Obama campaign manager says it's impossible for Hillary to catch up?

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

Obama campaign manager David Plouke had this say:

"The only way she could do it is by winning most of the rest of the contests by 25 to 30 points," he said. "Even the most creative math really does not get her, ever, back to even in terms of pledged delegates."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Plouffe_She_cant_catch_us.html
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Since I am too lazy to figure out the delegate math, is Mr. Plouke right in this statement, or is this just typical spin?  Perhaps some of the more technical posters on this forum can shed some insight into this.    Is it extremely difficult for Hillary--at this point--to catch up to Obama in pledged delegates? 

[Gustaf]

In pledged delegates, yes. If it's 20 to 30 points I don't know and I honestly really doubt it. That's what they said about Huckabee and he was way more behind. But don't forget Clinton has more unpledged delegates and she may also get the MI and FL delegates re-seated.

[Mr. Morden]

Discussed here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=70448.0

In order to catch up in pledged delegates (without reinstating FL & MI), she needs to win roughly a 56% -  44% split of the remaining pledged delegates.  That means winning the remaining contests by an average victory margin comparable to that of CA, MA, and NJ.  Which seems really really tough, but saying "The only way she could do it is by winning most of the rest of the contests by 25 to 30 points," is something of an exaggeration.

[Stranger in a strange land]

it's not impossible, but it is extremely unlikely.

[Ben.]

Impossible? No.

Improbable? Yes.

However, were the super delegates to swing behind her, were she to win OH and TX by clear margins and go on to win PA in a similar fashion and were the FL and MI delegations to be sat in Denver then she would overhaul Obama in the delegate stakes... it's not impossible, but it's certainly unlikley.

The question is what happens after March 4th if she eeks out slim wins in TX and OH?

[MODU]

All it takes is a shift in the "momentum," and Killary does have more friendlier states coming up, where as Obama has benefitted over the past few weeks.  This is far from over.

[Democratic Hawk]

My advice is to David Plouke is that I wouldn't be so sure

I know it's easy to say this now but, yesterday, I had had a feeling that Obama, in the Potomac primaries, would make significant inroads into Clinton's base - and he did , especially in Virginia though, relative to Clinton, he still faired poorly in the south west rural counties, which should bode well for her in rural Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky and West Virginia

Some might now argue that, on the back of a straight run of victories, Obama is the front-runner but I'll throw caution to the wind. Until such time as Obama, at the very least, is on parity with Clinton among superdelegates, he's by no means the frontrunner not with TX, OH and PA yet to play out

There is a long road ahead to the Democratic nomination ... and Obama isn't there yet, unless Clinton somehow implodes along the way big style

Nevertheless, it's encouraging that Obama appears to be broadening his support among those demographics most favorable for Clinton

Dave

[Sam Spade]

If only it were so easy to eliminate the Clintons...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...and the long and the short of all the above is, yes, yes, this is schpin (Or szpin. schzpin? schpin probably wins). But wasn't that obvious anyway?

[P.J. McDuff]

I can see Hillary crying foul about Michigan and Florida if it's anyway close, that is if her Rudy-esque tactics don't cook her goose before then. As for Superdelegates, they should simply step back and side with the candidate who got the most pledged delegates, it would terribly unfair any other way imo.

[Ben.]

My advice is to David Plouke is that I wouldn't be so sure

I know it's easy to say this now but, yesterday, I had had a feeling that Obama, in the Potomac primaries, would make significant inroads into Clinton's base - and he did , especially in Virginia though, relative to Clinton, he still faired poorly in the south west rural counties, which should bode well for her in rural Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky and West Virginia

Some might now argue that, on the back of a straight run of victories, Obama is the front-runner but I'll throw caution to the wind. Until such time as Obama, at the very least, is on parity with Clinton among superdelegates, he's by no means the frontrunner not with TX, OH and PA yet to play out

There is a long road ahead to the Democratic nomination ... and Obama isn't there yet, unless Clinton somehow implodes along the way big style

Nevertheless, it's encouraging that Obama appears to be broadening his support among those demographics most favorable for Clinton

Dave

Dont hedge Dave... I've staked my limited reputation over on pb.com on either Clinton or Obama having their fate decided on March 4th (probably ).

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

Thanks for all your input.

As far as super-delegates is concerend, something tells me Hillary has already reached her ceiling of support by now.  Its ridiculous to think the remaining superdelegates will go over to Hillary, especially if she loses the pledged delegates and popular vote