Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Hash]

What's with EKOS and their higher numbers for the NDP?

We're seeing conflicting analysis of the first week. EKOS and some others say the Tories are losing points, and Harris-Decima says they're gaining and on the verge of a majority.

[2952-0-0]

Anyone seen the NDP Rovian attack ads? They turn Stephen Harper's "Strong Leadership" theme against him.

It's also strange that the Canada debate will take place on the same time as the Biden/Palin VP debate.

[Hash]

It's also strange that the Canada debate will take place on the same time as the Biden/Palin VP debate.

Judging by how boring the first week has been, I wouldn't be surprised if the US debate captured more audiences than the federal debate in Canada.

I've only seen one TV ad- a Lib Green Shift thingee.

[Verily]

We're seeing conflicting analysis of the first week. EKOS and some others say the Tories are losing points, and Harris-Decima says they're gaining and on the verge of a majority.

EKOS is giving their numbers for each day in the tracking poll, and they're showing a definite Conservative decline (39-37-35-34 over the course of the past four days). The other numbers don't have much pattern, though: The Libs are 24-27-25-27, the NDP 22-19-18-19, the Greens 10-10-11-12, and the BQ 6-7-11-8.

One interesting problem for the Liberals--they're doing terribly with the youth vote. They're in third, three points behind the NDP and only a point ahead of the Greens, among under-25s. (Under-25 vote is 37C-22N-19L-18G-12B.)

EKOS's regional breakdown also mostly makes sense now, although I think they're understating the BQ and overstating the Liberals in Quebec.

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008/09/tory-lead-over-liberals-drops-8-points-in-first-week-of-campaign/

Edit: Something weird about their regional numbers: EKOS has way more BC voters than they should. But maybe they're weighting it in the poll itself and just using the full sample size in their regional breakdown.

[Smid]

An update on Bill Casey's riding.

Since I was bored, I looked up the candidates.

Apart from him, the Conservatives are running Joel Bernard. He is from New Brunswick and lives in Orleans (next door to Ottawa). I doubt he's even been to Cumberland-Colchester. Lol.

The Liberals are running Tracy Parsons, the former leader of the Progressive Canadian thingee that has since been almost entirely absorbed into the Liberal Party.

Safe Indie.

Joel Bernard is fantastic! I'm a massive fan!

[cinyc]

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It's not all that strange, if you think about it.  There will be no new American programming for CTV and Global to simulcast that night anyway.  So why not replace what would otherwise be repeats or ad hoc Canadian programming with the ultimate in Canadian programming?  The  Presidential debates are too early in the Canadian election cycle or a bit too late.

[MaxQue]

Laurier University prediction map:

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/fedblog/?page_id=46

Their Maritime predictions are a bit silly.

This site is a joke. According to them, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel will vote liberal. That is in dark red on the map. That is ridiculous, this is a BQ riding 1993. Liberals were third in 2006 with 13,4% and 20684 votes away from the winner.

[Hash]

Laurier University prediction map:

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/fedblog/?page_id=46

Their Maritime predictions are a bit silly.

This site is a joke. According to them, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel will vote liberal. That is in dark red on the map. That is ridiculous, this is a BQ riding 1993. Liberals were third in 2006 with 13,4% and 20684 votes away from the winner.

Oh, indeed. I didn't notice that. Lol.

As my grand-aunt would say, faut pas regarder de trop pres.

An update on Bill Casey's riding.

Since I was bored, I looked up the candidates.

Apart from him, the Conservatives are running Joel Bernard. He is from New Brunswick and lives in Orleans (next door to Ottawa). I doubt he's even been to Cumberland-Colchester. Lol.

The Liberals are running Tracy Parsons, the former leader of the Progressive Canadian thingee that has since been almost entirely absorbed into the Liberal Party.

Safe Indie.

Joel Bernard is fantastic! I'm a massive fan!

What has he done except being a carpetbagger?

[minionofmidas]

Laurier University prediction map:

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/fedblog/?page_id=46

Their Maritime predictions are a bit silly.

This site is a joke. According to them, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel will vote liberal. That is in dark red on the map. That is ridiculous, this is a BQ riding 1993. Liberals were third in 2006 with 13,4% and 20684 votes away from the winner.

Oh, indeed. I didn't notice that. Lol.

As my grand-aunt would say, faut pas regarder de trop pres.

An update on Bill Casey's riding.

Since I was bored, I looked up the candidates.

Apart from him, the Conservatives are running Joel Bernard. He is from New Brunswick and lives in Orleans (next door to Ottawa). I doubt he's even been to Cumberland-Colchester. Lol.

The Liberals are running Tracy Parsons, the former leader of the Progressive Canadian thingee that has since been almost entirely absorbed into the Liberal Party.

Safe Indie.

Joel Bernard is fantastic! I'm a massive fan!

What has he done except being a carpetbagger?

I think Smid was being sarcastic.

I also think he did what I just did, and looked Bernard up on Wikipedia.

[Smid]

No, didn't look him up and was being completely serious. Won't discuss it any more than that, though.

[minionofmidas]

Now I'm intrigued.

A different Joel Bernard? A quick scan of his campaign website? Personal interaction a while back where he came across as a very nice guy? What?

[Hash]

Google has a hard time finding other relevant Joel Bernards. Facebook found a person with a baby picture (I wouldn't be surprised if he was the Tory candidate).

[Hatman 🍁]

I will be providing more analysis as soon as I get net access at my place (should be soon, I hope!)

On Thursday, the NDP nominated a friend of mine, Hijal De Sarkar as the candidate in my former riding of Ottawa South

[Harry Hayfield]

This is my forecast based on a three day moving average at the end of the first week

% Vote Shares
Con 37.58% Lib 28.34% NDP 16.00% Greens 9.32% Bloc 8.50% Others 0.26%
Con lead of 9.24%

Forecast Composition of the House
Con 138 (+14) Lib 95 (-8) Bloc 47 (-4)NDP 28 (-1) Con short of an overall majority by 17

[Hash]

The Bloc is not losing only four seats.

[Verily]

Saturday - September 13, 2008

Nanos Tracking Poll
Conservatives - 38% (nc)
Liberals - 30% (-1)
New Democrats - 15% (+1)
Bloc Québécois - 9% (nc)
Greens - 8% (-1)

Ipsos-Reid
Conservatives - 38% (+4)
Liberals: 29% (-2)
New Democrats: 13% (-1)
Greens: 11% (+1)
Bloc Québécois - 8% (-1)
(Changes are on a 28 Aug poll.)

The polls seem to be coalescing around a certain point, suggesting that the Conservatives have gained a couple of points since 2006, the Liberals and NDP have each lost a couple of points, the Greens have approximately doubled their support, and, although it is difficult to measure Bloc support on a national scale, the Bloc has probably fallen five to ten points within Quebec itself.

[Hash]

Ipsos gives the Liberals a 7 point lead in Ontario and the Bloc a 10 point lead in Quebec.

[Hash]

Harper was in Newfoundland today. Needless to say, Williams wasn't waiting for him at his arrival.

[MaxQue]

Harper was in Newfoundland today. Needless to say, Williams wasn't waiting for him at his arrival.

I am surprised than he didn't organise a protestation to expell Harper from Newfoundland with slogan like ''You are not welcome here, return in Alberta''.

[Frodo]

When is this election supposed to take place?  November? 

[MaxQue]

When is this election supposed to take place?  November? 

October 14th.

[Cubby]

I can't decide whether to support the Liberals or the NDP, so I'll support both.

I've found that a lot of Western left wing parties aren't very nice to Israel. Its not a huge issue for me, but it is important. It might be the one thing I prefer Harper on, but he's terrible for most everything else.

(Under-25 vote is 37C-22N-19L-18G-12B.)

What the hell? Young people aren't supposed to favor (small "c") conservative parties by that big of a margin. This is an outrage.

[minionofmidas]

I can't decide whether to support the Liberals or the NDP, so I'll support both.

I've found that a lot of Western left wing parties aren't very nice to Israel. Its not a huge issue for me, but it is important. It might be the one thing I prefer Harper on, but he's terrible for most everything else.

(Under-25 vote is 37C-22N-19L-18G-12B.)

What the hell? Young people aren't supposed to favor (small "c") conservative parties by that big of a margin. This is an outrage.

They don't. Check the NDP and Green vote.

Moreover, check the total - 108.
Guess one figure is off by ten... pretty easy to spot which is the most likely...

[Cubby]

They don't. Check the NDP and Green vote.

Moreover, check the total - 108.
Guess one figure is off by ten... pretty easy to spot which is the most likely...

Thats better, but the Tories are still leading by 5 points in that event.

Are left-wingers defecting to the Greens only from the Liberals, or from the NDP a bit as well?

[Hash]

I can't decide whether to support the Liberals or the NDP, so I'll support both.

That's quite an interesting combo of support right there.

I just found this gem: http://www.ndp4tory.ca/