VA turnout WOW

[Smash255]

The dems have had higher turnout all along, the fact that going into tonight the GOP matched seem pretty much over did make me think the Dems would have a strong turnout advantage in VA.  but 2-1??  WOW

[TheresNoMoney]

Virginia is a purple state in my mind. We definitely have a pretty good shot to win there in the general election.

[Alcon]

Please, please, please stop basing General Election turnout on primary numbers.

Please.

[TheresNoMoney]

Please, please, please stop basing General Election turnout on primary numbers.

Please.

You're right Alcon, the fact that turnout in the Democratic primary was more than twice as high as the Republican primary in a traditionally Republican state has NO SIGNIFICANCE.

Thank god we have you to set us straight.

[Erc]

Please, please, please stop basing General Election turnout on primary numbers.

Please.

You're right Alcon, the fact that turnout in the Democratic primary was more than twice as high as the Republican primary has NO SIGNIFICANCE.

Thank god we have you to set us straight.

Excepting NH (where the higher Dem turnout is of historical and political significance), Alcon's completely right.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Please, please, please stop basing General Election turnout on primary numbers.

Please.

You're right Alcon, the fact that turnout in the Democratic primary was more than twice as high as the Republican primary in a traditionally Republican state has NO SIGNIFICANCE.

Thank god we have you to set us straight.

Considering that today's Democratic Primary is one of the most important in modern history that both Hillary and Obama bitterly fought over, and the Republican Primary was a meaningless contest that McCain put no real resources into.

[bullmoose88]

Please, please, please stop basing General Election turnout on primary numbers.

Please.

You're right Alcon, the fact that turnout in the Democratic primary was more than twice as high as the Republican primary has NO SIGNIFICANCE.

Thank god we have you to set us straight.

Excepting NH (where the higher Dem turnout is of historical and political significance), Alcon's completely right.

Yeah, I posted a graph showing that high primary voting really doesn't correlate too well to GE results...where did i put that.

That said impressive, but until shown otherwise by this fall's results...fairly meaningless.

[Smash255]

Please, please, please stop basing General Election turnout on primary numbers.

Please.

I wasn't trying to argue that Primary and General Election turnout is correlated.  However, when the  difference is as big as we have just seen I think that does say something even with the Dem race being more competitive the 2-1 turnout difference is pretty astonishing.

[Alcon]

Please, please, please stop basing General Election turnout on primary numbers.

Please.

You're right Alcon, the fact that turnout in the Democratic primary was more than twice as high as the Republican primary in a traditionally Republican state has NO SIGNIFICANCE.

Thank god we have you to set us straight.

You don't really need me to correct you.  People smarter than me have done it.

The primary turnout as evidence of General turnout is one of the most commonly circulated pieces of pop political analysis there is.  Lots of professional political commentators pass it on too.  A few months back in a journal called Political Behavior they did multiple statistical analyses and they all came to the same conclusion -- it's a myth.  It's a very basic indicator, but one too influenced by other variables to be useful, especially in a Presidential context.

I really shouldn't have to say that.  A two-to-one advantage of Democrats over Republicans in a primary election?  Either the Democratic Party has suddenly shifted to a dominant position in Virginia or there are other factors here.  I doubt you'll disagree that there are.  But I think there are much better ways to analyze those factors than an unlevel primary election.

It's still an impressive turnout, and that may say some things, moreso in an offyear election than a Presidential General.  But when you show me primary turnout, and then you show me polling results, polling results.  Every single day.

Sorry if I was flippant.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Please, please, please stop basing General Election turnout on primary numbers.

Please.

I was trying to argue that Primary and General Election turnout is correlated.  However, when the  difference is as big as we have just seen I think that does say something even with the Dem race being more competitive the 2-1 turnout difference is pretty astonishing.

My incredibly Republican mother was very distraught this primary season because she couldn't vote in the Democratic primary.  She was incredibly moved by the need to stop Hillary at any cost.

And I voted in the Democratic primary, despite being virtually set on McCain in November.

That's some ancedotal evidence, but some good ancedotal evidence.

[Smash255]

Please, please, please stop basing General Election turnout on primary numbers.

Please.

I was trying to argue that Primary and General Election turnout is correlated.  However, when the  difference is as big as we have just seen I think that does say something even with the Dem race being more competitive the 2-1 turnout difference is pretty astonishing.

My incredibly Republican mother was very distraught this primary season because she couldn't vote in the Democratic primary.  She was incredibly moved by the need to stop Hillary at any cost.

And I voted in the Democratic primary, despite being virtually set on McCain in November.

That's some ancedotal evidence, but some good ancedotal evidence.

Edited a typo on my last post.  When the difference is this big I think it does say something.  The changes going on in Virginia (which I think we can all agree is trending Democratic)  might be larger than any of us originally thought.  I'm not saying it is the case, but just something to ponder.

[Jake]

Please, please, please stop basing General Election turnout on primary numbers.

Please.

Especially when the Democrats had an Open Primary and all we've heard from the media for a week was that McCain is the GOP nominee.

[MasterJedi]

So based on this logic Obama will win every state besides Florida and Michigan!

[Gabu]

So based on this logic Obama will win every state besides Florida and Michigan!

Didn't we already know that?

[Sam Spade]

I think it's time to go to bed.  I've seen too many stupid things posted around here tonight.  NTTAWWT. 

[Gabu]

NTTAWWT.

WAYSIDUY.

[Duke 🇺🇸]

I don't think we can base the turnout on general election turnout. The Democratic races now mean much more than the Republican races. Admittedly, the Dems do seem more united right now than the GOP.

In 2000, Bush had a record turnout in the primaries but lost the popular vote to Gore.

I do believe that the Dems definitely are more energized at this point. I won't start worrying until I see McCain getting clobbered in the polls.

[MODU]

The dems have had higher turnout all along, the fact that going into tonight the GOP matched seem pretty much over did make me think the Dems would have a strong turnout advantage in VA.  but 2-1??  WOW

Plus, there were a lot of folks like me that were 'gaming' the democratic race, so that kinda skews the results.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

The dems have had higher turnout all along, the fact that going into tonight the GOP matched seem pretty much over did make me think the Dems would have a strong turnout advantage in VA.  but 2-1??  WOW

Plus, there were a lot of folks like me that were 'gaming' the democratic race, so that kinda skews the results.

Who did you vote for?

[MODU]

The dems have had higher turnout all along, the fact that going into tonight the GOP matched seem pretty much over did make me think the Dems would have a strong turnout advantage in VA.  but 2-1??  WOW

Plus, there were a lot of folks like me that were 'gaming' the democratic race, so that kinda skews the results.

Who did you vote for?

Killary.  I knew Obama was going to score big, so I (and a few guys I know) voted for her in the hopes to balance out the delegate counts.    Want to see these two have to go to a brokered convention.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

The dems have had higher turnout all along, the fact that going into tonight the GOP matched seem pretty much over did make me think the Dems would have a strong turnout advantage in VA.  but 2-1??  WOW

Plus, there were a lot of folks like me that were 'gaming' the democratic race, so that kinda skews the results.

Who did you vote for?

Killary.  I knew Obama was going to score big, so I (and a few guys I know) voted for her in the hopes to balance out the delegate counts.    Want to see these two have to go to a brokered convention.

Trouble maker.

[MODU]

Trouble maker.

I aim to please.    Besides, who was I going to vote for?  Huckabee?  hehehe

[TheresNoMoney]

That MODU sure is "independent"!

[MODU]

That MODU sure is "independent"!

Yeah, I'm a closet liberal at heart.