How bad news for Hillary are the results in southern Maryland?

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

This area should've gone for her following previous patterns. As CNN has pointed out, Obama is making inroads into her base. I would've previously expect an Obama victory to consist of him winning only Howard, Montgomery, Prince George's and Baltimore city and county, but he went beyond that.

[exopolitician]

If he continues to cut into her base then obviously shes hella screwed. Though ive been listening to alot of specialists tonight and they says Hillary would have to win some 55-60% of the delegates in March to regain a lead and possibly win the nomination....or something along those line. In any case, they painted a picture that doesnt look remotely favorable for the Clinton Campaign.

[HappyWarrior]

SoMD is pretty conservative compared to Central Maryland.  We also have alot of farmers and union members.

[Gabu]

Of particular interest in Maryland is that the exit polls actually show the income groups being inverted from what they usually are.  Obama actually did better among those earning less than he did among those earning more.  That's contrary to how it usually goes, where the wealthier voters support Obama while the blue-collar workers support Clinton.  He also did better among those with no college education than among those with one.

[Sam Spade]

This is one place where I think I know the explanations for these things, but I would prefer to let Al handle it. 

Not like Baltimore and Anne Arundel County, where I know exactly what's going on...

[gmo]

Of particular interest in Maryland is that the exit polls actually show the income groups being inverted from what they usually are.  Obama actually did better among those earning less than he did among those earning more.  That's contrary to how it usually goes, where the wealthier voters support Obama while the blue-collar workers support Clinton.  He also did better among those with no college education than among those with one.

This might be explained by Obama winning the black vote like he typically has and that demographic being much less wealthy and educated in this sample.  Groups are not generally clearly distinguished.

It may be beginning to happen, but it is too early to say Obama is poaching away Clinton's base.  Wisconsin may be a good test even though (because?) Clinton may be conceding it.

[Gabu]

This might be explained by Obama winning the black vote like he typically has and that demographic being much less wealthy and educated in this sample.  Groups are not generally clearly distinguished.

It may be beginning to happen, but it is too early to say Obama is poaching away Clinton's base.  Wisconsin may be a good test even though (because?) Clinton may be conceding it.

Yes, I thought about the factor of black people usually being poor and less well educated, but even so hasn't it generally been the case that the results are inverted from those results?

[Smash255]

Of particular interest in Maryland is that the exit polls actually show the income groups being inverted from what they usually are.  Obama actually did better among those earning less than he did among those earning more.  That's contrary to how it usually goes, where the wealthier voters support Obama while the blue-collar workers support Clinton.  He also did better among those with no college education than among those with one.

The working class vote in Maryland might be a larger proportion African American than in other states.  Other than a few parts of the white areas of Baltimore and the rural areas of the state (where their aren't many Democrats) the working class white population is fairly small.  The bulk of the white vote, especially on the Democratic side is concentrated in the Baltimore & D.C suburbs and tend to have higher incomes.   Obama very likely improved on his % of working class whites, but he still probably did better with more affluent whites than he did with working class whites.

[Jake]

Why's that?

Only St. Marys County is a particularly blue collar areas, none have significant Hispanic populations, and Charles County especially has a significant black population (26% in 2000 and growing fast). Income levels in Charles and Calvert Counties, while not up to the levels of Howard or Montgomery Counties, are still around the state average, about as high as Anne Arundel County.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Why's that?

Only St. Marys County is a particularly blue collar areas, none have significant Hispanic populations, and Charles County especially has a significant black population (26% in 2000 and growing fast). Income levels in Charles and Calvert Counties, while not up to the levels of Howard or Montgomery Counties, are still around the state average, about as high as Anne Arundel County.

Obama also won some counties on the Eastern Shore.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

According to Erc's numbers, Obama only needs 44% of the remaining delegates to win the pledged delegates (maybe more like 45% with FL and MI re-voting), and I counted those 12 Edwards delegates against him.

[Gabu]

According to Erc's numbers, Obama only needs 44% of the remaining delegates to win the pledged delegates (maybe more like 45% with FL and MI re-voting), and I counted those 12 Edwards delegates against him.

If Obama does win this thing, I think it lends a lot of credence to Howard Dean's 50-state strategy as opposed to the old "go after swing states and ignore everything else" strategy.

[Jake]

Why's that?

Only St. Marys County is a particularly blue collar areas, none have significant Hispanic populations, and Charles County especially has a significant black population (26% in 2000 and growing fast). Income levels in Charles and Calvert Counties, while not up to the levels of Howard or Montgomery Counties, are still around the state average, about as high as Anne Arundel County.

Obama also won some counties on the Eastern Shore.

Lots of blacks in the southern parts of the Eastern Shore (Somerset - 41%, Wicomico - 23%, Dorchester - 28%).

[minionofmidas]

Yeah. Jake and Smash have it.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Clinton's biggest problem right now is WHO is voting for Obama.  This is the real story of Obama's good mojo.

[Gustaf]

According to Erc's numbers, Obama only needs 44% of the remaining delegates to win the pledged delegates (maybe more like 45% with FL and MI re-voting), and I counted those 12 Edwards delegates against him.

If Obama does win this thing, I think it lends a lot of credence to Howard Dean's 50-state strategy as opposed to the old "go after swing states and ignore everything else" strategy.

For a primary you mean, or what? Because obviously, a primary race with staggered elections and proportional allocation you're not gonna skip states. Or are you extrapolating to the general in some way?