NC for McCain v. Obama

[Padfoot]

How close do you think North Carolina would be in a McCain-Obama race?  If Conservative turnout is depressed and black turnout is increased do you think North Carolina could have <5% margin?  I don't think Obama could win here unless there was at least a semi-landslide but the combination of northern transplants, increased black participation, and an unmotivated GOP base could perhaps result in a 52-48 McCain victory rather than the double digit margins Bush ran up here in the last two elections.

[Gustaf]

How close do you think North Carolina would be in a McCain-Obama race?  If Conservative turnout is depressed and black turnout is increased do you think North Carolina could have <5% margin?  I don't think Obama could win here unless there was at least a semi-landslide but the combination of northern transplants, increased black participation, and an unmotivated GOP base could perhaps result in a 52-48 McCain victory rather than the double digit margins Bush ran up here in the last two elections.

You forget a factor in this race. It begins with "racist" and it ends with "whites". I don't think Obama will make it close in North Carolina but he may do better there than in the Deep South.

[Josh/Devilman88]

How close do you think North Carolina would be in a McCain-Obama race?  If Conservative turnout is depressed and black turnout is increased do you think North Carolina could have <5% margin?  I don't think Obama could win here unless there was at least a semi-landslide but the combination of northern transplants, increased black participation, and an unmotivated GOP base could perhaps result in a 52-48 McCain victory rather than the double digit margins Bush ran up here in the last two elections.

You forget a factor in this race. It begins with "racist" and it ends with "whites". I don't think Obama will make it close in North Carolina but he may do better there than in the Deep South.

North Carolina isn't like he rest of the south. It isn't as "racist" as people are playing it out to be. Obama will have a very good shot at NC.  He will do very well in the Triad and Triangle (both areas are trending more democratic). Also he will get 60% or better in almost all the counties in the Northeastern part of NC and do well in Asheville.  I believe NC will be closer then most think.

[TomC]

Definitely lean McCain, but there's hope.

[Gustaf]

How close do you think North Carolina would be in a McCain-Obama race?  If Conservative turnout is depressed and black turnout is increased do you think North Carolina could have <5% margin?  I don't think Obama could win here unless there was at least a semi-landslide but the combination of northern transplants, increased black participation, and an unmotivated GOP base could perhaps result in a 52-48 McCain victory rather than the double digit margins Bush ran up here in the last two elections.

You forget a factor in this race. It begins with "racist" and it ends with "whites". I don't think Obama will make it close in North Carolina but he may do better there than in the Deep South.

North Carolina isn't like he rest of the south. It isn't as "racist" as people are playing it out to be. Obama will have a very good shot at NC.  He will do very well in the Triad and Triangle (both areas are trending more democratic). Also he will get 60% or better in almost all the counties in the Northeastern part of NC and do well in Asheville.  I believe NC will be closer then most think.

I don't think it's more racist than Albama or Mississippi. But look at how thing turned out in Oklahoma and Tennessee. And all the other Southern states. I think it'd definitely be a factor.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

North Carolina isn't like he rest of the south.

And that drunk is no son of mine, right?

[Josh/Devilman88]

How close do you think North Carolina would be in a McCain-Obama race?  If Conservative turnout is depressed and black turnout is increased do you think North Carolina could have <5% margin?  I don't think Obama could win here unless there was at least a semi-landslide but the combination of northern transplants, increased black participation, and an unmotivated GOP base could perhaps result in a 52-48 McCain victory rather than the double digit margins Bush ran up here in the last two elections.

You forget a factor in this race. It begins with "racist" and it ends with "whites". I don't think Obama will make it close in North Carolina but he may do better there than in the Deep South.

North Carolina isn't like he rest of the south. It isn't as "racist" as people are playing it out to be. Obama will have a very good shot at NC.  He will do very well in the Triad and Triangle (both areas are trending more democratic). Also he will get 60% or better in almost all the counties in the Northeastern part of NC and do well in Asheville.  I believe NC will be closer then most think.

I don't think it's more racist than Albama or Mississippi. But look at how thing turned out in Oklahoma and Tennessee. And all the other Southern states. I think it'd definitely be a factor.

NC is way different then OK and TN.  NC is way more liberal the both of them states put together.  Obama will win the state in the primary by 20% or more.

[Josh/Devilman88]

North Carolina isn't like he rest of the south.

And that drunk is no son of mine, right?

How is NC like the rest of the south.

[Gustaf]

How close do you think North Carolina would be in a McCain-Obama race?  If Conservative turnout is depressed and black turnout is increased do you think North Carolina could have <5% margin?  I don't think Obama could win here unless there was at least a semi-landslide but the combination of northern transplants, increased black participation, and an unmotivated GOP base could perhaps result in a 52-48 McCain victory rather than the double digit margins Bush ran up here in the last two elections.

You forget a factor in this race. It begins with "racist" and it ends with "whites". I don't think Obama will make it close in North Carolina but he may do better there than in the Deep South.

North Carolina isn't like he rest of the south. It isn't as "racist" as people are playing it out to be. Obama will have a very good shot at NC.  He will do very well in the Triad and Triangle (both areas are trending more democratic). Also he will get 60% or better in almost all the counties in the Northeastern part of NC and do well in Asheville.  I believe NC will be closer then most think.

I don't think it's more racist than Albama or Mississippi. But look at how thing turned out in Oklahoma and Tennessee. And all the other Southern states. I think it'd definitely be a factor.

NC is way different then OK and TN.  NC is way more liberal the both of them states put together.  Obama will win the state in the primary by 20% or more.

He won the Alabama primary in a land-slide but that doesn't make it liberal.

We agree about the trend but not about the size. I'd say that the state which as recently as 1996 picked Jesse Helms over a black man by a clear margin does not really qualify as liberal though...

[Josh/Devilman88]

How close do you think North Carolina would be in a McCain-Obama race?  If Conservative turnout is depressed and black turnout is increased do you think North Carolina could have <5% margin?  I don't think Obama could win here unless there was at least a semi-landslide but the combination of northern transplants, increased black participation, and an unmotivated GOP base could perhaps result in a 52-48 McCain victory rather than the double digit margins Bush ran up here in the last two elections.

You forget a factor in this race. It begins with "racist" and it ends with "whites". I don't think Obama will make it close in North Carolina but he may do better there than in the Deep South.

North Carolina isn't like he rest of the south. It isn't as "racist" as people are playing it out to be. Obama will have a very good shot at NC.  He will do very well in the Triad and Triangle (both areas are trending more democratic). Also he will get 60% or better in almost all the counties in the Northeastern part of NC and do well in Asheville.  I believe NC will be closer then most think.

I don't think it's more racist than Albama or Mississippi. But look at how thing turned out in Oklahoma and Tennessee. And all the other Southern states. I think it'd definitely be a factor.

NC is way different then OK and TN.  NC is way more liberal the both of them states put together.  Obama will win the state in the primary by 20% or more.

He won the Alabama primary in a land-slide but that doesn't make it liberal.

We agree about the trend but not about the size. I'd say that the state which as recently as 1996 picked Jesse Helms over a black man by a clear margin does not really qualify as liberal though...

The NC of 1996 and the NC of 2008 is a whole lot different.  NC of 2008 has more Northern liberals in it.  NC had a population of about 6,000,0000 in 1996 NOW NC has 9,000,000 people in NC and alot of them people came from NY, NJ, MI and FL bringing with them their liberal minded views.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

North Carolina isn't like he rest of the south.

And that drunk is no son of mine, right?

How is NC like the rest of the south.

Well, it's a state with a fundamental division between upland and lowland areas, with the economy of the former being industrial (traditionally textiles) and the economy of the latter being historically dominated by cash-crop agriculture. As a result of the old plantation/slavocracy system, rural lowland areas have large black populations, while there are also sizeable black populations in the state's major cities. The state also has a long and ugly history of discrimination against its black population (who were something like fourth class citizens until the 1960's). In religious terms the state is overwhelmingly Protestant and the Southern Baptist Convention is by far the largest Church.

Extremely basic and full of sweeping generalisations, but in these ways North Carolina is very much like the rest of the South.

[Sam Spade]

Good luck, Obama.  You're going to need it.  And probably a good bit more than that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The NC of 1996 and the NC of 2008 is a whole lot different.  NC of 2008 has more Northern liberals in it.  NC had a population of about 6,000,0000 in 1996 NOW NC has 9,000,000 people in NC

What? More like 7.5 million in 1996 and about 8.8 million now ("now" meaning "in 2006").

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...because when I think of racial harmony, I think of New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Florida...

[Josh/Devilman88]

North Carolina isn't like he rest of the south.

And that drunk is no son of mine, right?

How is NC like the rest of the south.

Well, it's a state with a fundamental division between upland and lowland areas, with the economy of the former being industrial (traditionally textiles) and the economy of the latter being historically dominated by cash-crop agriculture. As a result of the old plantation/slavocracy system, rural lowland areas have large black populations, while there are also sizeable black populations in the state's major cities. The state also has a long and ugly history of discrimination against its black population (who were something like fourth class citizens until the 1960's). In religious terms the state is overwhelmingly Protestant and the Southern Baptist Convention is by far the largest Church.

Extremely basic and full of sweeping generalisations, but in these ways North Carolina is very much like the rest of the South.

NC has more rasicm between whites and mexicans then whites and blacks. NC has changed alot over the past couple of years. Anyways this is getting off subject

[elcorazon]

Obama will win North Carolina vs. McCain as he sweeps to an easy electoral victory.

I'm getting pretty sick of the proposition that all or most southern whites are racists.  I don't buy it at all.  I believe that after a long campaign most reasonable southern whites who generally would consider voting democrat will ultimately make the only logical choice and choose Obama.  Of course lots of whites in ALL the states are hard core Republicans who won't consider Obama, but they wouldn't consider Clinton, Edwards, Richardson, Biden or probably even Lieberman either.

[agcatter]

NC in the general election?  Paleeeez.

Bush carried it by 13 pts each of the last two elections.  No contest.  Spend the money in Ohio Dems.  Next we will be talking about McCain carrying New Jersey.  LOL

[elcorazon]

NC in the general election?  Paleeeez.

Bush carried it by 13 pts each of the last two elections.  No contest.  Spend the money in Ohio Dems.  Next we will be talking about McCain carrying New Jersey.  LOL

I wouldn't focus my campaign there.  Obama is not John Kerry.  McCain is not much more appealing than Bush, and he's older.  Obama's going to win this thing by a wide wide margin and NC going his way is just a small piece in his easy victory.

[Josh/Devilman88]

NC in the general election?  Paleeeez.

Bush carried it by 13 pts each of the last two elections.  No contest.  Spend the money in Ohio Dems.  Next we will be talking about McCain carrying New Jersey.  LOL

Bush vs John Kerry... half the people stayed home because they hated both candidates.

[Sam Spade]

NC in the general election?  Paleeeez.

Bush carried it by 13 pts each of the last two elections.  No contest.  Spend the money in Ohio Dems.  Next we will be talking about McCain carrying New Jersey.  LOL

Bush vs John Kerry... half the people stayed home because they hated both candidates.

The effectiveness of Mr. Haircut?  RV turnout was 64% however...

[Duke 🇺🇸]

NC in the general election?  Paleeeez.

Bush carried it by 13 pts each of the last two elections.  No contest.  Spend the money in Ohio Dems.  Next we will be talking about McCain carrying New Jersey.  LOL

Bush vs John Kerry... half the people stayed home because they hated both candidates.

And that's why each candidate received a record amount of votes and turnout was the highest since 1964?

[Josh/Devilman88]

NC in the general election?  Paleeeez.

Bush carried it by 13 pts each of the last two elections.  No contest.  Spend the money in Ohio Dems.  Next we will be talking about McCain carrying New Jersey.  LOL

Bush vs John Kerry... half the people stayed home because they hated both candidates.

And that's why each candidate received a record amount of votes and turnout was the highest since 1964?

They got record amounts of votes because more poeple live in NC then the past.

[Sam Spade]

NC
2004 - 55% VAP, 64% RV
2000 - 48% VAP, 57% RV
1996 - 46% VAP, 58% RV
1992 - 50% VAP, 68% RV
1988 - 43% VAP, 62% RV
1984 - 47% VAP, 67% RV
1980 - 43% VAP, 63% RV
1976 - 43% VAP, 66% RV
1972 - 43% VAP, 64% RV

[Gustaf]

Obama will win North Carolina vs. McCain as he sweeps to an easy electoral victory.

I'm getting pretty sick of the proposition that all or most southern whites are racists.  I don't buy it at all.  I believe that after a long campaign most reasonable southern whites who generally would consider voting democrat will ultimately make the only logical choice and choose Obama.  Of course lots of whites in ALL the states are hard core Republicans who won't consider Obama, but they wouldn't consider Clinton, Edwards, Richardson, Biden or probably even Lieberman either.

I'm not saying all or most Southern whites are racists. I'm saying that there are enough that are to make it an uphill-battle for Obama. Anyway, since you're so confident in your opinion I'd like an explanation of the following numbers (percentage of white vote that Obama got):

South Carolina: 23.8%
Georgia: 43%
Alabama: 23.7%
Tennessee: 26.1%
Oklahoma: 27.9%
Louisiana: 29.4%

Of course, it could be for completely other reasons. Maybe Obama isn't good for white folks or maybe blacks tend to be younger and richer, since we know those groups tend more towards Obama. But it sure looks like he got some issues with the white Democratic primary electorate. While it could of course be the case that the Democratic primary voters are more racist than your average voter I doubt that is true. I can only assume that Obama will do worse with the Southern white vote than a regular Democrat and that this makes it an upphill battle in most SOuthern states.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Obama will win North Carolina vs. McCain as he sweeps to an easy electoral victory.

I'm getting pretty sick of the proposition that all or most southern whites are racists.  I don't buy it at all.  I believe that after a long campaign most reasonable southern whites who generally would consider voting democrat will ultimately make the only logical choice and choose Obama.  Of course lots of whites in ALL the states are hard core Republicans who won't consider Obama, but they wouldn't consider Clinton, Edwards, Richardson, Biden or probably even Lieberman either.

I'm not saying all or most Southern whites are racists. I'm saying that there are enough that are to make it an uphill-battle for Obama. Anyway, since you're so confident in your opinion I'd like an explanation of the following numbers (percentage of white vote that Obama got):

South Carolina: 23.8%
Georgia: 43%
Alabama: 23.7%
Tennessee: 26.1%
Oklahoma: 27.9%
Louisiana: 29.4%

Of course, it could be for completely other reasons. Maybe Obama isn't good for white folks or maybe blacks tend to be younger and richer, since we know those groups tend more towards Obama. But it sure looks like he got some issues with the white Democratic primary electorate. While it could of course be the case that the Democratic primary voters are more racist than your average voter I doubt that is true. I can only assume that Obama will do worse with the Southern white vote than a regular Democrat and that this makes it an upphill battle in most SOuthern states.

In all of them states but GA they have what we call "Old Democrats". Who are middle to lower classes white folks. People who just made it out of high school. They group like Clinton better the Obama.

[elcorazon]

true.  and in SC, Edwards was still running and is a native.  He cut into Obama's percentage there.  Most of those white Clinton voters will vote Obama in the fall.  Those states are an uphill battle for Obama because they have been Republican states in national elections for many years now.