What is Hillary's strategy now?

[Alcon]

I actually have to disagree with Sam.  Outside of Anaconda-Butte, I think that Montana is just the kind of state that Obama could overperform in among union workers.

Blue-collar Catholics are his big problem.

I'm not sure that South Dakota being a primary will end up mattering much.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

She needs to make this all about Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. It's better than Rudy's strategy because it focuses on three big states that have important elements of the Dem base (seniors in PA, Hispanics in TX and union members in OH), not one.

Exactly. If she wins in TX and OH, she'll be one big win (read: PA) away from securing the nomination.  Obama's campaign must stop her on March 4th...

If Obama doesn't lose those by that many delegates, he doesn't need any of them.

As I mentioned on another thread - the rest of the map post-March 4 is not favorable either.

He will surely perform badly in Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia.  He'll probably win Oregon, but not by that much, as it is a primary.  Both Montana and South Dakota are primaries and Montana historically has a strong industrial presence (oddly).  North Carolina is a lot of delegates, but I suspect will be an ugly looking toss-up.

On the plus side, he'll only have Vermont, Wyoming (caucus) and Mississippi.

And then there's Puerto Rico. (which counts almost as much as the above 3 states)

These are all proportional. If Obama can minimize any lopsided losses, particularly in the bigger states, he should be in good shape.

[Padfoot]

She needs to make this all about Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. It's better than Rudy's strategy because it focuses on three big states that have important elements of the Dem base (seniors in PA, Hispanics in TX and union members in OH), not one.

Huh?  PA has an average percentage of seniors.

I think Hillary will win Wisconsin; it's rather like Ohio, IMO.

Not really.  Wisconsin and Ohio are not that similar IMO.  Wisconsin's rural areas are far more left leaning like Minnesota as apposed to Ohio's which are very much to the right.  I'm not sure how that will play out in a primary other than I would expect higher turnout relative to the Republicans in rural Wisconsin.

Just out of curiosity, how much of Wisconsin is in the Chicago media market and how heavily did Obama campaign in areas of northern Illinois that would have been covered on local Wisconsin news?

[Sam Spade]

But March also has WV, KY and IN which should all lean Clinton (not sure about IN though).

Indiana = few blacks.  Industrial lower-class element there as well as many moderate Dems...

[Sam Spade]

I actually have to disagree with Sam.  Outside of Anaconda-Butte, I think that Montana is just the kind of state that Obama could overperform in among union workers.

Blue-collar Catholics are his big problem.

I'm not sure that South Dakota being a primary will end up mattering much.

We shall see... 

[Keystone Phil]

Huh?  PA has an average percentage of seniors.

Huh? PA has the second highest amount of senior citizens. Florida has the highest.

And I totally forgot that Obama has a huge problem with Catholic voters. That's going to kill him in PA.

[Lief 🗽]

But March also has WV, KY and IN which should all lean Clinton (not sure about IN though).

Indiana = few blacks.  Industrial lower-class element there as well as many moderate Dems...

I don't know, Obama does about the same as Clinton does in general election polls in Indiana, unlike Kentucky and Oklahoma, for instance, where he gets absolutely blown out of the water (like worse than Kerry). So, while it probably leans Clinton, I think he'd have something of a chance there, to at least make it close.

[Alcon]

I actually have to disagree with Sam.  Outside of Anaconda-Butte, I think that Montana is just the kind of state that Obama could overperform in among union workers.

Blue-collar Catholics are his big problem.

I'm not sure that South Dakota being a primary will end up mattering much.

We shall see... 

Translation:

This idiot's going to be crying after the South Dakota primary.

[Torie]

I actually have to disagree with Sam.  Outside of Anaconda-Butte, I think that Montana is just the kind of state that Obama could overperform in among union workers.

Blue-collar Catholics are his big problem.

I'm not sure that South Dakota being a primary will end up mattering much.

What supports your thesis that blue collar Catholics are more hostile to Obama than blue collar Anglo Protestants?  Or is it that outside the South, there is no such thing as a blue collar Anglo Protestant anymore, at least one that votes in the Dem primary?

I agree with you about Montana. I doubt think it likes shrill feminists much, and there are no blacks around to annoy the insecure.

[Alcon]

What supports your thesis that blue collar Catholics are more hostile to Obama than blue collar Anglo Protestants?  Or is it that outside the South, there is no such thing as a blue collar Anglo Protestant anymore, at least one that votes in the Dem primary.

Exit polls, past Montana primaries (if memory serves)...unfortunately it's rare we see break-down by religion AND income with a low MoE.

But there is a big working-class Catholic union machine in Butte/Anaconda.  It's why that area is still Democratic.

But...dudes...Missoula, and the interior west rural vote.  I really think that Montana is fertile Obama country.

I guess it might depend on places like Great Falls.

[Torie]

What supports your thesis that blue collar Catholics are more hostile to Obama than blue collar Anglo Protestants?  Or is it that outside the South, there is no such thing as a blue collar Anglo Protestant anymore, at least one that votes in the Dem primary.

Exit polls, past Montana primaries (if memory serves)...unfortunately it's rare we see break-down by religion AND income with a low MoE.

But there is a big working-class Catholic union machine in Butte/Anaconda.  It's why that area is still Democratic.



But...dudes...Missoula, and the interior west rural vote.  I really think that Montana is fertile Obama country.

I guess it might depend on places like Great Falls.

Color me skeptical. I think it is more SES based, and to some extent that correlates with faith north of the Mason Dixon line.

[Alcon]

SES?  Socioeconomic status?

Maybe, but Montana is pretty much dominated by universally working-class areas.  There's not really all that much of a working-class sentiment in the Democratic Party, at least not in a way I think will benefit Clinton over Obama.  I know we only have caucuses for the rest of the interior west, but it's not unprecedented.  Idaho and Montana are not all that different.

A Montana caucus would be Obama landslide; a primary might be different, but I doubt it would be that different.

[Sam Spade]

Hey look, folks... I was merely positing the question, because I am, as of yet, quite unsure how these type of places would vote in a primary (as opposed to a caucus).  We don't have much comparable info.

I am sure Al will chime in soon enough - this is his type of territory, anyways.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

See Utah. It's a primary.

[Torie]

SES?  Socioeconomic status?

Maybe, but Montana is pretty much dominated by universally working-class areas.  There's not really all that much of a working-class sentiment in the Democratic Party, at least not in a way I think will benefit Clinton over Obama.  I know we only have caucuses for the rest of the interior west, but it's not unprecedented.  Idaho and Montana are not all that different.

A Montana caucus would be Obama landslide; a primary might be different, but I doubt it would be that different.

You are not going to bootstrap off on Montana, a rather idiosyncratic state, as some persuasive tea leaf supporting the thesis that lower income north of the Mason Dixon line Catholics are hostile to Obama considerably more than lower income Anglo Protestants are you? 

By the way, if one is serious about this, one needs to look at county by county numbers, and compare them to percentage religious adherents. In Iowa, albeit a caucus state, it looks to me that Obama did better in Catholic counties overall than WASP ones. Heck, he carried Dubuque, and that is at once lower SES (lots of bowling alleys per capita, and that is a leading indicator), and heavily Catholic.

[Sam Spade]

See Utah. It's a primary.

The only Dems I know of in Utah are upper-income non-Mormons or college kids.  I'll be happily enlightened if I've missed anyone.  If not, then it's not a good comparison for Obamaites.

[MarkWarner08]

See Utah. It's a primary.

The only Dems I know of in Utah are upper-income non-Mormons or college kids.  I'll be happily enlightened if I've missed anyone.  If not, then it's not a good comparison for Obamaites.

What about Latinos? Isn't there a burgeoning immigrant population in UT?

[Torie]

See Utah. It's a primary.

The only Dems I know of in Utah are upper-income non-Mormons or college kids.  I'll be happily enlightened if I've missed anyone.  If not, then it's not a good comparison for Obamaites.

It appears to me that in Utah, if you are a gentile, you are a Dem. I guess in Utah I would be a Dem. That is what happens when you feel like you are an oppressed minority. You go to the dark side.

[Sam Spade]

See Utah. It's a primary.

The only Dems I know of in Utah are upper-income non-Mormons or college kids.  I'll be happily enlightened if I've missed anyone.  If not, then it's not a good comparison for Obamaites.

What about Latinos? Isn't there a burgeoning immigrant population in UT?

Still small, but yes, you're right.  I missed that, thanks.

[Alcon]

You are not going to bootstrap off on Montana

Eh?  No.  I don't claim to predict primaries and caucuses all so well; nobody should.  The best we can do is throw around ideas for fun.

a rather idiosyncratic state

I've never found Montana to be a terribly idiosyncratic state.  It's hard to predict mostly because it doesn't perfectly correlate with a heavily-polled state.  It's more rural and conservative than Colorado, less religious than Idaho, and...not the Dakotas.

(Can you tell I haven't had a good night of sleep in a week?)

But, all things considered, it's rare that it delivers a "wtf?" result.  Very rare.

as some persuasive tea leaf supporting the thesis that lower income north of the Mason Dixon line Catholics are hostile to Obama considerably more than lower income Anglo Protestants are you?

You're right that I don't have any real conclusive proof of that whatsoever.  I don't have any data that would give me such proof.  I was wrong to make that statement.

But Clinton has consistently performed best in working-class, white union machine counties, which happen to generally be Catholic in Montana.

[MarkWarner08]

That is what happens when you feel like you are an oppressed minority. You go to the dark side.

Which explains why Cubans still vote Republican.

[Torie]

I didn't mean to give you a rough time Alcon, but I added inter alia Dubuque to the pile for our consideration to my prior post in an edit, just to twist the knife a bit more, or something.

You DID make an interesting assertion, that I had not previously considered, and that got my synapses going, and I like that.

[Torie]

That is what happens when you feel like you are an oppressed minority. You go to the dark side.

Which explains why Cubans still vote Republican.

Cubans were oppressed by liberals in Miami and environs. That would drive anyone towards the light of reason.   And then they took over, and become bourgeoise (sp, I can never spell that word right), and were not oppressed at all. Cheers.

[Alcon]

I didn't mean to give you a rough time Alcon, but I added inter alia Dubuque to the pile for our consideration to my prior post in an edit, just to twist the knife a bit more, or something.

That sentence is either way far too intelligent or far too British for this hour.

I can't speak to Dubuque, but the Iowa Caucus results were a strange beast as a whole.

Maybe someone else who is more familiar with Iowa can explain it.  Maybe it all boils down to a Democratic machine or the absence thereof.

You DID make an interesting assertion, that I had not previously considered, and that got my synapses going, and I like that.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

What state is across the river from Dubuque? Now take that into account when determining who had the strongest GOTV operation and most volunteers.