What is Hillary's strategy now?

[Aizen]

Or what should she do? Is she going to pull the Giuliani strategy and plop her ass in Texas while Obama racks up wins or is she going to try to stop Obama somewhere (Wisconsin). If I were Hillary, I would focus on Wisconsin to try and stem the bleeding

[Gabu]

Try to cut down in Obama's margins in Maryland and Virginia, try to win Wisconsin, and then try to win everything but Vermont in March's Semi-Super Tuesday.

If she fails on all three counts, she's toast.  If not, she's still in this.

[Trilobyte]

Wisconsin is not really a Clinton-friendly state though. I'm not sure if it's worth allocating limited resources into a state that will likely go for Obama anyway.

[Gabu]

Wisconsin is not really a Clinton-friendly state though. Il'm not sure if it's worth allocating limited resources into a state that will likely go for Obama anyway.

If she loses every single state to come in February, she's going to be looking pretty bad as March approaches.  I'm not sure she can afford not to try to win Wisconsin.

[Gabu]

Also, Wisconsin is a primary, which is good for Clinton.

[Trilobyte]

Also, Wisconsin is a primary, which is good for Clinton.

That's true. I guess she can at least hope to keep things close. What's the best-case scenario for Clinton between now and March 4?

[gmo]

The Clinton campaign is already crying underdog in Wisconsin, which I think is questionable.  There is already news talk that OH/TX/PA are what Clinton is waiting on.  If they do win Wisconsin I think that offsets a lot of the power of Obama sweeping everything else in February.  I think Clinton can survive 0-fer-Feb, but a WI win means they can cite some momentum going into Mar4 which definitely should favor her.

On the other hand they may concede February and welcome the talk of being the new underdog in hopes of (supposedly shockingly) flipping the script on Mar4 and bolting ahead at that point.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Also, Wisconsin is a primary, which is good for Clinton.

Yes, but there's likely going to be very high turnout in Madison. I bet most students at the University of Wisconsin will vote at least once. We can also suspect some strangely high turnout in the areas of Milwaukee with lots of homeless, and probably in cemeteries too. Oh, and if you're a Clinton supporter who plans on doing GOTV, you might want to get your tires insured beforehand. Just a tip.

[TheresNoMoney]

I really like Obama's chances in Wisconsin. He will win big in Milwaukee and Madison, and he should also perform well in the most rural areas.

Hell, this is the state that elected Russ Feingold in a huge upset in 1992 and have re-elected him twice since then! I have faith in Wisconsin.

[Lief 🗽]

Also, Wisconsin is a primary, which is good for Clinton.

Yes, but there's likely going to be very high turnout in Madison. I bet most students at the University of Wisconsin will vote at least once. We can also suspect some strangely high turnout in the areas of Milwaukee with lots of homeless, and probably in cemeteries too. Oh, and if you're a Clinton supporter who plans on doing GOTV, you might want to get your tires insured beforehand. Just a tip.

I wasn't aware that the establishment was behind Obama in Wisconsin.

[Gabu]

Also, Wisconsin is a primary, which is good for Clinton.

That's true. I guess she can at least hope to keep things close. What's the best-case scenario for Clinton between now and March 4?

Some people have said in the past that Clinton could win Virginia, but polls (though they have shown themselves to be unreliable in the past) make that seem unlikely.  I'd say that the absolute best would be for her to get in the low to mid 40s in Maryland and Virginia, win Wisconsin, and then dominate Obama in Texas and Ohio.  That would ensure that Obama wouldn't be able to win outright.

Also, Wisconsin is a primary, which is good for Clinton.

Yes, but there's likely going to be very high turnout in Madison. I bet most students at the University of Wisconsin will vote at least once. We can also suspect some strangely high turnout in the areas of Milwaukee with lots of homeless, and probably in cemeteries too. Oh, and if you're a Clinton supporter who plans on doing GOTV, you might want to get your tires insured beforehand. Just a tip.

Not saying that Clinton has it in the bag by any means, only that it's her best bet for a win between now and March.

[Keystone Phil]

She needs to make this all about Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. It's better than Rudy's strategy because it focuses on three big states that have important elements of the Dem base (seniors in PA, Hispanics in TX and union members in OH), not one.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Also, Wisconsin is a primary, which is good for Clinton.

Yes, but there's likely going to be very high turnout in Madison. I bet most students at the University of Wisconsin will vote at least once. We can also suspect some strangely high turnout in the areas of Milwaukee with lots of homeless, and probably in cemeteries too. Oh, and if you're a Clinton supporter who plans on doing GOTV, you might want to get your tires insured beforehand. Just a tip.

I wasn't aware that the establishment was behind Obama in Wisconsin.

They should be in Madison and Milwaukee, which usually have "interesting" things happening during elections.

Actually that high turnout in Madison might be offset a bit by the ballots cast for Clinton which mysteriously disappear after being cast.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Also Gwen Moore has endorsed Obama and she's basically Milwaukee-machine owned to a T. I think her son was convicted of slashing the tires on cars owned by Republicans.

[Keystone Phil]

I think her son was convicted of slashing the tires on cars owned by Republicans.

Oh, cool! He must be awesome, right? Oh, and he's probably not corrupt because corrupt blacks don't support Obama, just Hillary.

[ilikeverin]

I think Hillary will win Wisconsin; it's rather like Ohio, IMO.

[Sarnstrom]

I think Obama will win Wisconsin. He will get large margins in Dane and Milwaukee counties. Plus Governor Doyle is campaigning across the state for him and he has the endorsement of Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, Congresswoman Gwen Moore and Congressman Dave Obey. Wisconsin is a dovish state and Clinton's vote for war will hurt her here too.

[exopolitician]

Honestly, IF [big if]...Hillary doesnt win Wisconsin, Maryland, DC, and Virginia in the coming days....people are going to start getting turned off. Normal voters are going to start thinking Clinton isnt winnable anymore, if shes losing to someone in her own party how could she win against a Republican in November. They arent going to sit in their homes and think of what the demographics in Texas and Ohio look like and calculate how many delegates can be awarded to each candidate. People used to think Clinton was unstoppable, and a straight loss of some 8 states is NOT going to look good at all.

This is my take on it though, it probably could be wrong tho.

[หมูเด้ง]

Honestly, IF [big if]...Hillary doesnt win Wisconsin, Maryland, DC, and Virginia in the coming days....people are going to start getting turned off. Normal voters are going to start thinking Clinton isnt winnable anymore, if shes losing to someone in her own party how could she win against a Republican in November. They arent going to sit in their homes and think of what the demographics in Texas and Ohio look like and calculate how many delegates can be awarded to each candidate. People used to think Clinton was unstoppable, and a straight loss of some 8 states is NOT going to look good at all.

This is my take on it though, it probably could be wrong tho.

Yeah, I am begining to think the same thing. Just look what losing a string of primaries did to the GOP frontrunner.

[perdedor]

Clinton's strategy probably consists of crying her eyes out every chance she gets.

[MarkWarner08]

She needs to make this all about Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. It's better than Rudy's strategy because it focuses on three big states that have important elements of the Dem base (seniors in PA, Hispanics in TX and union members in OH), not one.

Exactly. If she wins in TX and OH, she'll be one big win (read: PA) away from securing the nomination.  Obama's campaign must stop her on March 4th...

[Sam Spade]

She needs to make this all about Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. It's better than Rudy's strategy because it focuses on three big states that have important elements of the Dem base (seniors in PA, Hispanics in TX and union members in OH), not one.

Exactly. If she wins in TX and OH, she'll be one big win (read: PA) away from securing the nomination.  Obama's campaign must stop her on March 4th...

I tend to agree, although a win or a draw in Wisconsin would be helpful for her (but not necessary).  But TX and OH are the keys.

Looking back now, with hindsight 20-20, it now becomes clear how the shape of this nomination was/is meant to be:

Obama was/is given three chances to take down Hillary.  The first was in New Hampshire.  The second was in California (or maybe Massachusetts would have done the same thing - I doubt it).  The third will be in Texas/Ohio.  I simply think the fourth chance - PA - is something he can only win by accomplishing chance #3.

That's all - food for thought.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

She needs to make this all about Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. It's better than Rudy's strategy because it focuses on three big states that have important elements of the Dem base (seniors in PA, Hispanics in TX and union members in OH), not one.

Exactly. If she wins in TX and OH, she'll be one big win (read: PA) away from securing the nomination.  Obama's campaign must stop her on March 4th...

If Obama doesn't lose those by that many delegates, he doesn't need any of them.

[Sam Spade]

She needs to make this all about Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. It's better than Rudy's strategy because it focuses on three big states that have important elements of the Dem base (seniors in PA, Hispanics in TX and union members in OH), not one.

Exactly. If she wins in TX and OH, she'll be one big win (read: PA) away from securing the nomination.  Obama's campaign must stop her on March 4th...

If Obama doesn't lose those by that many delegates, he doesn't need any of them.

As I mentioned on another thread - the rest of the map post-March 4 is not favorable either.

He will surely perform badly in Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia.  He'll probably win Oregon, but not by that much, as it is a primary.  Both Montana and South Dakota are primaries and Montana historically has a strong industrial presence (oddly).  North Carolina is a lot of delegates, but I suspect will be an ugly looking toss-up.

On the plus side, he'll only have Vermont, Wyoming (caucus) and Mississippi.

And then there's Puerto Rico. (which counts almost as much as the above 3 states)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Clinton needs to get a win before March 4 - ideally something big like WI (especially given its neighbour status to IL). If Obama keeps winning by these margins I can see her lead in OH crumble and a lot people being turned off - especially if she pulls a Giuliani and only goes to TX and OH. She needs to show she's making an effort. But March also has WV, KY and IN which should all lean Clinton (not sure about IN though).

If she doesn't win anything by the end of February, many voices will be questioning the wisdom of her continuing.... including mine. But if she somehow does badly on March 4 (ie only TX) then it's time to go.