hillary's strategy has me scratching my head

[Filuwaúrdjan]

there is one silver lining to this bad night, im very impressed with hillary's strength out in southwest va, particularly the coalfields.  looks like she is flirting with 90% in buchanan county and is over 80% in several others.

if it means anything, it shows she is still quite strong with union workers.

This is amusing form Mr. "UNIONS ARE EVIL AND THE GREAT SATAN!"

Clearly he has seen the LIGHT.

[WalterMitty]

there is one silver lining to this bad night, im very impressed with hillary's strength out in southwest va, particularly the coalfields.  looks like she is flirting with 90% in buchanan county and is over 80% in several others.

if it means anything, it shows she is still quite strong with union workers.

This is amusing form Mr. "UNIONS ARE EVIL AND THE GREAT SATAN!"

im just making an observation.

union workers will be quite important in wisconsin, ohio and pennsylvania.

[Keystone Phil]

there is one silver lining to this bad night, im very impressed with hillary's strength out in southwest va, particularly the coalfields.  looks like she is flirting with 90% in buchanan county and is over 80% in several others.

if it means anything, it shows she is still quite strong with union workers.

This is amusing form Mr. "UNIONS ARE EVIL AND THE GREAT SATAN!"

Ok, and you've been slobering over suburbs recently so shut your mouth for once.

[Nutmeg]

If Puerto Rico follows historical patterns and vote like a bloc, Hillary could net up to 60 delegates in PR.

How does it vote monolithically?

[exopolitician]

there is one silver lining to this bad night, im very impressed with hillary's strength out in southwest va, particularly the coalfields.  looks like she is flirting with 90% in buchanan county and is over 80% in several others.

if it means anything, it shows she is still quite strong with union workers.

This is amusing form Mr. "UNIONS ARE EVIL AND THE GREAT SATAN!"

Ok, and you've been slobering over suburbs recently so shut your mouth for once.

Yeah and this coming from the person who said Clinton was definately going to win Virginia tonight. You are irrelevant tonight.

[Keystone Phil]

there is one silver lining to this bad night, im very impressed with hillary's strength out in southwest va, particularly the coalfields.  looks like she is flirting with 90% in buchanan county and is over 80% in several others.

if it means anything, it shows she is still quite strong with union workers.

This is amusing form Mr. "UNIONS ARE EVIL AND THE GREAT SATAN!"

Ok, and you've been slobering over suburbs recently so shut your mouth for once.

Yeah and this coming from the person who said Clinton was definately going to win Virginia tonight. You are irrelevant tonight.

LOL!

Ok, I won't let you go on this one.

1) Where did I say she was definitley going to win? Seems like someone has something against me if he's blatantly lying about what I said.

2) What does that have to do with anything anyway? I made an incorrect prediction so I can't point out that BRTD has been going crazy about suburbs?

[exopolitician]

there is one silver lining to this bad night, im very impressed with hillary's strength out in southwest va, particularly the coalfields.  looks like she is flirting with 90% in buchanan county and is over 80% in several others.

if it means anything, it shows she is still quite strong with union workers.

This is amusing form Mr. "UNIONS ARE EVIL AND THE GREAT SATAN!"

Ok, and you've been slobering over suburbs recently so shut your mouth for once.

Yeah and this coming from the person who said Clinton was definately going to win Virginia tonight. You are irrelevant tonight.

LOL!

Ok, I won't let you go on this one.

1) Where did I say she was definitley going to win? Seems like someone has something against me if he's blatantly lying about what I said.

2) What does that have to do with anything anyway? I made an incorrect prediction so I can't point out that BRTD has been going crazy about suburbs?

In walters other thread:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

ahem...

[Keystone Phil]

In walters other thread:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

ahem...

Ok...so I'm still wondering, where did I say that she'll definitley win? I'm waiting.

By the way, here's what I followed it up with:

Best case? Hillary wins. And it's going to happen.

What is your basis for this?

Whenever Hillary really needs an upset, she gets one. 

Also, Sam brought up a good point elsewhere - VA is a classic example of the Bradley Effect and with polls showing Obama in the mid 50% range, I think it's possible.

And you didn't address how many bad prediction has anything to do with BRTD suddenly appreciating suburbs so knock off the spamming just because you have something against me.

[MarkWarner08]

If Puerto Rico follows historical patterns and vote like a bloc, Hillary could net up to 60 delegates in PR.

How does it vote monolithically?

Barone does a fine job of explaining the reasons for that. In short, it's an area ruled by machine politics. Strong residual support of Bill Clinton + distrust of blacks +machine for Hillary = Strong Clinton win.

[exopolitician]

In walters other thread:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

ahem...

Ok...so I'm still wondering, where did I say that she'll definitley win? I'm waiting.

By the way, here's what I followed it up with:

Best case? Hillary wins. And it's going to happen.

What is your basis for this?

Whenever Hillary really needs an upset, she gets one. 

Also, Sam brought up a good point elsewhere - VA is a classic example of the Bradley Effect and with polls showing Obama in the mid 50% range, I think it's possible.

And you didn't address how many bad prediction has anything to do with BRTD suddenly appreciating suburbs so knock off the spamming just because you have something against me.

When you back it up with "and its GOING to happen" it shows your pretty confident shes going to win Virginia. Dont excuse yourself because you based it off of "oh whenever she needs and upset she gets one...blah blah" when infact Obama did better than polls suggested. The Bradley Effect is dead in this situation.

[MarkWarner08]

4. Puerto Rico. She dominated Obama among Puerto Ricans in NY, NJ, and CA on Super Tuesday. Her husband's intervention on behalf of Puerto Rican nationalists has earned Hillary some good will. Since many Hispanics don't distinguish between Bill and Hillary, the latter will benefit from the former's strong following in this community. If Puerto Rico follows historical patterns and vote like a bloc, Hillary could net up to 60 delegates in PR.

That would be a neat trick, since their 55 pledged delegates are proportional. They have another 8 or so superdelegates.

I meant to say around 50 total.

[TomC]

The insinuation that Hillary hasn't been trying in these states is just silly.

[Keystone Phil]

When you back it up with "and its GOING to happen" it shows your pretty confident shes going to win Virginia. Dont excuse yourself because you based it off of "oh whenever she needs and upset she gets one...blah blah" when infact Obama did better than polls suggested. The Bradley Effect is dead in this situation.

Read for me what I actually said. I said it was a possibility. Saying something will happen is a prediction but not everyone says their prediction will definitley happen.

Oh, and I notice that you aren't addressing your attack on me concerning what I said to BRTD. Glad to see you know you're wrong for bringing something up that's totally unrelated but you should be a big boy and own up to it.

[WalterMitty]

The insinuation that Hillary hasn't been trying in these states is just silly.

not hard enough.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The insinuation that Hillary hasn't been trying in these states is just silly.

not hard enough.

In Washington, she did have a big rally, and repeatedly robocalled Alcon.

[WalterMitty]

The insinuation that Hillary hasn't been trying in these states is just silly.

not hard enough.

In Washington, she did have a big rally, and repeatedly robocalled Alcon.

well, my definition of 'trying' would be having her spending most of the upcoming week in wisconsin.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The insinuation that Hillary hasn't been trying in these states is just silly.

not hard enough.

Assuming that people are still listening.

[WalterMitty]

The insinuation that Hillary hasn't been trying in these states is just silly.

not hard enough.

Assuming that people are still listening.

but you make my point.  if they arent listening now, they sure as hell wont be listening on march 4.  so what is she waiting on?

by the way i do believe they are listening.  one of the metrosexual 'newsmen' cited the exit poll out of the va that showed people who made up their minds in the last 48 hours voted for clinton.  i havent seen said poll, but i take his word for it.

[exopolitician]

The insinuation that Hillary hasn't been trying in these states is just silly.

not hard enough.

Assuming that people are still listening.

but you make my point.  if they arent listening now, they sure as hell wont be listening on march 4.  so what is she waiting on?

by the way i do believe they are listening.  one of the metrosexual 'newsmen' cited the exit poll out of the va that showed people who made up their minds in the last 48 hours voted for clinton.  i havent seen said poll, but i take his word for it.

Random observation...?

[TomC]

The insinuation that Hillary hasn't been trying in these states is just silly.

not hard enough.

Assuming that people are still listening.

but you make my point.  if they arent listening now, they sure as hell wont be listening on march 4.  so what is she waiting on?

by the way i do believe they are listening.  one of the metrosexual 'newsmen' cited the exit poll out of the va that showed people who made up their minds in the last 48 hours voted for clinton.  i havent seen said poll, but i take his word for it.

Random observation...?

Yeah, that's what makes him so loveable despite the gruff exterior.

[Lincoln Republican]

Warning to Clinton, waiting in Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania.

Obama with his message of change and hope and his charisma, is coming for you.

Beware.

Clinton's goin' down.

[Gabu]

Warning to Clinton, waiting in Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania.

Obama with his message of change and hope and his charisma, is coming for you.

Beware.

Clinton's goin' down.

Weren't you one of those predicting up and down that Clinton's attack machine was going to chew Obama up and spit him out before he knew what hit him?

[J. J.]

I posted this on two other threads:

1.  Assuming that the DNC had the authority to set the rule (I have not checked), FL and MI delegates should not be seated under the current rules, procedurally.

2.  It is possible for the DNC to rescind or use the motion amend something previously adopted the rule and then ratify the delegate selection, procedurally.   (See Robert's Rules of Order Newly Revised, 10th edition, 2000, pp. 119, p. 293 ff. It is the one the DNC uses and it is not online.)

3.  The credentials committee can also attempt to resolve this, right before the convention (Robert's Rules of Order Newly Revised, pp. 595-6).

Option #2 has the effect of unleashing a whole bunch of Clinton delegates on the Convention, but it could be done within the rules, unless they actually put that in the bylaws (and I don't think they did).  However, politically, Clinton can say, "Hey, we're letting the voters decided this through there directly elected representatives." She can say this in the case where she has a majority of the delegates, but a minority of the pledged delegates, without FL and MI.

Option #1 has the effect of restraining a whole bunch of Clinton delegates from voting.  Obama can say, "We are playing by the rules as they were adopted."  The problem here is that the rules, as they were adopted, say that those super delegates get to vote on the nomination.  You can't complain about the super delegates without looking like a complete hypocrite, which you really don't want to do if you're running for President.

So basically, for Obama to win this issue, he has to either have enough delegates, including super delegates, to win even if FL and MI are in (#1) or Obama has to have elected delegates, including MI and FL, but excluding the super delegates.

Option #3 depends on the makeup of the credentials committee, and could lead to a floor fight. (Think a Convention similar to 1968.)

There is a fourth option, to hold a primary or caucus in FL and MI.  That is expensive and the state parties can't afford it; so unless the DNC steps in with a couple of checks, it won't happen and the time frame is rapidly running out.

Expect for #4, I don't see how this can do anything but hurt Obama, politically.  He'll either have to face a potential loss at the hands of the super delegates or permit the elected delegates, including MI and FL, to vote, or prepare for a floor fight (which could be reminiscent of 1968).

Nasty, but I see a built in advantage for Clinton.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Memo to Florida and Michigan: Schedule a re-vote or STFU.

[Verily]

Memo to Florida and Michigan: Schedule a re-vote or STFU.

Pretty much. And it wouldn't really affect anything. Obama wins Michigan, Clinton wins Florida, their delegates cancel each other out, everyone yawns.