Hawaii Democrat Caucus Preview

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

No polling data I'm aware of for the state, so anything I say here is going to be largely based on a distillation of the conventional wisdom.

There are 20 pledged delegates at stake, 7 statewide and in HI-2, 6 in HI-1.  Conventional wisdom says Clinton should do better in HI-2 (rural Oahu and the other islands) than HI-1 (Honolulu)  Obama has a local connection, but Clinton has the local machine.  Delegate wise, I think the best Clinton can probably hope for is a 10-10 split of the pledged delegates by winning HI-2 4-3 and holding Obama to a small enough lead in HI-1 that it splits 3-3 with the state going 4-3 Obama.  The best Obama can probably hope for is a 12-8 delegate lead by winning both CD's and winning HI-1 by a large enough margin for the delegates there to go 4-2.  I doubt Obama can get enough of a victory margin to have the Statewide delegates split 5-2.

Hawaii also has 1 unpledged non-superdelegate, but he or she won't be chosen until the State Party Committee meets at the convention on 25 May.  While officially unpledged, I'd say Clinton has a good chance of picking that delegate up.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Hawaii also has 1 unpledged non-superdelegate, but he or she won't be chosen until the State Party Committee meets at the convention on 25 May.  While officially unpledged, I'd say Clinton has a good chance of picking that delegate up.

Unless Clinton is seen as all but done then.

[Verily]

Clinton doesn't have the machine as far as I'm aware. The only potential machine persona to endorse was Rep. Neil Abercrombie, for Obama.

[Lief 🗽]

I'm a little scared about the Asian vote going strongly for Clinton, as it does usually seem to go for her. I don't know if "home-state" advantage on Obama's part counter-acts that though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ACS data, all figures percentages.

Asian: 39.9
White: 26.3
Two or more races: 21.5
Native Hawaiian: 8.7
Hispanic: 7.8
Black: 2.2

[Verily]

Is "two or more" mostly white-Asian, Native-white, or Asian-Native?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is "two or more" mostly white-Asian, Native-white, or Asian-Native?

I don't know. Lewis probably does.

[Verily]

I'm a little scared about the Asian vote going strongly for Clinton, as it does usually seem to go for her. I don't know if "home-state" advantage on Obama's part counter-acts that though.

I'm wary of this, too. But I suspect Obama will visit the state (hopefully more than just Honolulu, but Hilo as well), while Clinton, having established her fortress in Texas, won't be poking her head out.

[ottermax]

As a person with Hawaii connections (I'll actually be there by coincidence on the 19th), I can say this:

The Asian vote is not as biased as you may think. The CNN exit poll said "Other", not Asian, as the group supporting Clinton. Obama is from Hawaii, and my mom, (an Asian from Hawaii) voted for Obama, mostly because of state pride. Hawaiians are very proud of the people from their state, and it is also a caucus which will help him drastically.

The population is vitually all in Honolulu, very few people live outside the city (most of the 2nd district is the island of Oahu, basically everything outside Honolulu proper). I think Obama will do better in CD 2 because there are a lot of wealthy whites and a lot of eccentrics/hippie types. I'll have to see what people in Hawaii actually think, but I have a strong feeling that Obama will win in a landslide -out of state pride.

Is "two or more" mostly white-Asian, Native-white, or Asian-Native?

The mix includes all of the above. A lot of Asians have married Whites; Hawaii is very integrated and multiracial. Unlike the mainland, most Asians in Hawaii are rather accepting of intermarriage even though they can easily marry within their respective cultures. I know tons of people in Hawaii, and most marriages are mixes of some sort. My grandma is Japanese and married an Ohioan Chinese guy, my grandpa. My uncle is mixed Asian-Caucasian and his sister married another Caucasian while he married my aunt (chinese-japanese). Plus, a lot of the Asians are Japanese who tend to be socially liberal and are likely Obama voters.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

CNN 2004 exit poll:

Whites: Kerry 58 Bush 42
Hispanics: Kerry 54 Bush 46
Asian: Kerry 52 Bush 48
Other: Kerry 48 Bush 52

So whites are actually the most Democratic demographic on Hawaii. Can't say I'm surprised, a lot of those Asians are rather affluent, very socially conservative (Filipinos) and a lot of the "Other" are Mormons (Assuming that's where Native Hawaiians go).

Also 42% of voters were white. I'm going to assume that turnout among many of those Asian demographics must be horrible. What's it going to be in a caucus?

[ottermax]

Turn out in Hawaii is low because nobody cares. They sort of feel separated from D.C. Without the Filipinos, the Asian vote would be overwhelmingly Democratic. Native Hawaiians are rather conservative. Caucasians don't feel as alienated as other groups, and a lot of the Asians are immigrants.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Yes. Based on my extrapolation of that poll, whites made up around 45% of Kerry voters. With numbers like that whites probably would make up an outright majority of Democratic caucusers.

Also noteworthy: Hawaii was one of the very few states where Kerry won the white male vote. Who are the white males supporting in this primary?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'm wary of this, too. But I suspect Obama will visit the state (hopefully more than just Honolulu, but Hilo as well), while Clinton, having established her fortress in Texas, won't be poking her head out.

Right now, neither candidate is planning on going.  I haven't even heard of any plans to send high surrogates.  Sen. Inoyue is planning on heading home for the caucus and will likely do some campaigning for Clinton while he's there.

[Erc]

Any word on who our old buddy Ed Case would be backing?

(Not that he hasn't pissed off the party establishment there entirely)

[M]

Off-Topic, what's up with the Hawaii GOP caucuses?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Off-Topic, what's up with the Hawaii GOP caucuses?

Those have been already held to select delegates for the regional caucuses in April to mid-May and the state convention in mid-May , but they didn't formally choose delegates based on who they supported for President and they won't at the state convention either.  The delegates can choose to give a pledge which they would then be required to honor unless their candidate withdraws, but other than that there is no formal binding of delegates to any candidate.

In short, the Hawaii GOP still uses smoke-filled rooms.