Barone: Puerto Rico will crown Hillary

[MarkWarner08]

The latest in The Economist's series of podcasts about American Politics featured a 15 minute interview with famed political pundit Michael Barone. Beyond breaking down the general election (he gives McCain a strong edge) and discussing the results of the Democratic primaries, he makes a bold prediction. Puerto Rico's June primary will decide the Democratic nomination. Since PR is full of Hispanics, many of whom have very positive impressions of the Clinton family, Hillary could win a strong majority of delegates there. He argues that Clinton delegate margin in PR could surpass her net gain in CA, a stunning feat for an area that isn't even a state.

Is this possible? Will Democrats let the battle drag into June. If they do, will a non-state decide who will represent the Democratic Party in the general election?

[Reaganfan]

I sure hope they battle into June...HELL...I hope they battle into August!

[Flying Dog]

no.

[Tender Branson]

A lot can happen between now and June. Obama could be knocked out in Texas and by 20 points while simultaneously losing Ohio and Rhode Island by 10%. Clinton could be halted by a strong enough February-momentum by Obama. Puerto Rico crowning Hillary is just another possibility with both having around 2000 delegates by then, but Obama should get at least 30% in PR as well. It would be horrible though if Puerto Ricans, who can´t even vote in the General Election, would decide the Democratic nomination. Just as horrible as super-delegates and previously irrelevant Michigan or Florida deciding the convention.

[Democratic Hawk]

I sure hope they battle into June...HELL...I hope they battle into August!

McCain is going to have enough problems of his own considering that the Republicans will have a nominee, for whom many of those who define themselves as 'very conservative', simply, is not tolerable

Furthermore, Democrats seem very energised right now, just look at their primary/caucus turnouts for start. If such enthusiasm holds through to November the Republicans have big problems

Republicans must, surely, be praying for Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination (and that is far from the inevitability it once was) because she'll unite conservatives better than McCain can, as well as being less likely than Obama to bring in crucial Independents, who will decide the election

Still the sooner the Democrats have a winner the better but they need to think very carefully about which candidate will be best positioned against McCain going through February and beyond

Should, as Barone suggests, that the Democratic nomination be determined in Puerto Rico then, IMO, it will be a farce

I wouldn't count your chickens just yet, Mike. I'm not

Dave

[8 out of 11 is not deserved]

I believe that PR has a history of assigning 100% of delegates to 1 candidate. 

My guess would be that's because the nomination is generally a lock up by the time they have their primary.

If they went with history that would be difficult hit for Obama 

[gmo]

I believe that PR has a history of assigning 100% of delegates to 1 candidate. 

My guess would be that's because the nomination is generally a lock up by the time they have their primary.

I have heard that happens because of political maneuvering led by the PR governor.  Your explanation and mine need not completely exclude each other.  No idea what to believe.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I believe that PR has a history of assigning 100% of delegates to 1 candidate. 

My guess would be that's because the nomination is generally a lock up by the time they have their primary.

If they went with history that would be difficult hit for Obama 

It's proportional. For some reason the district delegates don't add up right.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/PR-D.phtml

[Torie]

Barone didn't quite say in his written article that Puerto Rico would be the one, and it is not clear to me that Clinton would get all the delegates given proportional allocations. It might come down to deal making.

[หมูเด้ง]

Barone ALWAYS believes that the Republicans are on the verge of wiping the Democrats out. He's another GOP hack.