The Tennessee map

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow. Anyone look at that thing?

Ugly. Even worse than a Mississippi general election map.

[Sam Spade]

What did you expect?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Alabama is worse. Seriously.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Alabama is worse. Seriously.

Probably not much worse than Georgia though (not that i'm complaining, I just think it's a bit ridiculous that Hillary got over 80% in some of the Appalachian counties while losing the state by a 2-1 margin)

[Sam Spade]

Alabama is worse. Seriously.

Probably not much worse than Georgia though (not that i'm complaining, I just think it's a bit ridiculous that Hillary got over 80% in some of the Appalachian counties while losing the state by a 2-1 margin)

What did you expect?  Same thing will happen in VA, btw.

Also explains why Obama will have so much trouble in PA, WV and KY.

[bgwah]

Alabama is worse. Seriously.

Probably not much worse than Georgia though (not that i'm complaining, I just think it's a bit ridiculous that Hillary got over 80% in some of the Appalachian counties while losing the state by a 2-1 margin)

What did you expect?  Same thing will happen in VA, btw.

Also explains why Obama will have so much trouble in PA, WV and KY.

West Virginia should sort of look like an inversed Idaho, right?

[bullmoose88]

Also explains why Obama will have so much trouble in PA, WV and KY.

But here's a distinguishing feature about PA...Philadelphia.  Yeah there are poorer white dems and hispanics which Hillary should do well with...and the neighboring jersey burbs favored clinton...but I think the PA burbs aren't like South Jersey...they're far more latte liberal.

Obama could do quite well in SE PA and in the city...I can't say so much about metro PA...but i imagine he'd win the state college area...hold his own in the lehigh valley...which is becoming more latte liberal as it also becomes exurban conservative...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

hold his own in the lehigh valley...which is becoming more latte liberal as it also becomes exurban conservative...

But how many of them are Democrats?

[bullmoose88]

hold his own in the lehigh valley...which is becoming more latte liberal as it also becomes exurban conservative...

But how many of them are Democrats?

Hard to say of course...theres still a strong union style democrat up there...which i'd guess supports hillary, but that area also has a big university element (I went to college in that region)..and a few decent sized towns with sizable minority groups...easton, allentown etc...

Additional problem i've just thought about...a lot of growth, if not exurban conservative, is from the NYC metro area in search of cheap houses...more latte-ish, but possibly more hillary friendly

[Sam Spade]

Also explains why Obama will have so much trouble in PA, WV and KY.

But here's a distinguishing feature about PA...Philadelphia.  Yeah there are poorer white dems and hispanics which Hillary should do well with...and the neighboring jersey burbs favored clinton...but I think the PA burbs aren't like South Jersey...they're far more latte liberal.

Obama could do quite well in SE PA and in the city...I can't say so much about metro PA...but i imagine he'd win the state college area...hold his own in the lehigh valley...which is becoming more latte liberal as it also becomes exurban conservative...

I ask Al's question also - I understand what's there in the Philly burbs - that's Obama's only saving grace.  Sub-10% black population doesn't help, however.  Also, what happens in the Keystone Phil area of Philadelphia - I kind of mentioned it earlier in some other thread, but this rhetorical question needs to be repeated.

State College is fine, but we've got western PA, not to mention northeast PA that's just going to be ugly for him.  Can Obama overcome that, in addition to Ed Rendell controlling the reins of everything in Philadelphia?

A few thoughts.  I'm sure Al can add.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is PA a closed or open primary?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Btw, the Tennessee map, in case anyone hasn't seen it yet:

[exopolitician]

Oh that stomach churning blood red color...how I despise it >_>

[Sam Spade]

Is PA a closed or open primary?

Closed.

[bullmoose88]

Also explains why Obama will have so much trouble in PA, WV and KY.

But here's a distinguishing feature about PA...Philadelphia.  Yeah there are poorer white dems and hispanics which Hillary should do well with...and the neighboring jersey burbs favored clinton...but I think the PA burbs aren't like South Jersey...they're far more latte liberal.

Obama could do quite well in SE PA and in the city...I can't say so much about metro PA...but i imagine he'd win the state college area...hold his own in the lehigh valley...which is becoming more latte liberal as it also becomes exurban conservative...

I ask Al's question also - I understand what's there in the Philly burbs - that's Obama's only saving grace.  Sub-10% black population doesn't help, however.  Also, what happens in the Keystone Phil area of Philadelphia - I kind of mentioned it earlier in some other thread, but this rhetorical question needs to be repeated.

State College is fine, but we've got western PA, not to mention northeast PA that's just going to be ugly for him.  Can Obama overcome that, in addition to Ed Rendell controlling the reins of everything in Philadelphia?

A few thoughts.  I'm sure Al can add.

Very good points...I'm sure Keystone Phil's area of philly will depend on Union endorsements...and I'm sure Eddie won't let Hillary get too bogged down in the city...but Philadelphia has a very large African American population...duh.

I don't know what Obama can get in the city of Pittsburgh...obviously suburban Pittsburgh won't go well for him.

I guess Rendell's influence will be important, but not too strong...the PA dems really can't afford to piss off the African Americans...so any method to outvoting them (as it seems Hillary needs...and I don't mean that in some sort of race war way...which it may sound) has to be fairly subtle.  Hillary simply can't afford to piss off PA african americans when she desperately needs the state in november....now back to the state

Northeastern PA...seems bad for Obama...unless he gets some union endorsements
Southeastern PA...would favor him
Philadelphia...Obama wins...but the real question is how much
The T...Decent Sized Clinton win...Obama could get some votes in Lancaster (the "city") and Harrisburg...and in State College (Centre County) but I cant see more...how did Hillary do in the border counties in NY state...thats probably how she'll do in the majority of the T
Western PA, outside of Pittsburgh itself...is very very bad for Obama...where's soulty to throw in his couple pennies on this.

[bullmoose88]

I mean, i think we either need to guess if PA is going to be like Tennessee, or if its going to be like Missouri...I think Missouri bears a pretty good resemblance to PA as far as this primary is concerned.

[Sam Spade]

I mean, i think we either need to guess if PA is going to be like Tennessee, or if its going to be like Missouri...I think Missouri bears a pretty good resemblance to PA as far as this primary is concerned.

Even though it's closed.  Missouri was not closed.

I personally think your too bullish on the importance of union endorsements in the ethnic and coal mining areas, but I reserve the right to be questioned here - unions are not my expertise.

[Хahar 🤔]

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2008&fips=47111&f=1&off=0&elect=1

LOL.

[bullmoose88]

I mean, i think we either need to guess if PA is going to be like Tennessee, or if its going to be like Missouri...I think Missouri bears a pretty good resemblance to PA as far as this primary is concerned.

Even though it's closed.  Missouri was not closed.

I personally think your too bullish on the importance of union endorsements in the ethnic and coal mining areas, but I reserve the right to be questioned here - unions are not my expertise.

All i'm suggesting is, a union endorsement or two obama's way and he can at least count on a little bit more of votes...I can't imagine those union workers switching to him enmasse, even in the union endorsing obama...but every little bit helps, and it may help in the sense that instead of clinton pulling 70% in those areas, she just pulls 65 or 60.

But one thing's certain...obama must run up the score in the southeast, and in latte liberal/university areas.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is PA a closed or open primary?

Closed.

In which case, the "census" from but a few months ago: http://www.dos.state.pa.us/elections/lib/elections/055_voter_registration_statistics/2007nov.pdf

[© tweed]

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2008&fips=47111&f=1&off=0&elect=1

LOL.

CNN says Obama 83 - Clinton 16 and I'm sure that they're right.

[bullmoose88]

i wish there was an easy way, like the ev calculator to make maps...