Potomac Tuesday prediction thread

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

When Mason-Dixon, Survey USA and Rasmussen are in very tight agreement about Virginia, I think you should agree with them, too, J. J.

Hell, and Insider Advantage, too, for what they're worth.

J.J. honestly believes that despite the GOP race being all but over the independents will mostly vote for McCain instead, but then again he also believes Hillary would lose Illinois in the general.

[Flying Dog]

District of Columbia:
Obama: 74%
Clinton: 24%

Maryland:
Obama: 60%
Clinton: 39%

Virginia:
Obama: 56%
Clinton: 42%

[Kaine for Senate '18]

District of Columbia:
Obama: 83%
Clinton: 17%

Maryland:
Obama: 54%
Clinton: 46%

Virginia:
Clinton: 53%
Obama: 47%

[Gabu]

When Mason-Dixon, Survey USA and Rasmussen are in very tight agreement about Virginia, I think you should agree with them, too, J. J.

Hell, and Insider Advantage, too, for what they're worth.

J.J. honestly believes that despite the GOP race being all but over the independents will mostly vote for McCain instead, but then again he also believes Hillary would lose Illinois in the general.

I'm not exactly sure it's a good idea to gloat about how wrong someone is before they're actually known to be wrong, in the off-chance that they turn out to be right.

[Ben.]

When Mason-Dixon, Survey USA and Rasmussen are in very tight agreement about Virginia, I think you should agree with them, too, J. J.

Hell, and Insider Advantage, too, for what they're worth.

J.J. honestly believes that despite the GOP race being all but over the independents will mostly vote for McCain instead, but then again he also believes Hillary would lose Illinois in the general.

I'm not exactly sure it's a good idea to gloat about how wrong someone is before they're actually known to be wrong, in the off-chance that they turn out to be right.

Remember NH... heck! It's going to be years before i trust a poll as implicitley as i once did.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Don't forget Democrats Abroad.

If Obama wins all 4 contests by a large margin, it's starting to look pretty much over for Clinton. That will be 9 large margin losses in a row. The best Clinton can do is hope they call New Mexico, and hope that everyone forgot that they actually voted a week ago.

[J. J.]

When Mason-Dixon, Survey USA and Rasmussen are in very tight agreement about Virginia, I think you should agree with them, too, J. J.

Hell, and Insider Advantage, too, for what they're worth.

J.J. honestly believes that despite the GOP race being all but over the independents will mostly vote for McCain instead, but then again he also believes Hillary would lose Illinois in the general.

No, I said she could lose IL, depending on how much she beats up on Obama.

I do think some of those independents will go to McCain.  We'll see tomorrow.

[Lief 🗽]

I'm predicting that Obama, in a huge upset, wins 83% of the vote in DC, with 3% going to other, and Clinton fails to gain viability.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Democrats:

VA -  Obama 55-60  %
MD - Obama  60-65 %
DC - Obama  65-70 %

GOP:

VA-   McCain 45-50,  Huckabee 40-45,  Paul 12
MD - McCain 50-55,  Huckabee  35-40, Paul 10
DC - McCain 60-65,  Huckabee 20-25,  Paul 8   

[Kaine for Senate '18]

District of Columbia:
McCain: 74%
Paul: 16%
Huckabee: 10%

Maryland:
McCain: 56%
Huckabee: 35%
Paul: 9%

Virginia:
McCain: 53%
Huckabee: 35%
Paul: 12%

[True Democrat]

I'll take a stab:

Maryland:
Obama: 58%
Clinton: 40%
Others: 2%

McCain: 54%
Huckabee: 31%
Paul: 8%
Others: 7%

DC:
Obama: 72%
Clinton: 27%
Others: 1%

McCain: 64%
Huckabee: 18%
Paul: 13%
Others: 5%

Virginia:
Obama: 56%
Clinton: 42%
Others: 2%

McCain: 47%
Huckabee: 44%
Paul: 6%
Others: 3%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

MD:

Obama 59%
Clinton 36%

McCain 58%
Huckabee 30%
Paul 11%

DC:

Obama 75%
Clinton 23%

McCain 74%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 11%

Virginia

Obama 56%
Clinton 43%

McCain 50%
Huckabee 38%
Paul 12%

[Floridude]

Democrats

DC:
Obama: 72%
Clinton: 25%

Maryland
Obama: 59%
Clinton: 38%

Virginia
Obama: 53%
Clinton: 45%

GOPsters

DC
McCain: 64%
Huckabee: 22%
Paul: 9%

Maryland
McCain: 56%
Huckabee: 35%
Paul: 6%

Virginia
McCain: 49%
Huckabee: 42%
Paul: 7%

Is it a given that McCain will win DC?  I've seen no polls out of there, and I have no idea of the demographic breakdown of the scant GOP electorate in DC.  I would assume as it is entirely urban, it will go for McCain over Huckabee.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

DC seems like it'd be pretty pro-establishment for the GOP side.

[Gabu]

DC is kind of like Idaho with Democrats, in that I'm surprised that there are actual Republicans in DC.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

DC is kind of like Idaho with Democrats, in that I'm surprised that there are actual Republicans in DC.

At least Idaho has Blaine County and Moscow.

[exopolitician]

I think Obama might do better in Virginia than expected, maybe not alot by some. He drew a crowd of 18,000+ in Virginia Beach yesterday...the most conservative part of the state. He might get around 60% or a few points over. Maryland and DC are safe Obama too...but I dont feel like posting numbers.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think Obama might do better in Virginia than expected, maybe not alot by some. He drew a crowd of 18,000+ in Virginia Beach yesterday...the most conservative part of the state. He might get around 60% or a few points over. Maryland and DC are safe Obama too...but I dont feel like posting numbers.

I would say that he's expected to get over 60% (or at least I'm sort-of expecting him to do that).

[bullmoose88]

Is Mike Huckabee hurting Obama? (is that partially why he's in the race?)

I mean this semi-seriously...If Huckabee dropped out, there'd be no serious competition for McCain left, he could cruise to the winning post...

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

If you're Joe Independent and you don't want Clinton or Huckabee to get their nom it's a no-brainer as to who's the bigger threat and thus who you vote for. I really doubt anyone's being kept up at night with nightmares that Huckabee might end up being the GOP nominee.

[Daniel Adams]

Constituent Dynamics just released a poll for the VA, MD, and DC Democratic races. Their report seems extremely thorough: they interviewed 14,276 voters between February 7-8 and even projected delegates for all races. Their poll results were:

MARYLAND: Obama 53% (38 delegates), Clinton 36% (26 delegates), 6 delegates too close to call

VIRGINIA: Obama 51% (45 delegates), Clinton 34% (32 delegates), 6 delegates too close to call

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA: Obama 63% (10 delegates), Clinton 27% (4 delegates), 1 delegate too close to call.

Their full report is here.

I've never heard of this polling company before, but based on their report alone it seems pretty reliable.

[bullmoose88]

If you're Joe Independent and you don't want Clinton or Huckabee to get their nom it's a no-brainer as to who's the bigger threat and thus who you vote for. I really doubt anyone's being kept up at night with nightmares that Huckabee might end up being the GOP nominee.

But in those open primary states, ie texas, it keeps many moderate republicans from supporting Obama...heck, some of my friends in PA have asked me to switch registrations to vote for Obama...I cant say I wasn't tempted...but I've gotta vote for McCain two primaries in a row.

[Eraserhead]

Final Prediction

DEM:

VA:

Obama 57%
Clinton 40%

MD:

Obama 59%
Clinton 39%

DC:

Obama 77%
Clinton 20%

GOP:

VA:

McCain 49%
Huckabee 40%
Paul 8%

MD:

McCain 53%
Huckabee 34%
Paul 11%

DC:

McCain 61%
Huckabee 23%
Paul 15%

[Gabu]

Their report seems extremely thorough: they interviewed 14,276 voters between February 7-8 and even projected delegates for all races.

Actually, getting really large sample sizes is, to me, a bad sign, not a good sign, as it indicates that the polling firm doesn't understand what makes a good poll.  The emphasis of a good polling firm should be on making your sample size representative, not large.  As was made so acutely apparent from the famous 1936 Literary Digest poll of some two million people, you can make your sample size as large as you like, but after you get above a thousand or so people, it really doesn't matter.  The Gallup poll for the same race surveyed less than a thousand people and got it bang on, in comparison to the Digest's absolutely laughable result.

[bullmoose88]

Their report seems extremely thorough: they interviewed 14,276 voters between February 7-8 and even projected delegates for all races.

Actually, getting really large sample sizes is, to me, a bad sign, not a good sign, as it indicates that the polling firm doesn't understand what makes a good poll.  The emphasis of a good polling firm should be on making your sample size representative, not large.  As was made so acutely apparent from the famous 1936 Literary Digest poll of some two million people, you can make your sample size as large as you like, but after you get above a thousand or so people, it really doesn't matter.  The Gallup poll for the same race surveyed less than a thousand people and got it bang on, in comparison to the Digest's absolutely laughable result.

What? You mean FDR won in 1936?