exopolitician]

How strong will it go for Obama against McCain? 

A little too confident on the General election matchup, aren't we?

We are talking about the state who wants to Impeach Bush or leave the union. I think the democrats have this state safely in their column for a long time to come.

[Keystone Phil]

How strong will it go for Obama against McCain? 

A little too confident on the General election matchup, aren't we?

We are talking about the state who wants to Impeach Bush or leave the union. I think the democrats have this state safely in their column for a long time to come.

Uh, re-read my post, please to understand what I'm saying.

You're getting really annoying with this now.

[Aizen]

Against Huckabee, Vermont breaches 70%. Against McCain, probably just above 60%

[exopolitician]

How strong will it go for Obama against McCain? 

A little too confident on the General election matchup, aren't we?

We are talking about the state who wants to Impeach Bush or leave the union. I think the democrats have this state safely in their column for a long time to come.

Uh, re-read my post, please to understand what I'm saying.

You're getting really annoying with this now.

Ah indeed, sorry I should have read it better.

[Lief 🗽]

While John "100 years in Iraq" McCain will do miserably in Vermont, I doubt Obama breaks 70%.

[bullmoose88]

I think the Democrats win Vermont...that much I think is sure...but I dont think, barring some 3rd party, the margin is as big as everyone thinks and I don't even know if the Democrat cracks 50%...

McCain might be non far right enough to get nominal republicans back on his side.

Its likely going to be the Dems largest victory (outside of D.C)  I would say it has easily bypassed Massachusetts as the most liberal state in the country and it is an extremely anti war state.

I disagree

Moderate and non uber conservative Republicans are still fairly competitive in Vermont...i think someone like McCain can beat Bush's 40% there (slightly lower in 2004)...Obviously Vermont has gone away from being a Republican stronghold, but I still think theres a significant amount of strong GOP support there...probably about 30-35%...figure about another 5-10% of GOP leaning independents and disaffected democrats (for whatever reason)...I think McCain's good enough to add about 5% more onto that

so in short I'm thinking he's able to hit about 40-45%...yeah...Vermont's a fairly liberal state now, but I kinda see it like Jersey and Maryland...the democrat will win, but the Republican...as long as he isn't totally $hitty...see GW Bush...theres going to be a floor they're not going to fall under...The dem's margin is going to be impressive, but not the monstrosities you see in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, or for the GOP Utah/Wyoming etc...

Because unlike those states, the GOP (in a somewhat different form) is still fairly competitive with senate victories (yes Jeffords I know) and governorship victories rather than just the veto-emasculated governorship.

I think, barring a mishap, its going to be difficult for a democrat to break 60 and to force McCain under 40%...then again, its also February.

Safe Dem, but not necessarily huge DC/Mass/RI-esque blowout dem

[Aizen]

I think the Democrats win Vermont...that much I think is sure...but I dont think, barring some 3rd party, the margin is as big as everyone thinks and I don't even know if the Democrat cracks 50%...

McCain might be non far right enough to get nominal republicans back on his side.

Its likely going to be the Dems largest victory (outside of D.C)  I would say it has easily bypassed Massachusetts as the most liberal state in the country and it is an extremely anti war state.

I agree completely. Mr. 100 years war is NOT going to play well there. At least, not much better than Bush if at all. Obama would do better than Kerry as well.

[Smash255]

I think the Democrats win Vermont...that much I think is sure...but I dont think, barring some 3rd party, the margin is as big as everyone thinks and I don't even know if the Democrat cracks 50%...

McCain might be non far right enough to get nominal republicans back on his side.

Its likely going to be the Dems largest victory (outside of D.C)  I would say it has easily bypassed Massachusetts as the most liberal state in the country and it is an extremely anti war state.

I disagree

Moderate and non uber conservative Republicans are still fairly competitive in Vermont...i think someone like McCain can beat Bush's 40% there (slightly lower in 2004)...Obviously Vermont has gone away from being a Republican stronghold, but I still think theres a significant amount of strong GOP support there...probably about 30-35%...figure about another 5-10% of GOP leaning independents and disaffected democrats (for whatever reason)...I think McCain's good enough to add about 5% more onto that

so in short I'm thinking he's able to hit about 40-45%...yeah...Vermont's a fairly liberal state now, but I kinda see it like Jersey and Maryland...the democrat will win, but the Republican...as long as he isn't totally $hitty...see GW Bush...theres going to be a floor they're not going to fall under...The dem's margin is going to be impressive, but not the monstrosities you see in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, or for the GOP Utah/Wyoming etc...

Because unlike those states, the GOP (in a somewhat different form) is still fairly competitive with senate victories (yes Jeffords I know) and governorship victories rather than just the veto-emasculated governorship.

I think, barring a mishap, its going to be difficult for a democrat to break 60 and to force McCain under 40%...then again, its also February.

Safe Dem, but not necessarily huge DC/Mass/RI-esque blowout dem

At this point I don't think a floor exists for the GOP inb Vermont.  The state is just too liberal and way to anti war for McCain to even sniff 40%

[Aizen]

I think the Democrats win Vermont...that much I think is sure...but I dont think, barring some 3rd party, the margin is as big as everyone thinks and I don't even know if the Democrat cracks 50%...

McCain might be non far right enough to get nominal republicans back on his side.

Its likely going to be the Dems largest victory (outside of D.C)  I would say it has easily bypassed Massachusetts as the most liberal state in the country and it is an extremely anti war state.

I disagree

Moderate and non uber conservative Republicans are still fairly competitive in Vermont...i think someone like McCain can beat Bush's 40% there (slightly lower in 2004)...Obviously Vermont has gone away from being a Republican stronghold, but I still think theres a significant amount of strong GOP support there...probably about 30-35%...figure about another 5-10% of GOP leaning independents and disaffected democrats (for whatever reason)...I think McCain's good enough to add about 5% more onto that

so in short I'm thinking he's able to hit about 40-45%...yeah...Vermont's a fairly liberal state now, but I kinda see it like Jersey and Maryland...the democrat will win, but the Republican...as long as he isn't totally $hitty...see GW Bush...theres going to be a floor they're not going to fall under...The dem's margin is going to be impressive, but not the monstrosities you see in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, or for the GOP Utah/Wyoming etc...

Because unlike those states, the GOP (in a somewhat different form) is still fairly competitive with senate victories (yes Jeffords I know) and governorship victories rather than just the veto-emasculated governorship.

I think, barring a mishap, its going to be difficult for a democrat to break 60 and to force McCain under 40%...then again, its also February.

Safe Dem, but not necessarily huge DC/Mass/RI-esque blowout dem

45% in Vermont? Come on now....

[bullmoose88]

I think the Democrats win Vermont...that much I think is sure...but I dont think, barring some 3rd party, the margin is as big as everyone thinks and I don't even know if the Democrat cracks 50%...

McCain might be non far right enough to get nominal republicans back on his side.

Its likely going to be the Dems largest victory (outside of D.C)  I would say it has easily bypassed Massachusetts as the most liberal state in the country and it is an extremely anti war state.

I disagree

Moderate and non uber conservative Republicans are still fairly competitive in Vermont...i think someone like McCain can beat Bush's 40% there (slightly lower in 2004)...Obviously Vermont has gone away from being a Republican stronghold, but I still think theres a significant amount of strong GOP support there...probably about 30-35%...figure about another 5-10% of GOP leaning independents and disaffected democrats (for whatever reason)...I think McCain's good enough to add about 5% more onto that

so in short I'm thinking he's able to hit about 40-45%...yeah...Vermont's a fairly liberal state now, but I kinda see it like Jersey and Maryland...the democrat will win, but the Republican...as long as he isn't totally $hitty...see GW Bush...theres going to be a floor they're not going to fall under...The dem's margin is going to be impressive, but not the monstrosities you see in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, or for the GOP Utah/Wyoming etc...

Because unlike those states, the GOP (in a somewhat different form) is still fairly competitive with senate victories (yes Jeffords I know) and governorship victories rather than just the veto-emasculated governorship.

I think, barring a mishap, its going to be difficult for a democrat to break 60 and to force McCain under 40%...then again, its also February.

Safe Dem, but not necessarily huge DC/Mass/RI-esque blowout dem

At this point I don't think a floor exists for the GOP inb Vermont.  The state is just too liberal and way to anti war for McCain to even sniff 40%

Bush hit about 39% there...I understand you guys think the war issue is just going to kill McCain there, but if George W Bush hit 39% there running against a New Englander...McCain, who is far less Bush like on other issues (if in degree, and not in general stance) is still going to be at the 40% mark.

Certainly if the war goes bad near november, yeah all bets are off...but I think you guys are ignoring that a state that was pretty Republican until 1988 doesn't lose its Republican base over night, or even over two decades. I think Bush pretty much won the base, and the base alone four years ago...and I think you can admit, like his war stance or not, McCain's going to do better than shrub there.

[bullmoose88]

45% I think is an absolute maximum. Probably unattainable, but $hit happens.

[bullmoose88]

Interestingly enough Bush 43 won about the same number of votes (121,180 38.80%) his father won in 1988, (124,331 51.10%)...

Do you guys really think McCain can't beat Bush's 2004 performance?

[Sam Spade]

Because I enjoy making bets, I would bet that McCain does better %-wise in RI and MA than VT against Obama.  Any takers?

[bullmoose88]

Because I enjoy making bets, I would bet that McCain does better %-wise in RI and MA than VT against Obama.  Any takers?

What are the stakes Spade?  Since its fairly obvious I think he's going to do better, relative, in Vermont than in RI/MA

[Gabu]

Because I enjoy making bets, I would bet that McCain does better %-wise in RI and MA than VT against Obama.  Any takers?

I'll take a bet that that will happen; I'm not going to bet against it.

[Smash255]

I think the Democrats win Vermont...that much I think is sure...but I dont think, barring some 3rd party, the margin is as big as everyone thinks and I don't even know if the Democrat cracks 50%...

McCain might be non far right enough to get nominal republicans back on his side.

Its likely going to be the Dems largest victory (outside of D.C)  I would say it has easily bypassed Massachusetts as the most liberal state in the country and it is an extremely anti war state.

I disagree

Moderate and non uber conservative Republicans are still fairly competitive in Vermont...i think someone like McCain can beat Bush's 40% there (slightly lower in 2004)...Obviously Vermont has gone away from being a Republican stronghold, but I still think theres a significant amount of strong GOP support there...probably about 30-35%...figure about another 5-10% of GOP leaning independents and disaffected democrats (for whatever reason)...I think McCain's good enough to add about 5% more onto that

so in short I'm thinking he's able to hit about 40-45%...yeah...Vermont's a fairly liberal state now, but I kinda see it like Jersey and Maryland...the democrat will win, but the Republican...as long as he isn't totally $hitty...see GW Bush...theres going to be a floor they're not going to fall under...The dem's margin is going to be impressive, but not the monstrosities you see in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, or for the GOP Utah/Wyoming etc...

Because unlike those states, the GOP (in a somewhat different form) is still fairly competitive with senate victories (yes Jeffords I know) and governorship victories rather than just the veto-emasculated governorship.

I think, barring a mishap, its going to be difficult for a democrat to break 60 and to force McCain under 40%...then again, its also February.

Safe Dem, but not necessarily huge DC/Mass/RI-esque blowout dem

At this point I don't think a floor exists for the GOP inb Vermont.  The state is just too liberal and way to anti war for McCain to even sniff 40%

Bush hit about 39% there...I understand you guys think the war issue is just going to kill McCain there, but if George W Bush hit 39% there running against a New Englander...McCain, who is far less Bush like on other issues (if in degree, and not in general stance) is still going to be at the 40% mark.

Certainly if the war goes bad near november, yeah all bets are off...but I think you guys are ignoring that a state that was pretty Republican until 1988 doesn't lose its Republican base over night, or even over two decades. I think Bush pretty much won the base, and the base alone four years ago...and I think you can admit, like his war stance or not, McCain's going to do better than shrub there.

The state is continuing its hard leftward swing, their is no indication that swing is slowing down let alone evening out.  The anti war feeling in Vermont was strong in 04, its even stronger now.  nationally on the Presidential level 08 is likely going to be better for the Dems than 04 was

[Sam Spade]

What are the terms?

[Smash255]

Because I enjoy making bets, I would bet that McCain does better %-wise in RI and MA than VT against Obama.  Any takers?

I'll take a bet that that will happen; I'm not going to bet against it.

^^^

[Aizen]

I misread it. Sorry =( I really want to make a bet for something though...