The Delegate Fight: Obama Clinches!

[Smash255]

The Obama campaign had him up in the pledged delegate count 910-882 after Super Tuesday.  He won Louisiana 34-22, Nebraska 16-8, Virgin Islands 3-0 and was up in Washington 43-15 with 20 delegates still to be allocated and won maine 15-9.  that puts Obama up 1021-936 with 20 delegates from Washington still outstanding.   Considering his current 43-15 margin in Washington if the breakout is similar to what is known Obama wins the remaining Washington delegates 14-6 or 15-5.  So he pretty much sets himself with about a 1035-942 or 1036-941 margin heading into the Primaries on Tuesday.

[Smash255]

The Washington state Democratic chair estimates the following delegate breakdown:
52 Obama
26 Hillary

Guess I was wrong in thinking that the margin would be similar to the breakdown we have seen already in the state.  Anyway if that is true and the info on Obama's website after Super Tuesday was right and other sources since it would put Obama at a 1030-947 advantage.

[Smash255]

I will look at it again when I get home from work and have more time, but I believe the delegate split is 83-75 for Clinton (if she holds onto the small lead in PA-7)

[Smash255]

I will look at it again when I get home from work and have more time, but I believe the delegate split is 83-75 for Clinton (if she holds onto the small lead in PA-7)

It's 84-74 if she wins PA-7; 83-75 if she loses it.

Depending on the source the numbers seem to change, Philly.com has PA-1 5-2 and Pa-2 7-2, meanwhile green papers has them 4-3 & 6-3.  Philly.com has much larger vote totals in those districts that green papers, meanwhile in PA-12 Philly.com has it 4-1, and Greenpapers has it 3-2 with higher vote totals on green papers. 

[Smash255]

I will look at it again when I get home from work and have more time, but I believe the delegate split is 83-75 for Clinton (if she holds onto the small lead in PA-7)

It's 84-74 if she wins PA-7; 83-75 if she loses it.

Depending on the source the numbers seem to change, Philly.com has PA-1 5-2 and Pa-2 7-2, meanwhile green papers has them 4-3 & 6-3.  Philly.com has much larger vote totals in those districts that green papers, meanwhile in PA-12 Philly.com has it 4-1, and Greenpapers has it 3-2 with higher vote totals on green papers. 

5-2, 7-2 and 4-1 are the results from those districts.

Thats what I thought.   Philly.com seems to be more accurate than green papers, PA-10 is another district with stark differences.  PA-10 is another district with large differences between the two (in the vote total)   Philly.com has seemed to be more accurate so far, so if they are right that might be one to look at.   As of now according to Philly.com she has a 3-1 lead in the district, but barley has that.  She has 62.69% of the vote with 20% of the precincts remaining, if she dips below 62.5%, its 2-2.

[Smash255]

I had 64.5% with 30% remaining, so I don't know. I thought it was unlikely that Clinton would fall below 62.5% then, but if she's that close with 20% remaining, it all depends on what's not reporting. So Clinton could theoretically end up with only 6 net delegates from PA if she falls below the threshold in PA-10 and Obama ends up winning PA-7.

Well PA-10 just updated again and Clinton is up to 66% with 93% in, so its pretty much going to stay at 3-1.   Pa-7 is still up in the air though.