Clinton's Done (Kind of)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If you want to get a pulse on what Clinton supporters are thinking, this blog is mainly Clinton supporters. There are a couple of Obama supporters, though.

http://www.mydd.com/

[gmo]

...not to the point that they are gray...   

Meat-rascist!  At least you did not say you like your steaks "pimped-out".

It seems from Intrade that a lot of people think Obamentum is going to bury Clinton.  I agree with the notion that Clinton's support is solid enough in OH/TX/PA that a good Obama February does not cause all the dominoes to fall in his direction (what kind of mixed metaphor is that?).

[bgwah]

You can never count out Hillary Clinton.

^^^^

Although her "WAIT UNTIL BIG STATES THAT I SHOULD DO WELL IN" strategy sounds very Rudyesque---but then again, she is a much better campaigner than Rudy, so perhaps she can make it work.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If you want to get a pulse on what Clinton supporters are thinking, this blog is mainly Clinton supporters. There are a couple of Obama supporters, though.

http://www.mydd.com/

It seems to me that MyDD attempts to keep their official blog posts as even as possible. It's some of the Clinton supporters' posts that are ridiculous.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If you want to get a pulse on what Clinton supporters are thinking, this blog is mainly Clinton supporters. There are a couple of Obama supporters, though.

http://www.mydd.com/

It seems to me that MyDD attempts to keep their official blog posts as even as possible. It's some of the Clinton supporters' posts that are ridiculous.

Yeah, it's funny because DailyKos is overwhelmingly Obama supporters. The Clinton supporters seem to be a very vocal minority there, though.

[Gabu]

If there's one thing that people ought to have learned by now, it is to never, never call a Clinton "done" until the hard results are in.

[Ogre Mage]

Nothing is done until the fat lady sings in Texas and Ohio.  If Hillary can win at least one of these states the race will continue, although she will be greatly weakened.  If she wins both then I would argue she has the advantage.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Nothing is done until the fat lady sings in Texas and Ohio.  If Hillary can win at least one of these states the race will continue, although she will be greatly weakened.  If she wins both then I would argue she has the advantage.

She needs both. She'll be down at least 100 pledged delegates going into them.

[True Democrat]

Bump, for new perspectives after the Potomac Primary.

[Kalimantan]

As an Obama supporter, I still think this will go Clinton's way if she wins the states she's expected to.

Quick math - for pledged delegates only Obama leads by about 20. In the remaining states that are favorable to Obama - HI, OR, SD, MT, WY, VT, VA, DC, MD, NC, MS and Democrats Abroad there are 457 pledged delegates available. In the states favorable to Clinton - WV, KY, TX, OH, PA, RI and Puerto Rico there are 651 pledged delegates available. The other four contests I can't predict or could be tied - ME, IN, WI and Guam - there are 174 pledged delegates available. Even if they all go in the Obama column that only makes 631 pledged delegates for him.

Obviously these are all proportioznal contests, but assuming that the Obama states break to him in the same proportion that the Clinton states break to her, she will get 20 or so more pledged delegates, wiping out his lead and probably handing her the nomination, especially when MI and FL are handed to her (!). A big win in PA, TX or OH will make it easier for her, as will keeping it close in NC (the next biggest prize) or VA.

Obama has to win (or at least tie) the biggies on March 4th to get the nomination.

So the key part is "assuming that the Obama states break to him in the same proportion that the Clinton states break to her" - which now seems unlikely

[John Dibble]

Nothing is done until the fat lady sings in Texas and Ohio.  If Hillary can win at least one of these states the race will continue, although she will be greatly weakened.  If she wins both then I would argue she has the advantage.

She needs both. She'll be down at least 100 pledged delegates going into them.

Agreed. She's counting on winning both and by at least 10% margins in each.

[Michael Z]

Obama clearly has the momentum, and the media are currently labelling him the "clear frontrunner", but I remember the knock in the teeth that was New Hampshire, so I'm reserving any judgment (and celebrations) until after the Texas and Ohio primaries. Nothing is certain until then.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I've learned from the New Hampshire primary not to underestimate Hillary.  When she loses Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas... then I'll say she's done. 

Amen.

[Gustaf]

I'd like more polls out of Ohio and Texas. Wisconsin will also be interesting.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Hillary?  Done?

Not yet she's not.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, just wait until PA, my friends. Just wait. What a glorious day it shall be. I'd be absolutely thrilled if PA was the state to pretty much give her the nomination.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Oh, just wait until PA, my friends. Just wait. What a glorious day it shall be. I'd be absolutely thrilled if PA was the state to pretty much give her the nomination.

She won't win it by enough to win enough delegates to make up her deficit. See all previous delegate calculations.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, just wait until PA, my friends. Just wait. What a glorious day it shall be. I'd be absolutely thrilled if PA was the state to pretty much give her the nomination.

She won't win it by enough to win enough delegates to make up her deficit. See all previous delegate calculations.

What would be enough because she should win here comfortably.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Well just to cancel out the results from yesterday would require her to win almost 2/3, and she could easily fall behind another 10-15 delegates after Wisconsin.

Even if she gets 60% (which would make it her best state after Arkansas), that's around 30 more delegates than Obama, which certainly is a lot but not even close to cancelling out Obama's lead in every contest after Super Tuesday.