WISCONSIN & HAWAII

[exopolitician]

So now that the Potomic Primaries are done, the next contests a week from today are in Wisconsin and Hawaii. It would seem for Clinton to have her "last stand" before March 4th she would campaign hard in Wisconsin, but it looks like shes ignoring  the state and diving straight for Tejas and Ohio. Bill and Chealsea are expected to be in Wisconsin but will that be enough? Does anyone think Hillary has a bigger chance here than she really does? What happens if Obama wins both Wisconsin and Hawaii? Post predictions and discuss here.

[Gabu]

A big problem for Clinton with March 4 is that I believe 2/3 (is it?) of the delegates in Texas are allocated by caucus, and we all know about Obama and caucuses.  Really, what Clinton needs is a massive 60-40 win in Ohio; anything else would put her campaign on the ropes, I think.  Previously I said she also needs to try for a win in Wisconsin, but if reports are accurate she seems to be more or less abandoning all hope there.  I don't really know what she's thinking; I know that the old refrain is "never underestimate a Clinton", but I really can't see at present the merit behind her apparent strategy.

[TheresNoMoney]

I think Obama wins both Wisconsin and Hawaii by double digits (although not as much as he won by tonight).

I wish I could predit beyond that. I have to assume that the numbers in Ohio will start to move towards him over the next three weeks. He needs to campaign his ass off in that state and end this race on March 4th once and for all.  If he wins Ohio or Texas, the race is pretty much over.

[exopolitician]

Does anyone think Hillary will win in Wisconsin?

[Thereisnospoon]

Does anyone think Hillary will win in Wisconsin?

With her strategy appearing to be focused almost totally on March 4th, I doubt it. She'll likely do better there than in Virginia or Maryland, though.

[MasterJedi]

Does anyone think Hillary will win in Wisconsin?

Well it's not like there's anyway for people to actually know. There are no signs anywhere between Whitewater (halfway between Madison and Milwaukee) and Milwaukee for any candidate. So the only signs I have seen are one actual yard sign for Ron Paul, a Ron Paul sticker on my neighbors dorm door and a "McCain" sign on my door. Absolutly no other signs for any candidate on both sides.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Does anyone think Hillary will win in Wisconsin?

Well it's not like there's anyway for people to actually know. There are no signs anywhere between Whitewater (halfway between Madison and Milwaukee) and Milwaukee for any candidate. So the only signs I have seen are one actual yard sign for Ron Paul, a Ron Paul sticker on my neighbors dorm door and a "McCain" sign on my door. Absolutly no other signs for any candidate on both sides.

Because signs are such a scientific method of gauging support

[MasterJedi]

Does anyone think Hillary will win in Wisconsin?

Well it's not like there's anyway for people to actually know. There are no signs anywhere between Whitewater (halfway between Madison and Milwaukee) and Milwaukee for any candidate. So the only signs I have seen are one actual yard sign for Ron Paul, a Ron Paul sticker on my neighbors dorm door and a "McCain" sign on my door. Absolutly no other signs for any candidate on both sides.

Because signs are such a scientific method of gauging support

No, it's just you're not smart enough to get at what I was saying.

[exopolitician]

Does anyone think Hillary will win in Wisconsin?

Well it's not like there's anyway for people to actually know. There are no signs anywhere between Whitewater (halfway between Madison and Milwaukee) and Milwaukee for any candidate. So the only signs I have seen are one actual yard sign for Ron Paul, a Ron Paul sticker on my neighbors dorm door and a "McCain" sign on my door. Absolutly no other signs for any candidate on both sides.

I guess I should have rephrased it better, asking if she has a chance at winning in Wisconsin atleast.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Does anyone think Hillary will win in Wisconsin?

there's a chance, but I doubt it.

Never underestimate a Clinton, but she lost similar states like MO and MN. Plus the more voters see of Obama, the more they like him, and he has some time to campaign before the primary.

[gmo]

Compared to other contests in Feb, WI would seem relatively favorable for Clinton.  A couple weeks ago I figured she would be a slight favorite.

In thinking about the apparent abandonment of WI in favor of OH & TX, maybe the thinking is that the difference in WI will not be that many delegates which ever way.  So better to fight to fend off Obama among Hispanics in Texas and the blue collar whites in Ohio where he might strip away more delegates than by taking WI.

[exopolitician]

Compared to other contests in Feb, WI would seem relatively favorable for Clinton.  A couple weeks ago I figured she would be a slight favorite.

In thinking about the apparent abandonment of WI in favor of OH & TX, maybe the thinking is that the difference in WI will not be that many delegates which ever way.  So better to fight to fend off Obama among Hispanics in Texas and the blue collar whites in Ohio where he might strip away more delegates than by taking WI.

Still, adding on Wisconsin to a win of already 9 states to equal 10 straight losses for Clinton is NOT GOOD...delegates or not. It would only hurt her not benefit one bit.

[jimrtex]

A big problem for Clinton with March 4 is that I believe 2/3 (is it?) of the delegates in Texas are allocated by caucus, and we all know about Obama and caucuses. 

About 1/5 are directly elected by conventions.  

The delegates that are allocated based on the primary vote are elected at senate district conventions, but the distribution is based on the primary, and the presidential candidates get to screen the delegate nominees.  Let's say a senate district is split 3 delegates Clinton, 2 delegates Obama (based on the primary vote).  Anyone may run to be delegate pledged to one of the candidate, but then Clinton gets to pick 9 to be nominees (3x3) and Obama gets 6 to be nominees (2x3).  Presumably, Clinton and Obama will encourage 9 and 6 trusted supporters, respectively, to run for delegate.  So you might have 9 trusted Clinton supporters and 4 other persons who say they want to be a Clinton delegate..  Clinton gets to pick 9 of the 13.  She'll pick her 9.   The Clinton-supporting delegates to the senate convention will then choose 3 national delegates from the 9.   Obama will do the same.

Since a relatively small percentage of delegates will be chosen based on the conventions, they may be more dominated by party regulars.  The precinct conventions are held after the polls close, so participant have to vote, and then return (or go elsewhere) for the precinct convention.   A large share of voting in Texas is early voting in the two weeks before the primary.  This could be from 30% to 50%.  It would be even harder to get these voters to attend the precinct conventions, because the main reason to vote early is convenience.  And since Texas has its regular primaries on March 4, these are not simply presidential preference caucuses.  If you didn't go to the caucus in Nevada or Kansas or Iowa, you didn't "vote".  In Texas, you will have already "voted".

There could be a few caucus hot spots, such as at college campuses.  But the number of delegates to the county conventions is apportioned on the basis of the 2004 and 2006 elections.  So you could have a caucus with 10 people and another with 100 choosing the same number of county delegates.  On the other hand, the results of the 2004 and 2006 elections are heavily weighted towards Black areas.  Both Bush in 2004 and Perry in 2006 did very well among Hispanic voters, while Blacks voted 95%+ for the Democrat (Blacks in Texas are stronger Democratic than the country as a whole).

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I still see Hillary winning in Wisconsin, by a very narrow margin.

[Wiz in Wis]

I have no idea about Hawaii, but I would assume Obama is the big favorite for a number of reasons. (Post Racial, Caucus, State of Birth, etc.)

Wisconsin, on the other hand, is a place I am familiar with (duh). I would predict Obama to win somewhere between 8-12 points, but a bigger margin cannot be counted out. Two words: Madison and Milwaukee. True Milwaukee as a metro area has plenty of blue collar workers who are generally considered Hillary supporters, but my sense is they need to be reassured and motivated to turnout for her. With no visits and little infrastructure, I cannot see that happening to the extent that it could blunt Obama's margins with Milwaukee blacks and UWM/Marquette students (not to mention Alverno, Mt Mary, Carroll, Cardinal Stritch, MATC, etc.). Madison will go for Obama huge... Students, Latte Liberals, a decent number of blacks.. he has Dane county in the bag.  Then there's UWEC, UWLAX, UW Stout, UWGB, UWW, UWP, etc etc etc.... a huge number of colleges and universities in this state, UWEC and UWLAX are 10,000 students each, with 22,000 at UWM and 40,000 at UW-Madison, that is a large margin of easily activated young people.

Plus, this is the state of Feingold, Nelson, Lafollette... Our liberals are quirky...

Oh, and Illinois will flood this state with volunteers and staff

And he has the Gov, Mayors of Madison and Milwaukee, and two reps, dozens of state legislators, the beat goes on

Obama has more radio and TV ads, more offices (Madison has 2, Milwaukee has 3, Stevens Point, EC, LAX, GB, Racine, Kenosha)

I just don't see where Hillary can overtake all of those

[Josh/Devilman88]

Obama wins WI by 10% at most 15%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Primaries in Wisconsin can be strange. Polls also.

[minionofmidas]

Primaries in Wisconsin can be strange. Polls also.

Hilary *could* win there.

If she doesn't at least keep it close though, she should probably give up. And right now I think she won't (well. Closer than Maryland, obviously, but that's not what I meant by close. It basically  needs to be spinnable as a tie.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If she doesn't at least keep it close though, she should probably give up.

Probably. But I'm not sure if either candidate is thinking like that at the moment; I could be wrong but everything seems to have gotten too personal.

[Padfoot]

I'm expecting Obama to win Wisconsin by about 5-10 points.  As for Hawaii I would be slightly surprised if the result isn't an Idaho-like blowout.

[Bacon King]

I think Wisconson is going to be closer than people expect, but I'm probably completely wrong.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Considering that Hillary doesn't appear to even be trying for Wisconsin how can she make it close?

[perdedor]

It's unlikely that Clinton will win either state.

[Gabu]

Considering that Hillary doesn't appear to even be trying for Wisconsin how can she make it close?

She'd have a hope if it was like Pennsylvania where the establishment is firmly behind her, but after seeing Jim Doyle with Obama at his event in Madison yesterday (I didn't know he was supporting him), I'm gonna have to say that yeah, I don't see her making it a squeaker with her just giving up on it.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

And the mayors of Madison and Milwaukee have endorsed Obama. That settles the questions of where the dead/homeless voters will go and the many many votes cast by college students (not that that was ever in doubt).