Analysis of Texas State Senate Districts...

[Sam Spade]

Since Texas allocates 126 of its 228 delegates by primary (67 are elected through the state convention by precinct meetings - the caucus angle), and these are allocated by Senate district, it is important to analyze these districts, because they differ from the CDs in many respects.

So, I'm going to lay out a long-term project about the SDs and what I know about them.  This may take a few days, however.
SD#1 - 4 delegates (Northeast Texas - large cities include Texarkana, Longview, Marshall, most of Tyler)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist1_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 74.15%, Black 17.47%, Hispanic - 6.93%, Other - 1.45%
Observations
- Used to be strongly Democratic back in the day. 
- Many traces still exist on the local level - especially in the State House.  Bill Clinton performed quite well here in 1996, he may have won it, but I'm not doing the math.
- About half-urban, half-rural.  Urban is primarily towns of 100,000 or less.
- East Texas racial voting caveats apply.
- Closest district to Arkansas.
Early Observation:  Safe Clinton
SD#2 - 4 delegates (East Dallas suburbs, Greenville and Sulphur Springs, some of Tyler)

http://www.fyi.legis.state.tx.us/reports/senate/dist2/r8.htm

Population: White - 68.90%, Black 13.35%, Hispanic 14.72%, Other 3.03%
Observations
- Has its rural parts (about a quarter), but the suburban growth of Dallas fundamentally changed this district.  The Tyler part is the black part of Tyler.
- Its residents are much higher income than they used to be - the danger is that those changes are new, and they still possess strong redneck roots.
- Dallas County is roughly half the SD.  Now this area is still pretty strongly Republican, but it has been moving left slowly.  Most of the replacements in these areas are Hispanics.  The question will be:  Who crosses over?
Early Observation:  Lean Clinton
SD#3 - 4 delegates (Lufkin, Nacogdoches, northern half of Montgomery County/most of Conroe)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist3_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 75.75%, Black - 12.99%, Hispanic 9.89%, Other 1.37%
Observations
- In general, see SD#1.
- The Montgomery County section is the less developed section of that County - lots of exurbs, some still rural areas, especially northwest and northeast of Conroe.  Fast growing...
- East Texas racial voting caveats definitely apply here (yes, MontCo too).
Early Observation:  Safe Clinton
SD#4 - 4 delegates (South Montgomery County, far NE Harris County, Beaumont, Orange)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist4_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 75.34%, Black - 13.49%, Hispanic - 8.71%, Other - 2.46%
Observations
- Most of this area used to be highly Democratic - Beaumont area still is.
- In general, the separation of Beaumont from Port Arthur and Galveston really, really hurts Obama because it separates the blacks there (I can't tell you how much this hurts)
- The Woodlands and Kingwood are upper-income, hyper-Republican hotbeds.  Kingwood is more professional than the Woodlands, but that redneck element still exists in both places.  The rest of the Harris/Montgomery County areas might as well be considered east Texas.
- In the rest of the SD, east Texas racial voting caveats apply.
Early Observation:  Safe Clinton
SD#5 - 4 delegates (Williamson County, Bryan/College Station, Huntsville)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist5_Map.pdf

Population: White - 68.93%, Black 12.34%, Hispanic - 15.76%, Other - 2.97%
Observations
- The Austin suburbs and Bryan/College Station dominate this SD.
- Bryan/College Station is where Texas A&M is located.  More conservative than UT, but still a university
- Although the Austin suburbs are Republican suburbs, they are professional class (usually) and will likely vote for Obama over Hillary, if not in great numbers. (compare to east Dallas/Houston suburbs)
- The rest of the SD (except Huntsville) is rural and will be predisposed against Obama, but I doubt it overcomes his share of the vote in these other areas.
Early Observation:  Lean Obama

[Sam Spade]

SD#6 - 3 delegates (Harris County - East Houston, parts of Pasadena, Baytown, Galena Park)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist6_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 17.92%, Black - 9.94%, Hispanic - 70.54%, Other - 2.60%
Observations
- This is the SD where is was born and grew up in!!!
- An obvious Hispanic gerrymander. (and I mean obvious)
- The whites in this SD are the subtle racist ones I talk about that populate areas of Harris County.  They tend to also be older - some indeed are ethnic whites! (go figure)
- I wouldn't be surprised if this population votes somewhere between 3-1/4-1 Dem primary.
Early Prediction:  Safe Clinton
SD#7 - 3 delegates (Harris County - West Houston, Tomball, Jersey Village, Spring Branch)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist7_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 70.06%, Black - 6.87%, Hispanic - 16.28%, Other - 6.85%
Observations
- A lot of right-wing Republicans in this SD.  The rich professional suburbanites live in the areas closest to Houston (especially Spring Branch, the white area in the middle of the pink).  Ironically, these are perhaps the most Republican areas.
- The rest of Harris County (the rest of the white area) is the redneck-influenced exurbs and/or rural areas.  My uncle lives here - don't worry, he's a Republican and will never vote for a Hillary or a black man (or a Hispanic for that matter)
- There is a decent-sized Hispanic population here - most are your classic bourgeoisie Hispanics we'll start noticing in other areas.
- The other is likely Asian, if not some Middle Eastern.  Or your classic non-identifiers.
- A lot depends on who actually votes in the Dem primary.  Thus, my prediction would be...
Early Prediction:  Toss-up.
SD#8 - 4 delegates (Plano, McKinney, Carrolton, Irving, some of north Dallas)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist8_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 70.09%, Black - 6.01%, Hispanic - 14.32%, Other - 9.42%
Observations
- Another strongly Republican SD.
- As before, the question will be, who votes in the Dem primary.  Not many blacks, I suspect the Hispanics cancel it out, though the Hispanic numbers are slowly inching in the suburban white areas
- Given that "these" are more professional Dallas suburbs than SD#2, but they aren't the "inner Dallas suburbs", I'll say...
Early Prediction:  Toss-up
SD#9 - 3 delegates (DFW Metroplex area - Lewisville, Grand Prairie, some of Arlington, some of Irving)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/dist9_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 55.47%, Black - 12.37%, Hispanic - 24.38%, Other - 7.78%
Observations
- Unlike SD#8, the Republican margins here have really decreased over the years, especially in Grand Prairie and Arlington, as the Hispanics have started to take over.
- The SD still has a white majority (barely), therefore it votes Republican, but now we get into the older line Dallas/Fort Worth suburbs here.
- Once again, the blacks and Hispanics probably cancel each other out, but with the older line nature of the suburbs, I'll say...
Early Prediction:  Lean Obama
SD#10 - 5 delegates (Fort Worth metro area, southern Tarrant County, some of Arlington)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist10_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 56.61%, Black - 16.69%, Hispanic - 22.94%, Other - 3.76%
Observations
- Once upon a time, this use to be a strongly Democratic area.  Then the suburbs came, the 1990s came, and everything changed.
- Pluses for Obama - large black minority in a Republican SD; Texas Christian University is located here - once again, more conservative than UT, but...
- Obama should just hope that the whites in this area don't revert back to their old form, as they tend not to be the "professional" types - I doubt they will for a Clinton *too much*.
Early Prediction:  Lean Obama

[Sam Spade]

SD#11 - 4 delegates (SE Harris County, most of Brazoria and Galveston Counties, sans Galveston)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist11_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 65.47%, Black - 9.60%, Hispanic - 20.13%, Other - 4.80%
Observations
- A combination of hyper-Republican suburbs and white trash areas (with some Hispanic "white trash" - Galveston County in particular is historical Democratic and white trashy.
- This is probably the main "industrial area" of Texas nowadays, oil refineries alone make up half the population (just kidding)
- The blacks are quite spread out in this SD and tend to be rural (oddly enough).
- Friendswood and Clear Lake City are the most "professional" suburbs out here, the Brazosport area is the most Republican, Deer Park is where the oil refining execs live.  Other than that, redneck suburbs galore...
- Brazoria County in particular, is growing gangbusters, but the areas around Angleton going south to Lake Jackson are historically racist and still are (to put it mildly).
- In especially Galveston County (and southern Brazoria), east Texas racial voting caveats apply.
Early Prediction:  Safe Clinton
SD#12 - 4 delegates (North Fort Worth, Grapevine, South Denton County, southern part of Denton itself)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist12_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 76.28%, Black - 5.97%, Hispanic - 12.96%, Other - 4.79%
Observations
- Another hyper-Republican SD in the DFW suburbs.
- Contrary to what might be thought on first glance, this SD doesn't include most (actually it includes very, very little) of the University of North Texas.  Probably not enough to make a great impact.
- As mentioned before, this probably depends on who "actually votes" in the Democratic primary - that will probably be the key.  Will the few rural voters around here return to their Democratic roots.  Tough call.  Thus...
Early Prediction:  Toss-up
SD#13 - 7 delegates (Central Houston, Missouri City, Stafford)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist13_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 20.03%, Black - 48.86%, Hispanic - 24.12%, Other - 7.99%
Observations
- TEH BLACK SD IN H-TOWN!!111  The SD is gerrymandered about as black as it can be, and it's actually amusing to this local the cutarounds (which I can go into more if anyone's curious).
- Note though, the rapidly growing Hispanic population eating into the numbers slowly, but surely.  We'll see this in the Dallas black SD too.  And I'm using 2000 census numbers - it's probably higher now.
- The whites here are upper, upper-income professionals and rich or are gays, mostly (see area around Spur 527)
- The Other here (unlike the jokers in the rest of Texas) is Asian mostly.  The Vietnamese in Mid-town are to be ignored - they tend to vote Republican.  The Chinese in SW Houston are not.
- Clinton will reach viability here.  How much more - I have no clue.
Early Prediction:  Safe Obama
SD#14 - 8 delegates (Travis County)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist14_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 54.39%, Black - 10.73%, Hispanic - 29.10%, Other - 5.78%
Observations
- I always find it interesting that Travis County is never as Democratic as it's supposed to be (or as it used to be)
- The sliver cut out is not part of UT - rather part of the burgeoning suburbs.
- There is actually a decent-sized Hispanic vote here (and black vote too).  Austin isn't just hippy-dippy college kids - sometimes I have to remind myself this after listening to the drown of the forum.  Anyway...
Early Prediction:  Safe Obama
SD#15 - 4 delegates (Northern Harris County - generally, some Baytown)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist15_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 33.81%, Black - 25.99%, Hispanic - 35.20%, Other - 5.00%
Observations
- Demographically, this may be one of the most fascinating SDs out because of how the gerrymander looks.
- The eastern and northern part of the SD is what I refer to when talking about the subtle redneck area of Houston.  Sure, these are suburbs, but these suburbs don't like blacks, and there are more ancestral Democrats out here than you might presume. Lots of Hispanics live over here too. 
- The exception is the southern tail to the SD by Galena Park, which I should mention, even though it's probably only about 5,000 voters max.  That area is black.
- As we pass south of the North Belt on the western side, we get into the black territory (mostly)
- South of 290 and north of I-10 are older-line suburbs where the Hispanics have taken over rapidly, though it gets better for the whites the further out you go.
- There are a few classic inner-line white suburbs inside the loop there, along with a little Hispanic population.
- The Black-to-Hispanic ratio is probably good for Obama, but the Hispanics, as always are eating into everywhere here.  The white population that will likely vote in the Dem primary here would be my concern.  I might say Lean Obama, but I want to be cautious with this one, so...
Early Prediction:  Toss-up

[Sam Spade]

SD#16 - 4 delegates (North Dallas suburbs, Richardson, part of Garland)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist16_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 53.41%, Black - 12.66%, Hispanic - 27.62%, Other - 6.31%
Observations
- When I talk about inner-line suburbs in Texas, I'm talking about here.
- As in a lot of inner-line suburbs in Texas, the Hispanics are eating into these areas like crazy.
- Hispanic/black ratio is not great for Obama, the inner-line suburb quality will push him over.
Early Prediction:  Safe Obama

[Sam Spade]

Placemarker for SD# 21-25

[Sam Spade]

Placemarker for SD# 26-31

[MarkWarner08]

Since Texas allocates 126 of its 228 delegates by primary (67 are elected through the state convention by precinct meetings - the caucus angle), and these are allocated by Senate district, it is important to analyze these districts, because they differ from the CDs in many respects.

So, I'm going to lay out a long-term project about the SDs and what I know about them.  This may take a few days, however.
SD#1 (Northeast Texas - large cities include Texarkana, Longview, Marshall, most of Tyler)

Population:  White - 74.15%, Black 17.47%, Hispanic - 6.93%, Other - 1.45%
Observations
- Used to be strongly Democratic back in the day. 
- Many traces still exist on the local level - especially in the State House.  Bill Clinton performed quite well here in 1996, he may have won it, but I'm not doing the math.
- About half-urban, half-rural.  Urban is primarily towns of 100,000 or less.
- East Texas racial voting caveats apply.
- Closest district to Arkansas.
Early Observation:  Safe Clinton
SD#2 (East Dallas suburbs, Greenville and Sulphur Springs, some of Tyler)

Population: White - 68.90%, Black 13.35%, Hispanic 14.72%, Other 3.03%
Observations
- Has its rural parts (about a quarter), but the suburban growth of Dallas fundamentally changed this district.  The Tyler part is the black part of Tyler.
- Its residents are much higher income than they used to be - the danger is that those changes are new, and they still possess strong redneck roots.
- Dallas County is roughly half the SD.  About half of the SD is exurbs.  Now this area is still pretty strongly Republican, but it has been moving left slowly.  Most of the replacements in these areas are Hispanics.  The question will be:  Who crosses over?
Early Observation:  Lean Clinton

SD#3

SD #2 seems like fertile ground for Obama. The upper income voters, parity between blacks and Latinos, and the heavily Republican makeup of the area (Obama does well in Democratic pockets in solidly Republican areas) could push this to the O column.

[Sam Spade]

Since Texas allocates 126 of its 228 delegates by primary (67 are elected through the state convention by precinct meetings - the caucus angle), and these are allocated by Senate district, it is important to analyze these districts, because they differ from the CDs in many respects.

So, I'm going to lay out a long-term project about the SDs and what I know about them.  This may take a few days, however.
SD#1 (Northeast Texas - large cities include Texarkana, Longview, Marshall, most of Tyler)

Population:  White - 74.15%, Black 17.47%, Hispanic - 6.93%, Other - 1.45%
Observations
- Used to be strongly Democratic back in the day. 
- Many traces still exist on the local level - especially in the State House.  Bill Clinton performed quite well here in 1996, he may have won it, but I'm not doing the math.
- About half-urban, half-rural.  Urban is primarily towns of 100,000 or less.
- East Texas racial voting caveats apply.
- Closest district to Arkansas.
Early Observation:  Safe Clinton
SD#2 (East Dallas suburbs, Greenville and Sulphur Springs, some of Tyler)

Population: White - 68.90%, Black 13.35%, Hispanic 14.72%, Other 3.03%
Observations
- Has its rural parts (about a quarter), but the suburban growth of Dallas fundamentally changed this district.  The Tyler part is the black part of Tyler.
- Its residents are much higher income than they used to be - the danger is that those changes are new, and they still possess strong redneck roots.
- Dallas County is roughly half the SD.  About half of the SD is exurbs.  Now this area is still pretty strongly Republican, but it has been moving left slowly.  Most of the replacements in these areas are Hispanics.  The question will be:  Who crosses over?
Early Observation:  Lean Clinton

SD#3

SD #2 seems like fertile ground for Obama. The upper income voters, parity between blacks and Latinos, and the heavily Republican makeup of the area (Obama does well in Democratic pockets in solidly Republican areas) could push this to the O column.

If they show up...  And also, these upper-incomes tend to be a tad more redneck/Evangelical than in other places...  The professionals tend to live more on the north, northwest side of Dallas, rather than the Northeast and East...

Anyway, it's definitely more fertile than SD#1 or when I post it next, SD#3...

[Sam Spade]

Done with SD#1 through SD#5.  I'll try to do more this evening.

[Sam Spade]

SD#6 and SD#7 done.

[Sam Spade]

SD#8-SD#10 done.  Probably all for now.

[minionofmidas]

SD#8-SD#10 done.  Probably all for now.

NO! You will add SD#11-SD#31 this instant!

[Erc]

For the "safe" seats (i.e. SDs 1, 3, and 4), any prediction on whether Clinton should be able to break 62.5% of the two-way vote?

[Sam Spade]

What I see:

SD1 - possible, but the black population might be too large.  The one advantage for Clinton is closeness to Arkansas (in more ways than one).
SD3 - good chance, danger is the Edwards voters - see LA
SD4 - possible, depends on whether the Republican suburbs try to intervene (and how they intervene)
SD6 - place money on it.

With SDs 1, 3 and 4, the three eastern parishes of Sabine, Beauregard and Vernon are probably the best measures for what will happen in the primary, with some variation (e.g., there are Hispanics in these areas, unlike Louisiana, Sabine also has a large Indian population).

[Sam Spade]

Done with SD#11-SD#16

[Torie]

Are you giving any consideration to Republicans voting in the Dem primary Sam? Sinkspur at gopachy is voting for Obama. He lives in Euliss. Maybe the leak will become a flood.

[Sam Spade]

Are you giving any consideration to Republicans voting in the Dem primary Sam? Sinkspur at gopachy is voting for Obama. He lives in Euliss. Maybe the leak will become a flood.

I'm giving it quite a good bit of consideration, especially in these hyper-Republican CDs (note the toss-up calls) - but I'm personally leery about reading too much into anecdotal reports and I wonder how many will counteract that by voting for Hillary because they view her as a weaker candidate.

[Torie]

Are you giving any consideration to Republicans voting in the Dem primary Sam? Sinkspur at gopachy is voting for Obama. He lives in Euliss. Maybe the leak will become a flood.

I'm giving it quite a good bit of consideration, especially in these hyper-Republican CDs (note the toss-up calls) - but I'm personally leery about reading too much into anecdotal reports and I wonder how many will counteract that by voting for Hillary because they view her as a weaker candidate.

Here is something for you to consider. In recent SurveyUSA polls, in an Obama versus McCain race, 17% of Pubbies in New Mexico would vote for Obama, and 27% in Washington.  Right now there is Obamamania out there (plus maybe some McCain animus, but I think more the former).  But I have no idea what will happen.  All I know is something might happen that will have a significant impact on the races in Ohio and Texas.

[Sam Spade]

Are you giving any consideration to Republicans voting in the Dem primary Sam? Sinkspur at gopachy is voting for Obama. He lives in Euliss. Maybe the leak will become a flood.

I'm giving it quite a good bit of consideration, especially in these hyper-Republican CDs (note the toss-up calls) - but I'm personally leery about reading too much into anecdotal reports and I wonder how many will counteract that by voting for Hillary because they view her as a weaker candidate.

Here is something for you to consider. In recent SurveyUSA polls, in an Obama versus McCain race, 17% of Pubbies in New Mexico would vote for Obama, and 27% in Washington.  Right now there is Obamamania out there (plus maybe some McCain animus, but I think more the former).  But I have no idea what will happen.  All I know is something might happen that will have a significant impact on the races in Ohio and Texas.

All possible considerations as well.    I will and am, of course, considering the totality of the circumstances in my adjudging.

Including the latest SUSA poll out of VA.

[agcatter]

If Obama could add 10 to 12 points to his total with the addition of Republican and independent crossovers he could make Texas mighty close.

[Sam Spade]

I should also add that my analysis might change a bit once we get some decent polling here.  SUSA is historically pretty good in Texas, just FYI.

[jimrtex]

SD#1 - 4 delegates (Northeast Texas - large cities include Texarkana, Longview, Marshall, most of Tyler)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist1_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 74.15%, Black 17.47%, Hispanic - 6.93%, Other - 1.45%
Observations
- Used to be strongly Democratic back in the day. 
- Many traces still exist on the local level - especially in the State House.  Bill Clinton performed quite well here in 1996, he may have won it, but I'm not doing the math.
- About half-urban, half-rural.  Urban is primarily towns of 100,000 or less.
- East Texas racial voting caveats apply.
- Closest district to Arkansas.
Early Observation:  Safe Clinton

30.1% Kerry, 24.7% Bell (his 10th worst district).   Tyler and Longview make this district strongly Republican, but that would increase the influence of the Red River area in the Dem primary, as well as Blacks who could be up around 50% of the Dem electorate.   With 4 delegates, probably 2:2 split, though it could be a district where Huckabee and Edwards peel off votes.

SD#2 - 4 delegates (East Dallas suburbs, Greenville and Sulphur Springs, some of Tyler)

http://www.fyi.legis.state.tx.us/reports/senate/dist2/r8.htm

Population: White - 68.90%, Black 13.35%, Hispanic 14.72%, Other 3.03%
Observations
- Has its rural parts (about a quarter), but the suburban growth of Dallas fundamentally changed this district.  The Tyler part is the black part of Tyler.
- Its residents are much higher income than they used to be - the danger is that those changes are new, and they still possess strong redneck roots.
- Dallas County is roughly half the SD.  Now this area is still pretty strongly Republican, but it has been moving left slowly.  Most of the replacements in these areas are Hispanics.  The question will be:  Who crosses over?

Early Observation:  Lean Clinton

It was re-districting in 2001 that changed the character of the district, knocking off a Democrat senator in the process.  At 34.1% Kerry, 27.7% Bell, it is slightly more Democratic that SD 1.  With 4 delegates, again could be 2:2 split.

SD#3 - 4 delegates (Lufkin, Nacogdoches, northern half of Montgomery County/most of Conroe)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist3_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 75.75%, Black - 12.99%, Hispanic 9.89%, Other 1.37%
Observations
- In general, see SD#1.
- The Montgomery County section is the less developed section of that County - lots of exurbs, some still rural areas, especially northwest and northeast of Conroe.  Fast growing...
- East Texas racial voting caveats definitely apply here (yes, MontCo too).
Early Observation:  Safe Clinton

28.9% Kerry, 22.7% Bell (7th worst) could make Blacks up around 40% of electorate.

SD#4 - 4 delegates (South Montgomery County, far NE Harris County, Beaumont, Orange)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist4_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 75.34%, Black - 13.49%, Hispanic - 8.71%, Other - 2.46%
Observations
- Most of this area used to be highly Democratic - Beaumont area still is.
- In general, the separation of Beaumont from Port Arthur and Galveston really, really hurts Obama because it separates the blacks there (I can't tell you how much this hurts)
- The Woodlands and Kingwood are upper-income, hyper-Republican hotbeds.  Kingwood is more professional than the Woodlands, but that redneck element still exists in both places.  The rest of the Harris/Montgomery County areas might as well be considered east Texas.
- In the rest of the SD, east Texas racial voting caveats apply.
Early Observation:  Safe Clinton

Kerry 31.4%, Bell 23.4%.  Beaumont-Port Arthur is the only really strong union area of the state, but it has been losing population.

SD#5 - 4 delegates (Williamson County, Bryan/College Station, Huntsville)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist5_Map.pdf

Population: White - 68.93%, Black 12.34%, Hispanic - 15.76%, Other - 2.97%
Observations
- The Austin suburbs and Bryan/College Station dominate this SD.
- Bryan/College Station is where Texas A&M is located.  More conservative than UT, but still a university
- Although the Austin suburbs are Republican suburbs, they are professional class (usually) and will likely vote for Obama over Hillary, if not in great numbers. (compare to east Dallas/Houston suburbs)
- The rest of the SD (except Huntsville) is rural and will be predisposed against Obama, but I doubt it overcomes his share of the vote in these other areas.
Early Observation:  Lean Obama

33.3% Kerry, 26.2% Bell.  A lot of the rural counties in the Trinity and Brazos River bottoms have high percentages of Blacks (29% in Houston County), but Williamson County is only 5.5% Black, and was 40% of the district in 2000, and should be close to 50% now.

[jimrtex]

SD#6 - 3 delegates (Harris County - East Houston, parts of Pasadena, Baytown, Galena Park)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist6_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 17.92%, Black - 9.94%, Hispanic - 70.54%, Other - 2.60%
Observations
- This is the SD where is was born and grew up in!!!
- An obvious Hispanic gerrymander. (and I mean obvious)
- The whites in this SD are the subtle racist ones I talk about that populate areas of Harris County.  They tend to also be older - some indeed are ethnic whites! (go figure)
- I wouldn't be surprised if this population votes somewhere between 3-1/4-1 Dem primary.
Early Prediction:  Safe Clinton

59.8% Kerry, 50.6% Bell, but incredibly low turnout.  In 2004, Kerry had about twice the percentage of the vote as he had in SD 5, but only 2/3 of the total vote.  In 2006, it was Bell's 3rd best percentage, but 3rd worst numerically.  1/3 foreign born and 1/4 non-citizen (officially).  Two House primaries on the Democrat side, one to fill Noriega's seat, and the other to try to unseat Keven Bailey, a Craddick Democrat in the district between the North Freeway and the Eastex Freeway.   With only 2 delegates, 2:1 split is certain.

SD#7 - 3 delegates (Harris County - West Houston, Tomball, Jersey Village, Spring Branch)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist7_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 70.06%, Black - 6.87%, Hispanic - 16.28%, Other - 6.85%
Observations
- A lot of right-wing Republicans in this SD.  The rich professional suburbanites live in the areas closest to Houston (especially Spring Branch, the white area in the middle of the pink).  Ironically, these are perhaps the most Republican areas.
- The rest of Harris County (the rest of the white area) is the redneck-influenced exurbs and/or rural areas.  My uncle lives here - don't worry, he's a Republican and will never vote for a Hillary or a black man (or a Hispanic for that matter)
- There is a decent-sized Hispanic population here - most are your classic bourgeoisie Hispanics we'll start noticing in other areas.
- The other is likely Asian, if not some Middle Eastern.  Or your classic non-identifiers.
- A lot depends on who actually votes in the Dem primary.  Thus, my prediction would be...
Early Prediction:  Toss-up.

Kerry 27.5%, Bell 20.1%.  5% Asian by Census Bureau (note Harris County has Vietnamese election ballots, and Urdu is 5th most spoken language).   I wouldn't call Cy-Fair, 1960, or even Spring redneck areas.  Very much suburban.

SD#8 - 4 delegates (Plano, McKinney, Carrolton, Irving, some of north Dallas)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist8_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 70.09%, Black - 6.01%, Hispanic - 14.32%, Other - 9.42%
Observations
- Another strongly Republican SD.
- As before, the question will be, who votes in the Dem primary.  Not many blacks, I suspect the Hispanics cancel it out, though the Hispanic numbers are slowly inching in the suburban white areas
- Given that "these" are more professional Dallas suburbs than SD#2, but they aren't the "inner Dallas suburbs", I'll say...
Early Prediction:  Toss-up

31.2% Kerry, 25.7% Bell.   8% Asian.

SD#9 - 3 delegates (DFW Metroplex area - Lewisville, Grand Prairie, some of Arlington, some of Irving)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/dist9_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 55.47%, Black - 12.37%, Hispanic - 24.38%, Other - 7.78%
Observations
- Unlike SD#8, the Republican margins here have really decreased over the years, especially in Grand Prairie and Arlington, as the Hispanics have started to take over.
- The SD still has a white majority (barely), therefore it votes Republican, but now we get into the older line Dallas/Fort Worth suburbs here.
- Once again, the blacks and Hispanics probably cancel each other out, but with the older line nature of the suburbs, I'll say...
Early Prediction:  Lean Obama

Kerry 37.3%, 29.9% Bell.

SD#10 - 5 delegates (Fort Worth metro area, southern Tarrant County, some of Arlington)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist10_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 56.61%, Black - 16.69%, Hispanic - 22.94%, Other - 3.76%
Observations
- Once upon a time, this use to be a strongly Democratic area.  Then the suburbs came, the 1990s came, and everything changed.
- Pluses for Obama - large black minority in a Republican SD; Texas Christian University is located here - once again, more conservative than UT, but...
- Obama should just hope that the whites in this area don't revert back to their old form, as they tend not to be the "professional" types - I doubt they will for a Clinton *too much*.
Early Prediction:  Lean Obama

Kerry 40.4%, Bell 34.4%.  Fort Worth is a bit more working class than Dallas, with fewer corporate HQ, with the Stockyards, a GM plant, and a couple of aircraft plants.  Note that this is the 1st district that you have covered with more than 4 delegates.

[jimrtex]

SD#11 - 4 delegates (SE Harris County, most of Brazoria and Galveston Counties, sans Galveston)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist11_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 65.47%, Black - 9.60%, Hispanic - 20.13%, Other - 4.80%
Observations
- A combination of hyper-Republican suburbs and white trash areas (with some Hispanic "white trash" - Galveston County in particular is historical Democratic and white trashy.
- This is probably the main "industrial area" of Texas nowadays, oil refineries alone make up half the population (just kidding)
- The blacks are quite spread out in this SD and tend to be rural (oddly enough).
- Friendswood and Clear Lake City are the most "professional" suburbs out here, the Brazosport area is the most Republican, Deer Park is where the oil refining execs live.  Other than that, redneck suburbs galore...
- Brazoria County in particular, is growing gangbusters, but the areas around Angleton going south to Lake Jackson are historically racist and still are (to put it mildly).
- In especially Galveston County (and southern Brazoria), east Texas racial voting caveats apply.
Early Prediction:  Safe Clinton

Kerry 34.4%, Bell 26.6%.  The portion of the city of Galveston in the district is about 1/3 H, 1/3 B, 1/3 A.  Galveston has a history more of being corrupt than white trash (more like NOLA).   A lot of the Brazozport area is outside the district.  Some of the suburbs in the Pearland area have a pretty significant Black population.

SD#12 - 4 delegates (North Fort Worth, Grapevine, South Denton County, southern part of Denton itself)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist12_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 76.28%, Black - 5.97%, Hispanic - 12.96%, Other - 4.79%
Observations
- Another hyper-Republican SD in the DFW suburbs.
- Contrary to what might be thought on first glance, this SD doesn't include most (actually it includes very, very little) of the University of North Texas.  Probably not enough to make a great impact.
- As mentioned before, this probably depends on who "actually votes" in the Democratic primary - that will probably be the key.  Will the few rural voters around here return to their Democratic roots.  Tough call.  Thus...
Early Prediction:  Toss-up

Kerry 29.4%, Bell 24.6%.

SD#13 - 7 delegates (Central Houston, Missouri City, Stafford)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist13_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 20.03%, Black - 48.86%, Hispanic - 24.12%, Other - 7.99%
Observations
- TEH BLACK SD IN H-TOWN!!111  The SD is gerrymandered about as black as it can be, and it's actually amusing to this local the cutarounds (which I can go into more if anyone's curious).
- Note though, the rapidly growing Hispanic population eating into the numbers slowly, but surely.  We'll see this in the Dallas black SD too.  And I'm using 2000 census numbers - it's probably higher now.
- The whites here are upper, upper-income professionals and rich or are gays, mostly (see area around Spur 527)
- The Other here (unlike the jokers in the rest of Texas) is Asian mostly.  The Vietnamese in Mid-town are to be ignored - they tend to vote Republican.  The Chinese in SW Houston are not.
- Clinton will reach viability here.  How much more - I have no clue.
Early Prediction:  Safe Obama

That simply isn't true.  They could have included the Acres Home area in NW Houston and gotten the Black percentage up over 50%.  The district is over 20% foreign born, so the 25% Hispanic population doesn't translate into votes.

SD#14 - 8 delegates (Travis County)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist14_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 54.39%, Black - 10.73%, Hispanic - 29.10%, Other - 5.78%
Observations
- I always find it interesting that Travis County is never as Democratic as it's supposed to be (or as it used to be)
- The sliver cut out is not part of UT - rather part of the burgeoning suburbs.
- There is actually a decent-sized Hispanic vote here (and black vote too).  Austin isn't just hippy-dippy college kids - sometimes I have to remind myself this after listening to the drown of the forum.  Anyway...
Early Prediction:  Safe Obama

Kerry 57.2%, Bell 45.5%.  The sliver just get to the Colorado River.  UT and the Capitol are north of the river.

SD#15 - 4 delegates (Northern Harris County - generally, some Baytown)

http://www.senate.state.tx.us/Icons/Dist_Maps/Dist15_Map.pdf

Population:  White - 33.81%, Black - 25.99%, Hispanic - 35.20%, Other - 5.00%
Observations
- Demographically, this may be one of the most fascinating SDs out because of how the gerrymander looks.
- The eastern and northern part of the SD is what I refer to when talking about the subtle redneck area of Houston.  Sure, these are suburbs, but these suburbs don't like blacks, and there are more ancestral Democrats out here than you might presume. Lots of Hispanics live over here too. 
- The exception is the southern tail to the SD by Galena Park, which I should mention, even though it's probably only about 5,000 voters max.  That area is black.
- As we pass south of the North Belt on the western side, we get into the black territory (mostly)
- South of 290 and north of I-10 are older-line suburbs where the Hispanics have taken over rapidly, though it gets better for the whites the further out you go.
- There are a few classic inner-line white suburbs inside the loop there, along with a little Hispanic population.
- The Black-to-Hispanic ratio is probably good for Obama, but the Hispanics, as always are eating into everywhere here.  The white population that will likely vote in the Dem primary here would be my concern.  I might say Lean Obama, but I want to be cautious with this one, so...
Early Prediction:  Toss-up

Kerry 53.7%, Bell 42.1%.  The central area that the district wraps around includes parts of two CDs.  The western section is Hispanic and includes a connector to the East Houston based SD 6, that loops around the eastern section in NE Houston that is Black and is connected through downtown to the South Houston based SD 13.  But then after skipping these areas, SD 15 picks up other areas that are heavily Black or Hispanic in order to elect a White Democrat.

[minionofmidas]

Bump. Will this be continued?