What is Hillary's strategy now?

[MarkWarner08]

That is what happens when you feel like you are an oppressed minority. You go to the dark side.

Which explains why Cubans still vote Republican.

Cubans were oppressed by liberals in Miami and environs. That would drive anyone towards the light of reason.   And then they took over, and become bourgeoise (sp, I can never spell that word right), and were not oppressed at all. Cheers.

Republicans never seem to complain about the inequalities of immigration law. If a Cuban-American reaches U.S soil, they are consided a political refugee and are thus granted citizienship. If a Haitian reaches American shores, they'll be turned back or deported.

This dichotomy give preferential treatment to likely Republican voters while  disenfranchising possible Democratic voters.  As expected, Republicans have done little to extend the Cuban Adjustment Act to cover Haitian immigrants.

[Torie]

What state is across the river from Dubuque? Now take that into account when determining who had the strongest GOTV operation and most volunteers.

That is a very good as a riposte. It is good to know that Obama's shock troops can turn around all those down market white Catholics just by swarming them in a river crossing that is sort of like Washington crossing the Delaware. Now explain why Obama carried by his statewide margin heavily Catholic Plymouth County which lies along another famous river that Louis and Clark traveled up.

[Torie]

That is what happens when you feel like you are an oppressed minority. You go to the dark side.

Which explains why Cubans still vote Republican.

Cubans were oppressed by liberals in Miami and environs. That would drive anyone towards the light of reason.   And then they took over, and become bourgeoise (sp, I can never spell that word right), and were not oppressed at all. Cheers.

Republicans never seem to complain about the inequalities of immigration law. If a Cuban-American reaches U.S soil, they are consided a political refugee and are thus granted citizienship. If a Haitian reaches American shores, they'll be turned back or deported.

This dichotomy give preferential treatment to likely Republican voters while  disenfranchising possible Democratic voters.  As expected, Republicans have done little to extend the Cuban Adjustment Act to cover Haitian immigrants.

Haitians are not fleeing from the Commies, but I take your point. Pubbies are just as opportunistic as Dems. Who knew?  But hey, the Haitians that manage to run the gauntlet tend to be more Pubbie in general than blacks in general, since they tend to be high achievers, due to that filter. Ain't that grand? 

[Ogre Mage]

She has to win TX, OH and PA.  Then she will make the argument that she is the national leader because she won almost all of major states:  New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Florida*, California, Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania. 

Of the three, I think Ohio is probably where she is most vulnerable, although the state tilts in her favor. It has a modest number of African-Americans.  It is an open primary which helps Clinton, though mitigated by the fact it is open.  The large number of working class whites is a demographic she has done well with and she has Gov. Ted Strickland in her corner.  She also has been more specific about the economy which should play well in this economically troubled state.  An Obama upset is not out of the question, although he probably is looking more to just reduce her margin of victory.  I could see him making inroads with the unions and working class whites here.

Texas is even better for Hillary.  To begin with, the Clintons are extremely well connected in the state.  Their presence goes all the way back to when they ran George McGovern's Presidential campaign there in 1972 and they have collected many allies and friends over the years.  I suspect Obama is going to have trouble with the mass number of rural whites in the state.  They certainly helped power Hillary to victory in Tenn. and Oklahoma.   Hispanics are about 35% of the population there -- a major demographic which will help Hillary. 

Unless Clinton's campaign has totally disintegrated, Obama has no chance in Pennsylvania.  The biggest stumbling block is that it is a closed Democratic Primary -- no independents allowed.  Add to that the masses of working class white voters which have favored her in primaries, a high percentage of seniors and the Rendell and Nutter political operations going to work on behalf of Clinton and you have as much of a fire-proof firewall as you are going to get outside of a candidate's home state.

[Beet]

What state is across the river from Dubuque? Now take that into account when determining who had the strongest GOTV operation and most volunteers.

That is a very good as a riposte. It is good to know that Obama's shock troops can turn around all those down market white Catholics just by swarming them in a river crossing that is sort of like Washington crossing the Delaware. Now explain why Obama carried by his statewide margin heavily Catholic Plymouth County which lies along another famous river that Louis and Clark traveled up.

So he carried a county that is, among "adherents" (full members who regularly attend services; not necessarily representative of the general Catholic population), 48% Catholic, with 40% of the vote; and an adjacent county, that is among "adherents" 8% Catholics, with 37% of the vote. What does this say about the significance of Catholicism in Obama's caucus support? I fail to see any.

[Torie]

I think we agree, actually. That was my point. The thesis was that Obama had a white lower middle and below Catholic problem.  I questioned the thesis.

[Beet]

I think we agree, actually. That was my point. The thesis was that Obama had a white lower middle and below Catholic problem.  I questioned the thesis.

Well, in the absence of any overwhelming verdict by looking at maps, the thesis is better proven (or disproven) by exit polls, rather than geographical data. Just looking at two states very quickly, I see no Catholic effect in Missouri, but there is a rather marked one in New Jersey (which could of course be confluenced with the Hispanic vote). Interestingly the strongest evidence could come from Illinois, where it appears that Clinton actually carried the Catholic vote. That's far too huge a discrepancy to assign to Illinois's Hispanic population, which after all Barack claims to have carried with 75%.