Potomac Tuesday prediction thread

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Since there isn't one up yet, here we go:

Maryland

Obama - 62
Clinton - 36

McCain - 58
Huckabee - 34
Paul - 5
Keyes - 1

Virginia

Obama - 57
Clinton - 41

McCain - 55
Huckabee - 40
Paul - 4

DC

Obama - 74
Clinton - 24

McCain - 63
Huckabee - 27
Paul - 8

[agcatter]

Obama wins all three:

Maryland - 59-38

Virginia    - 58-40

DC           - 73-24

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eh, it's basically impossible for Obama not to win all three. The margins might matter a little (but probably not; who doesn't expect Obama landslides in all three?) but the interesting part, why they're still worth watching despite the pre-ordained outcome, is the county results.

[Gustaf]

Eh, it's basically impossible for Obama not to win all three. The margins might matter a little (but probably not; who doesn't expect Obama landslides in all three?) but the interesting part, why they're still worth watching despite the pre-ordained outcome, is the county results.

Clinton will score an upset in DC. You read it here first.

[Iosif is a COTHO]

And I read it there last as well...

[MODU]

McCain and Obama should win out.

[elcorazon]

Obama wins all 3:

Maryland 70-29
DC 80-18
Virginia 60-40

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Gee you guys are giving Obama huge margins in VA.

I'm lousy at percentages but I think it will be closer in VA.

If he gets those huge margins in VA this will give him great mojo for TX and OH.

[Adlai Stevenson]

VIRGINIA -
57% Obama
42% Clinton


DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA -
71% Obama
27% Clinton


VIRGINIA -
62% Obama
36% Clinton

[elcorazon]

Obama's so hot he will win VA twice!

[Erc]

Eh, it's basically impossible for Obama not to win all three. The margins might matter a little (but probably not; who doesn't expect Obama landslides in all three?) but the interesting part, why they're still worth watching despite the pre-ordained outcome, is the county results.

Clinton will score an upset in DC. You read it here first.

Gustaf has something of a point (if he's being serious)...DC is not going to be the sort of landslide that one sees in Presidential races.  There are more women in DC than nationally [if barely], and it's not that heavily black (57%).

Still, Obama will be flirting with 70%.

[Doomer]

Obama wins all three, with the closest race being in VA.

McCain wins all three as well, not sure which will be closest--haven't paid much attention to the polls on the Republican side.

[Ben.]

Gee you guys are giving Obama huge margins in VA.

Most of the predictions seem in line with the recent polls out of VA... having said that i cant belive that Clinton wont get some return in that state, her campaign has been targetting it hard over the last few days, then again she did the same in Maine and Washington (but they were both Caucuses). 

[Platypus]

MD:

Obama 58%
Clinton 39%

McCain 56%
Huckabee 32%
Paul 9%

DC:

Obama 64%
Clinton 35%

McCain 71%
Huckabee 15%
Paul 11%

Virginia

Obama 55%
Clinton 44%

McCain 58%
Huckabee 27%
Paul 4%

[J. J.]

Gee you guys are giving Obama huge margins in VA.

I'm lousy at percentages but I think it will be closer in VA.

If he gets those huge margins in VA this will give him great mojo for TX and OH.

I'm forced to agree with my good friend here.  There is a reasonably large Latino and Asian population.  Obama has to win VA by 10 points, or it's a strategic victory for Clinton.  I'm betting 46%, 52% Obama, with massively ugly exit polls.

Likewise, if McCain can devastate Huckabee in VA, it's over for Huckabee.  If he can't, the insurgency continues.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Likewise, if McCain can devastate Huckabee in VA, it's over for Huckabee.  If he can't, the insurgency continues.

J.J. did the Huck campaign hire you? 

[Josh/Devilman88]

MD-

Obama- 63%
Clinton- 35%
Other- 2%

VA-

Obama- 59%
Clinton 40%
Other- 1%

DC-

Obama- 78%
Clinton- 20%
Other- 2%

[J. J.]

Likewise, if McCain can devastate Huckabee in VA, it's over for Huckabee.  If he can't, the insurgency continues.

J.J. did the Huck campaign hire you? 

GM3PRP, if he did, do you have any doubt that he'd be leading by this point? 

Seriously, the one problem McCain could have is VA.  If Huckabee can break about 43%, its a strategic victory.  If he can't, he's old news.  There is an outside chance of an upset where Huckabee wins outright.

McCain will end the day with 35 plus delegates.  If he wins VA, it is 98 plus delegates.

[J. J.]

MD-

Obama- 61%
Clinton- 37%
Other- 2%

VA-

Obama- 53%
Clinton 45%
Other- 2%

DC-

Obama- 81%
Clinton- 18%
Other- 1%

VA is the one to watch in both parties.

[Verily]

When Mason-Dixon, Survey USA and Rasmussen are in very tight agreement about Virginia, I think you should agree with them, too, J. J.

Hell, and Insider Advantage, too, for what they're worth.

[J. J.]

When Mason-Dixon, Survey USA and Rasmussen are in very tight agreement about Virginia, I think you should agree with them, too, J. J.

Hell, and Insider Advantage, too, for what they're worth.

Call it a hunch, but I think she'll do a bit better than predicted.

[Tender Branson]

Virginia:

Obama: 55%
Clinton: 42%
Others: 3%

McCain: 49%
Huckabee: 40%
Paul: 6%
Others: 5%

Maryland:

Obama: 54%
Clinton: 43%
Others: 3%

McCain: 51%
Huckabee: 36%
Paul: 8%
Others: 5%

District of Columbia:

Obama: 72%
Clinton: 24%
Others: 4%

McCain: 60%
Huckabee: 25%
Paul: 10%
Others: 5%

[Mr.Phips]

I think Huckabee has to win Virginia if he is going to stay in this race. 

[© tweed]

MD

Obama 62
Clinton 36
other 2

VA

Obama 59
Clinton 38
other 3

DC

Obama 77
Clinton 22
other 1

[defe07]

Paul has been doing OK in Maryland and he should get double digits. He has alot of support in the UMd and other colleges. DC could be another good state for Paul (might even take 2nd place there) and Virginia is up for grabs I can't predict it (but he should stand a good chance to get double digits too). For the Democrats, I see major wins for Obama in MD and DC and a tight but well fought win in Virginia.