va: best case scenario for hillary?

[WalterMitty]

what would be the best case scenario for hillary in the va?

holding obama to the mid-50s? 

[Sam Spade]

>10% margin

Obama breaking 60% would not be good for her.  Hope that answers...

[Keystone Phil]

Best case? Hillary wins. And it's going to happen.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Best case? Hillary wins. And it's going to happen.

no, Obama's big mo will continue.  There is no stopping him now.

[perdedor]

Best case? Hillary wins. And it's going to happen.

What is your basis for this?

[Keystone Phil]

Best case? Hillary wins. And it's going to happen.

What is your basis for this?

Whenever Hillary really needs an upset, she gets one. 

Also, Sam brought up a good point elsewhere - VA is a classic example of the Bradley Effect and with polls showing Obama in the mid 50% range, I think it's possible.

[perdedor]

Best case? Hillary wins. And it's going to happen.

What is your basis for this?

Whenever Hillary really needs an upset, she gets one. 

Also, Sam brought up a good point elsewhere - VA is a classic example of the Bradley Effect and with polls showing Obama in the mid 50% range, I think it's possible.

I'll have to disagree, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[Duke 🇺🇸]

if she wins here, it will be a huge blow to obama. The media is sounding like they did before new Hampshire. It is possible.

[WalterMitty]

Best case? Hillary wins. And it's going to happen.

What is your basis for this?

Whenever Hillary really needs an upset, she gets one. 

Also, Sam brought up a good point elsewhere - VA is a classic example of the Bradley Effect and with polls showing Obama in the mid 50% range, I think it's possible.

i dont think va is a good example of the bradley effect.

i remember that 1989 governor's race very well, even though i was a child.  i was living in virginia.  and let's just say my family were big time marshall coleman supporters.

that race was always close.  and i can vividly remember sitting with my grandfather the night before the election and he was basically wringing his hands over the closeness.

the result was close, and wilder needed a recount to be declared the winner.  in fact, im sure somewhere i still have the 'im still partial to marshall' bumpersticker that was made during the recount.

if any race was a surprise in 1989 it was the lt. governor's race.  the daughter of a former governor, eddy dalton was the republican candidate and she had a big lead the whole time.  on election day she lost, to a little known used car salesman, don beyer.

[Eraserhead]

lol @ people thinking Hillary can win VA. Thanks for helping to raise expectations for her.

[Reignman]

Best case for Hillary - Obama win by 5%; spun by Hillary camp.

[Platypus]

Delegate win.

[WalterMitty]

lol @ people thinking Hillary can win VA. Thanks for helping to raise expectations for her.

i dont know if many people think that.   i certainly dont.

but virginia is probably more similar to tennesee than it is georgia.

[Eraserhead]

lol @ people thinking Hillary can win VA. Thanks for helping to raise expectations for her.

i dont know if many people think that.   i certainly dont.

but virginia is probably more similar to tennesee than it is georgia.

I know you don't but Phil and AHDuke99 seem to think she can.

[Sam Spade]

She can't win in VA or even come that close (of course, I said this in NH, but the demos are different).  I raised the Bradley effect for speculation purposes, not b/c I necessarily believe it will occur. 

Some people mistake observation for prediction, but that's ok...

[Duke 🇺🇸]

lol @ people thinking Hillary can win VA. Thanks for helping to raise expectations for her.

i dont know if many people think that.   i certainly dont.

but virginia is probably more similar to tennesee than it is georgia.

I know you don't but Phil and AHDuke99 seem to think she can.

I don't think she can win VA, but I do think the media is talking like they did before New Hampshire. They talk about Clinton going winless this month, talk of campaign in disarray just like there was talk of her dropping out after Iowa.

Will she win VA? Probably not. Is it possible? Very much so. I wouldn't be surprised if she did win, though I don't expect her to.

[Keystone Phil]

Best case? Hillary wins. And it's going to happen.

What is your basis for this?

Whenever Hillary really needs an upset, she gets one. 

Also, Sam brought up a good point elsewhere - VA is a classic example of the Bradley Effect and with polls showing Obama in the mid 50% range, I think it's possible.

i dont think va is a good example of the bradley effect.

i remember that 1989 governor's race very well, even though i was a child.  i was living in virginia.  and let's just say my family were big time marshall coleman supporters.

that race was always close.  and i can vividly remember sitting with my grandfather the night before the election and he was basically wringing his hands over the closeness.

the result was close, and wilder needed a recount to be declared the winner.  in fact, im sure somewhere i still have the 'im still partial to marshall' bumpersticker that was made during the recount.

if any race was a surprise in 1989 it was the lt. governor's race.  the daughter of a former governor, eddy dalton was the republican candidate and she had a big lead the whole time.  on election day she lost, to a little known used car salesman, don beyer.

Apparently, Wilder was up nine points in the polls right before Election day.

lol @ people thinking Hillary can win VA. Thanks for helping to raise expectations for her.

Uh, raising expectations...on a political forum so who cares?

She can't win in VA or even come that close (of course, I said this in NH, but the demos are different).  I raised the Bradley effect for speculation purposes, not b/c I necessarily believe it will occur. 

Some people mistake observation for prediction, but that's ok...

I didn't take it as a prediction.

[WalterMitty]

She can't win in VA or even come that close (of course, I said this in NH, but the demos are different).  I raised the Bradley effect for speculation purposes, not b/c I necessarily believe it will occur. 

Some people mistake observation for prediction, but that's ok...

i love how you like to portray yourself as all-knowing.

please explain to me how she cant win or even come close.

you may be right.  i honestly think it is much more likely that she loses by 20+ points than it is for her to come within 5.

i want to hear your thinking.  i know a little about virginia politics.  of course no one can ever come close to your knowledge.

[Sam Spade]

She can't win in VA or even come that close (of course, I said this in NH, but the demos are different).  I raised the Bradley effect for speculation purposes, not b/c I necessarily believe it will occur. 

Some people mistake observation for prediction, but that's ok...

i love how you like to portray yourself as all-knowing.

please explain to me how she cant win or even come close.

you may be right.  i honestly think it is much more likely that she loses by 20+ points than it is for her to come within 5.

i want to hear your thinking.  i know a little about virginia politics.  of course no one can ever come close to your knowledge.

I am all-knowing, you didn't know that. 

The simple reason is that 1/3rd of the voters will be black and that a certain section of Virginia white Democratic voters are bourgeoisie (as Al might say).  Thus, they'll probably vote more like Georgia than like Alabama (for example).  So, think of Georgia, with 1/3 blacks, instead of 1/2 blacks.

This is a gross simplification, but it's something like this.  If the white % is below GA% (MOE taken into account), the Indys either went over to McCain or we saw more lying in the polling.  Then, we'll probably see something more of like a JJ result.

[Ben.]

Winning.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

< 10% victory for Obama. Her biggest problem is that Virginia is the only southern state where Obama is actually capable of winning the white vote.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Best case? Hillary wins. And it's going to happen.

[Kalimantan]

Best-case for her is avoiding a complete landslide

[Keystone Phil]

Best case? Hillary wins. And it's going to happen.

  Dude, I hate you. I hate the word "dude," too, but I seem to use it a lot with you.

[exopolitician]

Best case for Hillary is to just keep her mouth shut and let the poison of a landslide take its toll without a struggle.