NC for McCain v. Obama

[agcatter]

Obama could win the general but if he does it will be close and NC won't be part of his coalition.  Obamiacs are letting their enthusiasm cloud their view of political reality.

I'd love to think McCain could win New Jersey or Connecticut.  It aint happening though.

[Duke 🇺🇸]

NC in the general election?  Paleeeez.

Bush carried it by 13 pts each of the last two elections.  No contest.  Spend the money in Ohio Dems.  Next we will be talking about McCain carrying New Jersey.  LOL

Bush vs John Kerry... half the people stayed home because they hated both candidates.

And that's why each candidate received a record amount of votes and turnout was the highest since 1964?

They got record amounts of votes because more poeple live in NC then the past.

What? I am talking about as a whole. 64% turnout has nothing to do with numbers, it was percentage that voted. That was the highest since 1964--pretty good for no one liking either candidate.

[perdedor]

That's to say that after 7-8 months of campaigning that conservatives will still be depressed about having John McCain as the Republican nominee. McCain will most likely continue to shift to the right (scary) and will campaign on the premises of "Obama's a liberal!". He'll at least draw an average turnout among conservatives/GOP faithful. This means that, at worst, he'll be pulling in 53% of the North Carolina electorate.

[Padfoot]

South Carolina: 23.8%
Georgia: 43%
Alabama: 23.7%
Tennessee: 26.1%
Oklahoma: 27.9%
Louisiana: 29.4%

The reason I asked for everyone's opinion is that I'm thinking that the NC primary will be more like Georgia's in that Obama may not win the white vote but he'll be doing much better than in the other southern states.  With that in mind plus the fact that NC has had relatively small MOVs for a southern state I though it might be possible for Obama to pull within 5 points of McCain.  I'm far from convinced that Obama could carry any southern states but I think he'll definitely make these states much closer than they have been in recent times.

[Josh/Devilman88]

South Carolina: 23.8%
Georgia: 43%
Alabama: 23.7%
Tennessee: 26.1%
Oklahoma: 27.9%
Louisiana: 29.4%

The reason I asked for everyone's opinion is that I'm thinking that the NC primary will be more like Georgia's in that Obama may not win the white vote but he'll be doing much better than in the other southern states.  With that in mind plus the fact that NC has had relatively small MOVs for a southern state I though it might be possible for Obama to pull within 5 points of McCain.  I'm far from convinced that Obama could carry any southern states but I think he'll definitely make these states much closer than they have been in recent times.

I think NC and VA will vote almost the same way in the primary and GE.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Best for Obama:
Obama 51-48

Best for McCain:
McCain 58-41

Expected Results:
McCain 52-47

[phk]

Good luck, Obama.  You're going to need it.  And probably a good bit more than that.

[Gustaf]

South Carolina: 23.8%
Georgia: 43%
Alabama: 23.7%
Tennessee: 26.1%
Oklahoma: 27.9%
Louisiana: 29.4%

The reason I asked for everyone's opinion is that I'm thinking that the NC primary will be more like Georgia's in that Obama may not win the white vote but he'll be doing much better than in the other southern states.  With that in mind plus the fact that NC has had relatively small MOVs for a southern state I though it might be possible for Obama to pull within 5 points of McCain.  I'm far from convinced that Obama could carry any southern states but I think he'll definitely make these states much closer than they have been in recent times.

I absolutely agree that North Carolina is a place where Obama will do better among whites than he will in, say, Alabama. Still doesn't change the fact that if he's this unpopular among white Democratic primary voters he's gonna have trouble in the general. I really don't see Obama vastly out-performing John Kerry or Al Gore (or Bill Clinton for that matter) in NC. He may get an increased black turnout and he may do well in some parts of the state, but overall I don't really see this is a good state for him.

[Josh/Devilman88]

South Carolina: 23.8%
Georgia: 43%
Alabama: 23.7%
Tennessee: 26.1%
Oklahoma: 27.9%
Louisiana: 29.4%

The reason I asked for everyone's opinion is that I'm thinking that the NC primary will be more like Georgia's in that Obama may not win the white vote but he'll be doing much better than in the other southern states.  With that in mind plus the fact that NC has had relatively small MOVs for a southern state I though it might be possible for Obama to pull within 5 points of McCain.  I'm far from convinced that Obama could carry any southern states but I think he'll definitely make these states much closer than they have been in recent times.

I absolutely agree that North Carolina is a place where Obama will do better among whites than he will in, say, Alabama. Still doesn't change the fact that if he's this unpopular among white Democratic primary voters he's gonna have trouble in the general. I really don't see Obama vastly out-performing John Kerry or Al Gore (or Bill Clinton for that matter) in NC. He may get an increased black turnout and he may do well in some parts of the state, but overall I don't really see this is a good state for him.

You are looking at past election to base your views on. You can't do that. NC isn't the same NC as the past. NC has changed alot in the past years. I'm not saying Obama will win big, but I think the has a shot at winning. For one NC is a big college state with lots of young liberal student. Nice size black population, and a good amount of educated liberal whites.