Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Verily]

Wow, the Greens weren't even close to nominating candidates in every riding. Ha!

And correct me if I am wrong, but it looks like the NDP is the only party to have nominated candidates in every riding.

Wikipedia says the NDP missed a riding, too. Not sure which one; probably one of the BC ridings where they lost their candidate. The Liberals are also 6 candidates short of the 307 expected. It may all be a delay in reporting the final registrations, though.

[Hash]

Pundit's Guide says every party has nominated the number of candidates they committed too.

[Hatman 🍁]

Pundit's Guide says every party has nominated the number of candidates they committed too.

the Green's only committed to 305 seats? why are they sitting out of one in BC?

[Hash]

Pundit's Guide says every party has nominated the number of candidates they committed too.

the Green's only committed to 305 seats? why are they sitting out of one in BC?

I think Pundit's Guide did not add the Green candidate in Cariboo – Prince George. Elections Canada, which is the best source for this, has one Greenie running there.

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada:
CPC 38
LPC 27
NDP 21
BQ 8
GPC 6

Nanos Quebec:
BQ 34
CPC 27
NDP 19
LPC 16
GPC 6

NDP is better than Liberals in Quebec for now. That is surprising.

Edit: sorry for the typo.

[Hash]

Greenies at 2? No way. Nanos is losing it.

[Verily]

Greenies at 2? No way. Nanos is losing it.

Greens are at 6, not 2. Nanos must be doing some weighting that favors stated Green voters staying with the Liberals; their big disagreement with the other polls is much higher Liberal support and much lower Green support. They may well be right; we'll see.

[MaxQue]

Safe Bloc
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou
Abitibi—Témiscamingue
Argenteuil—Papineau—Mirabel
Bas-Richelieu—Nicolet—Bécancour
Chambly—Borduas
Châteauguay—Saint-Constant
Hochelaga
Joliette
La Pointe-de-l'Île
Laurentides—Labelle
Laurier—Sainte-Marie
Laval
Longueuil—Pierre-Boucher
Manicouagan
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
Montcalm
Repentigny
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
Rivière-du-Nord
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie
Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert
Saint-Lambert
Sherbrooke
Terrebonne—Blainville
Verchères—Les Patriotes

Lean Bloc
Alfred-Pellan
Beauharnois—Salaberry
Compton—Stanstead
Drummond
Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia
Jeanne-Le Ber
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup
Québec
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques
Saint-Jean
Shefford
Vaudreuil—Soulanges

Safe Conservative
Beauce
Beauport—Limoilou
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles
Jonquière—Alma
Lévis—Bellechasse
Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Louis-Saint-Laurent
Mégantic—L'Érable

Lean Conservative
Louis-Hébert
Pontiac
Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean
Trois-Rivières

Safe Liberal
Bourassa
Honoré-Mercier
Lac-Saint-Louis
LaSalle—Émard
Mount Royal
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine
Pierrefonds—Dollard
Saint-Laurent—Cartierville
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel

Lean Liberal
Laval—Les Îles


Lean NDP
Outremont

Safe Independent
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier

Too close to call
Ahuntsic
Brome—Missisquoi
Brossard—La Prairie
Papineau
Richmond—Arthabaska
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot
Berthier—Maskinongé
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord
Saint-Maurice—Champlain
Hull—Aylmer
Westmount—Ville-Marie
Gatineau

[Verily]

Any additional thoughts on the wild free-for-all in Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques?

[Meeker]

I hope we see the return of high-quality advertising such as this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMsqEph7a8I&feature=related

I still can't get through it without laughing

[minionofmidas]

Any additional thoughts on the wild free-for-all in Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques?

So, what's the situation? Thibault is running, all the other parties have candidates too? Paper candidates I presume? Should be a purely Thibault vs Bloc battle, Bloc favored.

[Verily]

Any additional thoughts on the wild free-for-all in Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques?

So, what's the situation? Thibault is running, all the other parties have candidates too? Paper candidates I presume? Should be a purely Thibault vs Bloc battle, Bloc favored.

Not so simple. Split the Bloc vote in half and you're only barely above the Conservative and Liberal votes in 2006, and that assumes the federalist vote doesn't coalesce (as the two split evenly in 2006). Plus, the Bloc is down on 2006 in the polls.

[minionofmidas]

Any additional thoughts on the wild free-for-all in Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques?

So, what's the situation? Thibault is running, all the other parties have candidates too? Paper candidates I presume? Should be a purely Thibault vs Bloc battle, Bloc favored.

Not so simple. Split the Bloc vote in half and you're only barely above the Conservative and Liberal votes in 2006, and that assumes the federalist vote doesn't coalesce (as the two split evenly in 2006). Plus, the Bloc is down on 2006 in the polls.

She'll siphon off some of their votes as the best chance to beat the bloc. Besides, some of those pointless gesture Con and Lib voters of 06 will be pointlessly voting NDP now.

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada:
CPC 37 (-1)
LPC 26 (-1)
NDP 21 (0)
BQ 9 (+1)
GPC 7 (+1)

Nanos Quebec:
BQ 40 (+6)
CPC 23 (-4)
NDP 18 (-1)
LPC 14 (-2)
GPC 5 (-1)

The Liberal slide is not stopping.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thibault wont be much of a factor, it'll be a Cons. - BQ race.

And those Nanos numbers have me drooling. How low can the Libs go?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can't bring myself to believe that 14% in Quebec is even possible for the Liberals, let alone the reality. Montreal will be fun if true.

[Verily]

I can't bring myself to believe that 14% in Quebec is even possible for the Liberals, let alone the reality. Montreal will be fun if true.

They could just get totally annihilated everywhere except Montreal (as in, all fourth and fifth place finishes) instead of losing random ultrasafe seats on the island. But Hull and Westmount would be absolutely lost to the NDP if the NDP finished ahead of the Liberals in Quebec.

[cinyc]

I hope we see the return of high-quality advertising such as this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMsqEph7a8I&feature=related

I still can't get through it without laughing

Worst campaign ad ever.   It's not supposed to be funny - but it is.

[2952-0-0]

^ That was seen by everyone as an admission that the Liberals were giving up.

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't bring myself to believe that 14% in Quebec is even possible for the Liberals, let alone the reality. Montreal will be fun if true.

They could just get totally annihilated everywhere except Montreal (as in, all fourth and fifth place finishes) instead of losing random ultrasafe seats on the island. But Hull and Westmount would be absolutely lost to the NDP if the NDP finished ahead of the Liberals in Quebec.

And Gatineau..

[Verily]

I can't bring myself to believe that 14% in Quebec is even possible for the Liberals, let alone the reality. Montreal will be fun if true.

They could just get totally annihilated everywhere except Montreal (as in, all fourth and fifth place finishes) instead of losing random ultrasafe seats on the island. But Hull and Westmount would be absolutely lost to the NDP if the NDP finished ahead of the Liberals in Quebec.

And Gatineau..

Gatineau is not a Liberal-held seat, but yes.

[Verily]

Big news, Julian West has withdrawn as the NDP candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands, after the deadline. That really blasts that race wide open for the Greens (Andrew Lewis running again) and the Liberals (running former BC Green Briony Penn) against incumbent Conservative Gary Lunn.

Also, for the first time maybe ever, certainly in a long time, no party is running a full slate of candidates.

[Smid]

Gary Lunn is an unfaithful traitor and I would not be disappointed if this was the only tory seat to fall.

[Verily]

Gary Lunn is an unfaithful traitor and I would not be disappointed if this was the only tory seat to fall.

Is this about the DRC? An odd outburst from you, certainly.

[Smid]

Gary Lunn is an unfaithful traitor and I would not be disappointed if this was the only tory seat to fall.

Is this about the DRC? An odd outburst from you, certainly.

Yes, it is about the DRC, and particularly the fact that he was one of the first to criticise Day when he won the leadership of the Canadian Alliance Party in a democratic ballot of members. Gary Lunn is more interested in winning internal party battles than promoting conservatism in Canada. I group Lunn, Deborah Grey, Chuck Strahl, et al in the same group: traitors.