Clinton's Done (Kind of)

[True Democrat]

Even as a Clinton supporter (in the primary at least), I have to admit I have this feeling that Clinton is done.  The momentum Obama can, and probably will, receive from the February primaries and caucuses will be huge, and I think he might even win some of the states Clinton is supposed to win on March 4.  Of course, nothing is predictable in this race, but this is just the feeling I have.

Does anyone else (without being extremely biased towards Obama) share this feeling?

[7,052,770]

As a neutral in this race, I'm am leaning toward endorsing Obama and hoping that we all rally around our nominee soon.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does anyone else (without being extremely biased towards Obama) share this feeling?

No. Momentum is over-rated (understandably so o/c). This one won't be over for a while yet.

[8 out of 11 is not deserved]

I'm not sure I qualify extremely biased towards Obama.  I'm a moderate Republican supporting McCain from my party.  But I can and will likely vote for Obama.  I will not vote for Clinton, so maybe I have an extreme bias against Hillary.

My view is that Hillary is going to lose.  I didn't believe that until recently.  The belief is based upon what Obama has done in the primaries so far.  Given her name recognization and stature in the party, she isn't the strongest candidate

[Eleden]

Even as a Clinton supporter (in the primary at least), I have to admit I have this feeling that Clinton is done.  The momentum Obama can, and probably will, receive from the February primaries and caucuses will be huge, and I think he might even win some of the states Clinton is supposed to win on March 4.  Of course, nothing is predictable in this race, but this is just the feeling I have.

Does anyone else (without being extremely biased towards Obama) share this feeling?

I've learned from the New Hampshire primary not to underestimate Hillary.  When she loses Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas... then I'll say she's done. 

[agcatter]

I disagree that Hillary is done.  Lunch pail blue collar types that make up the bulk of the Democratic Party in Ohio and Pennsylvania will not vote for a black.  Those northern type Democrats voted in large numbers for Wallace in 1968.  They will never vote for a black.  Hillary holds those two states.  Texas will be 20% Hispanic plus the less educated whites in the texas Democratic Party will deliver Texas to Clinton.

Coupled with that you have Hillary's ace in the hole -- seating the Michigan and Florida delegations if needed.  Gives her 80 or 90 extra delegates.  Don't underestimate the Clintons.  They will do what is necessary to win.  Count on it.

[Sam Spade]

Does anyone else (without being extremely biased towards Obama) share this feeling?

No. Momentum is over-rated (understandably so o/c). This one won't be over for a while yet.

^^^^^^^^^^

[motomonkey]

I am really neutral on this, even have slighlty leaned toward Obama in the past.  But, no, I do not think Clinton is done.  It is a tight race, a close race and it is easy to see how either could prevail.

The momentum is all in favor of Obama right now.  That will likely continue through the "Potamac Primaries."  But after that, Clinton could resurge.  Ohio and Texas have demographics that lean in Clintons favor (Hispanics, poor whites, and older Democrats).  

 Clinton needs to change her strategy.  She has allowed the race to be defined by her opponent.  This "ready day one" line is completely inferior to "change."

In my opinion, she should focus on specific policy, the more detailed the conversation gets, the better she can display her superior knowledge, her better understanding of how political objectives get put into policy.  

She should completely embrace Obama's flowery, flowing rhetoric and agree with everything he says "Directionally."  Then point out how much easier it is to say what we want to do than it is to know how to get it done. "  Everybody wants to "cure cancer" but no one knows how to do it.

Virtually all Democrats agree on the direction on issues such as Iraq, Health Care, Education, Labor, even the economy.  The challenge is to make those directional goals a reality.  

My advice to her would be to quit differentiating.  Show that she shares the same idealism as he does.  Show clips of her "youthful idealism" when she was the same age as Barak Obama.  Even illustrate with her failed first attempt at health care reform.  She needs to communicate, "Idealism and Pragmatism are not mutually exclusive."  

The difference is that Idealism without the know-how to turn those ideas in law, without the understanding of how great ideas get defeated by enemies of change will not produce the results we envision.  

I also think she should elevate the contrast between hyper sensitivity on the race issue and complete insensitivity on the sexism issue.  I read a article that contrasted the tolerance the media and pundit had on the "Iron my shirt" heckler with a hypothetical heckler who might have said to Obama, "Shine my shoes."  The writer correctly envisioned the outrage the latter would have provoked nationwide and compared to the non-outrage the sexist heckler comment received.

Its not over.  

[WalterMitty]

lolz @ this thread.

the voters of texas and ohio probably dont give a flying flip if obama won nebraska on feb, 9.

after all, the voters of nh didnt seem to care that obama won iowa!    oooo.  low blow.

[TheresNoMoney]

Does anyone else (without being extremely biased towards Obama) share this feeling?

No, I still think the three most important upcoming states are Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Clinton is favored in all three and I don't think Obama will gain too much traction in those states.

[WalterMitty]

on a related note, obama reminds me of bob the builder.

my son watches that show all the time.

'can we build it?  yes we can!"

seriously.  how can i be inspired by someone who tooks his tag line from a cartoon?

[Erc]

There aren't enough delegates left for 'momentum' to matter in the same way it can in January.

Winning strings of states this month is going to help Obama, sure (he'll have an unambiguous lead in pledged delegates, at least)...but Clinton's still going to win Texas (and Rhode Island) come hell or high water.  And Wisconsin and Ohio are tossups (at worst).

Obama's strategy is (and should be)...get a very healthy lead in pledged delegates (>100), and try to paint Clinton's efforts to win via superdelegates as desperate / undemocratic / etc.  And a Gore endorsement wouldn't hurt.

[Kalimantan]

As an Obama supporter, I still think this will go Clinton's way if she wins the states she's expected to.

Quick math - for pledged delegates only Obama leads by about 20. In the remaining states that are favorable to Obama - HI, OR, SD, MT, WY, VT, VA, DC, MD, NC, MS and Democrats Abroad there are 457 pledged delegates available. In the states favorable to Clinton - WV, KY, TX, OH, PA, RI and Puerto Rico there are 651 pledged delegates available. The other four contests I can't predict or could be tied - ME, IN, WI and Guam - there are 174 pledged delegates available. Even if they all go in the Obama column that only makes 631 pledged delegates for him.

Obviously these are all proportioznal contests, but assuming that the Obama states break to him in the same proportion that the Clinton states break to her, she will get 20 or so more pledged delegates, wiping out his lead and probably handing her the nomination, especially when MI and FL are handed to her (!). A big win in PA, TX or OH will make it easier for her, as will keeping it close in NC (the next biggest prize) or VA.

Obama has to win (or at least tie) the biggies on March 4th to get the nomination.

[ilikeverin]

You can never count out Hillary Clinton.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

on a related note, obama reminds me of bob the builder.

my son watches that show all the time.

'can we build it?  yes we can!"

seriously.  how can i be inspired by someone who tooks his tag line from a cartoon?

It's better than your son crying all the time like Hillary is doing?

[Ben.]

She’s not done… not by any means (let not forget NH).

What is a very serious problem for Clinton her campaign is they seem disorientated, the nomination was meant to be locked by now but instead they have fond themselves in a tight, competitive fight … to quote Lincoln their “like a Duck hit on the head”.

And this is fight they have no real strategy to deal with, looking to TX and OH to provide them with the critical delegate edge and holding their electoral breath through the rest of February is at the very best risky and at worst unrealistic.

The surprise win in NH may have been the worst thing that could have happened to Clinton because it delayed any effort to seriously retool her campaign with many deeming Iowa an aberration and reverting to type through NV, SC and into Super Tuesday… but with that approach having failed to deliver the expected results now could be too late to change the strategy. 

So, Clinton is in a very tough predicament… but then again so is Obama, expectations for him are high and he needs to be able to at the very least meet them, if he does as well as is expected through Feb then he could be very strong going into March 4th while Clinton could be considerably weakened.     

[MarkWarner08]

Hillary Clinton is done if she loses Texas and Ohio. Unless that happens, she remains the favorite in this race.

[J. J.]

Hillary Clinton is done if she loses Texas and Ohio. Unless that happens, she remains the favorite in this race.

I'll toss PA into the mix.

[Хahar 🤔]

Hillary Clinton is done if she loses Texas and Ohio. Unless that happens, she remains the favorite in this race.

I'll toss PA into the mix.

I think, due to its lateness, PA decides the nomination.

[big bad fab]

No, she will fight back in Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana. And she will insist to count Florida and Michigan results.
Anyway, she won't be trounced in Virginia, Maryland, Wisconsin, Oregon and North Carolina (and may win Rhode Island) and will gain delegates.

And if she can't, she'll try to make Obama lose as, after one term of McCain, she'll be the Messiah for Dems in 2012.

She thinks the presidency belong to her by rights. She has prepared for this for 15 years at least, and probably twice more.

[MarkWarner08]

Hillary Clinton is done if she loses Texas and Ohio. Unless that happens, she remains the favorite in this race.

I'll toss PA into the mix.

What if she loses all the primaries on Mar 4th?  In that hypothetical scenario, she will have lost in the most heavily Catholic state in America and two states where she has a strong support from the establishment. I can't see her surviving such a devastating loss.

My prediction is that she'll win TX and OH and lock up the nomination with a big win in PA.

[Flying Dog]

If Obama keeps racking up delegates throughout February it'll become very hard for Hillary to make up the margin in Texas and Ohio. Obama winning one win doesn't yield much in the way of momentum, but 6 or 7 wins in a row does change the dynamics of the race. People like to be associated with winners, not losers. Unless she wins big in Ohio and Texas (60%+) the math isn't on her side.

[tik 🪀✨]

If Obama keeps racking up delegates throughout February it'll become very hard for Hillary to make up the margin in Texas and Ohio. Obama winning one win doesn't yield much in the way of momentum, but 6 or 7 wins in a row does change the dynamics of the race. People like to be associated with winners, not losers. Unless she wins big in Ohio and Texas (60%+) the math isn't on her side.

Clinton seems to be the favourite in Ohio currently. You cannot call her done till she's burnt to a crisp and hardly recognizable.. at this point she and Obama are both medium rare, but Obama is marinating in the sweet sauce of hope. The voters will have to slice a little into the meat to see if Clinton's still pink inside, and if so, she might still be delicious.

And if anyone could please explain to me what it is that I just said, I'd appreciate it.

[exopolitician]

Apparently Clinton just fired her Campaign Advisor. Not much else coming out about it though....so thats all I know.

[Frodo]

Clinton seems to be the favourite in Ohio currently. You cannot call her done till she's burnt to a crisp and hardly recognizable.. at this point she and Obama are both medium rare, but Obama is marinating in the sweet sauce of hope. The voters will have to slice a little into the meat to see if Clinton's still pink inside, and if so, she might still be delicious.

And if anyone could please explain to me what it is that I just said, I'd appreciate it.

I like my steaks well-done, but not to the point that they are gray and dry.