The Delegate Fight: Obama Clinches!

[Erc]

In this thread, I'll be keeping a running tally of the delegates, and, as before, explaining upcoming contests and projecting delegate counts.

State	Clinton	Obama	Super (Clinton)	Super (Obama)	Super (Uncommitted) + Edwards	Total
Iowa	15	26	3	11	2 + 0	57
New Hampshire	9	9	3	8	1 + 0	30
Michigan	34.5	29.5	3.5	7	4	78.5
Nevada	11	14	2	3	4	34
South Carolina	12	25	2	14	1 + 0	54
Florida	52.5	33.5	4.5	8.5	5 + 1.5	105.5
Georgia	27	60	4	9	2	102
Alabama	25	27	3	2	3	60
Connecticut	22	26	2	10	0	60
Delaware	6	9	2	4	2	23
Illinois	49	104	0	28	3	184
Massachusetts	55	38	11	13	4	121
Missouri	36	36	5	6	5	88
New Jersey	59	48	12	5	3	127
Oklahoma	24	14	1	5	4	48
Tennessee	40	28	6	4	7	85
Kansas	9	23	1	6	2	41
Arkansas	27	8	11	0	1	47
Arizona	31	25	4	5	2	67
Minnesota	24	48	3	10	3	88
New Mexico	14	12	6	5	1	38
New York	139	93	46	1	2	281
North Dakota	5	8	0	7	1	21
Colorado	19	36	4	7	4	70
Idaho	3	15	0	4	1	23
Utah	9	14	1	3	2	29
Alaska	3	10	1	4	0	18
California	204	166	31	28	12	441
American Samoa	1.5	1.5	4	2	0	9
Virgin Islands	0	3	2	3	1	9
Nebraska	8	16	0	6	1	31
Washington	26	52	7	8	4	97
Louisiana	23	33	4	3	4	67
Maine	9	15	1	5	2	32
Virginia	29	54	5	7	6	101
D.C.	3	12	9	13	2	39
Maryland	28	42	10	12	6	99
Wisconsin	32	42	2	12	4	92
Hawai'i	6	14	2	7	0	29
Democrats Abroad	2.5	4.5	1.5	2.5	0	11
Vermont	6	9	1	5	2	23
Rhode Island	13	8	8	2	2	33
Ohio	74	67	6	6	9	162
Texas	95	98	14	13	8	228
Wyoming	5	7	1	5	0	18
Mississippi	13	20	0	5	3	41
Pennsylvania	85	73	17	6	6	187
Guam	2	2	2	3	0	9
North Carolina	48	67	3	10	6	134
Indiana	38	34	5	7	1	85
West Virginia	20	8	3	4	4	39
Kentucky	37	14	3	2	4	60
Oregon	21	31	2	8	3	65
Puerto Rico	38	17	4	2	2	63
South Dakota	8	7	0	6	2	23
Montana	7	9	0	4	5	25
"Unassigned"	0	0	0	0	2	2
Total	1635	1736	288.5	387	169 + 1.5	4233

Obama has clinched the nomination.

Recent Updates: (Superdelegates are generally updated daily).
6/3: SD results added, 1 Edwards At-Large delegate from Obama to Clinton (to be conservative)
6/2: PR results added, 6 Edwards FL delegates back to Edwards, Pelosi Club removed from Obama.
5/31: MI/FL ruling included.

Italicized States represent Caucus/Convention states that have not yet finished their processes.  As a result, their final delegate counts may be slightly different than those listed here.  A few of these are especially prone to change:

TX:  There are a form of local 'superdelegates' at the state convention (though they only form about 1.6% of delegates), which could have an effect.  Additionally, Obama is challenging results from Bexar and El Paso counties that may swing enough support his way to make the caucus result 38 - 29, not 37 - 30.
IA: Obama will likely gain a delegate from Clinton, assuming he gets a large majority of Edwards' supporters.
ID: Clinton is on the verge of losing viability statewide, so she may lose her one statewide delegate to Obama if enough of her supporters fail to arrive at the convention in Boise.

Notes:  Edwards still has 19 pledged delegates (8 in SC, 4 in NH, 4 and perhaps 3 more in IA)--plus 13 half-delegates in Florida.  With his recent endorsement of Obama, I am giving two of his At-Large Iowa delegates to Obama, and the third to Clinton [although, most likely, all three will go to Obama].  Of his named pledged delegates, all but 3 Florida delegates have endorsed Obama.

Although the Michigan delegate selection process may yet have its hurdles, I will assume that 59 delegates will be seated for Obama, as prescribed by the DNC.  Hillary may yet challenge the ruling on MI, but the five-delegate difference is not large enough to change the outcome (Obama has clenched in both scenarios).

The so-called 'Pelosi Club' of superdelegates (currently numbering 5) has pledged itself to vote for the candidate with the lead in pledged delegates at the end of the contest.  Even thoiugh Obama has now won the majority of pledged delegates, I consider members of the 'Pelosi Club' to be Uncommitted until they officially pledge to support Obama, to be conservative.

Timeline of Upcoming Events:

June 3:  Montana, South Dakota Primaries (Details)
June 7:  Texas State Convention
June 14:  Iowa, Idaho, Michigan State Conventions
June 15:  Washington State Convention
June 22: Nebraska State Convention

[Erc]

Updated given (preliminary) 2/9 results.

[Erc]

Added details on how the January 12 contests work (Democrats Abroad, DC, MD, VA), for those interested.

February 10:
Maine:
Closed Caucus
34 Delegates
--16 by District
--8 At-Large
--10 Unpledged

The caucuses are electing delegates to the State Convention (May 31), which selects Maine's delegates to the National Convention.

District Delegates:  9 for CD 1, 7 for CD 2.
At-Large Delegates: 5 Regular, 3 Pledged PLEO
Unpledged Delegates: 4 DNC Members, 2 Representatives, 1 Governor, 2 Party Leaders (George Mitchell, Kenneth Curtis), 1 Add-On (chosen at State Convention).  2 of these are for Clinton, 8 Uncommitted.

February 12:

District of Columbia:
Closed Primary
38 Delegates
--10 by District
--5 At-Large
--23 Unpledged

District Delegates are assigned 5 per 'district.'  District 1 = Wards 1-4 [N & W: Georgetown, Downtown, etc.]  District 2 = Wards 5 - 8 [S & E]
5 At-Large: 3 Regular, 2 Pledged PLEO
Unpledged Delegates: 17 DNC Members, 1 Representative (DC's delegate to Congress), 2 "Senators," 1 "Governor" (DC's Mayor), 2 'Add-Ons' (of which one is a 'Shadow Representative').
Add-Ons selected April 3, by the State Party Committee.

Maryland:
Closed Primary
99 Delegates
--46 by District
--24 At-Large
--29 Unpledged

District Delegates:
4 for CDs: 6
5 for CDs: 1, 2
6 for CDs: 3, 5, 7
7 for CDs: 4, 8

At-Large Delegates:
--18 DNC Members
--6 Representatives
--2 Senators
--1 Governor
--2 'Add-Ons' (selected May 1, State Democratic Central Committee meeting)

Virginia:
Open Primary
101 Delegates
--54 Delegates
--29 At-Large
--18 Unpledged

District Delegates:
4 for CDs: 1, 2, 5, 6, 9
5 for CDs: 4, 7, 10
6 for CDs: 3, 11
7 for CDs: 8

At-Large Delegates:
18 At-Large
11 Pledged PLEO

Unpledged Delegates:
10 DNC Members
3 Representatives
1 Senator
1 Governor
1 Party Leader (Terry McAuliffe)
2 'Add-Ons' (selected by State Convention, June 12)

[Erc]

It's funny how much various organizations are screwing up the counting of delegates. One common mistake is to hear that American Samoa has 3 delegates, and give Clinton 2 and Obama 1, without realizing that there are actually 6 delegates, each worth half a vote.

I've heard conflicting reports as to the territories' superdelegates:  do they get full or half votes?  (or even, as I've heard strange reports of, some mix of full and quarter delegates in American Samoa).

Update in for Maine:
Obama won big in CD 1 [6 - 3] and won in CD 2 [4 - 3], giving him a very healthy delegate lead there (gains a margin of +6 delegates)

[Erc]

Fixed Washington (I had given 9 too many delegates to the state, so Obama's lead drops by 3), and modified the Republican count (Romney loses his 26 delegates in Michigan by dropping out of the race).

[Erc]

Added preliminary results from the Potomac Primary.

In Virginia, Obama wins all but one CD (CD 9, the far western portion of the state, where he was crushed).  This nets him 54 delegates to Clinton's 29.  The totals could change slightly as more results come in.

In DC, we're still waiting on ward-by-ward breakdown, but unless Obama was under 70% in Wards 1-4 (or Clinton didn't meet viability in Wards 5-8), it looks like 12 Obama - 3 Clinton.

In Maryland, these are very partial results, so it'll be a while before we have a definite delegate result.  Best guess so far is Obama 45 - Clinton 25.

The last Democrats Abroad polling station closed at 11 PM (in Calgary).  We probably won't have definite results (apart from a few sporadic countries) for a while, though.  (If I'm mistaken, I'd be appreciated if I could be directed to results).


Net results of today's primaries:
Obama increases his delegate position immensely.

Amongst pledged delegates, he's up by 134.
Amongst all delegates, he's up by 59.
Even when you throw in MI & FL into that mix, he's only down by 8.

Not looking good for Clinton...every delegate she loses now is another superdelegate she'll have to fight for.

(As usual, my counts of superdelegates only include those from states which have already voted--which I feel is more representative of how the final picture may look.  [Although, at this point, that only excludes 30% of the superdelegates].  As a result, other numbers you see may be more friendly to Clinton amongst all delegates.  Combine that with the usual slowness to assign delegates in caucus states [where Obama does well], and that explains why delegate counts in the news media may not agree with mine).

[Erc]

Thanks to the mods for the sticky.


Comparisions of superdelegate counts:

What I use (DemConWatch):
Clinton: 180
Obama: 105
[Clinton +75]

Politico (mainly based on DemConWatch, but has a few extra sources) [thanks for referring me to this, gmo]
Clinton: 184
Obama: 110
[Clinton +74]

CNN (no sources given, they poll some of the superdelegates themselves)
Clinton: 184
Obama: 123
[Clinton +61]

[Erc]

Final VA results by CD are in, Obama wins delegates 54-29.

Obama is about 170 votes [0.1%] short of winning a fifth delegate in CD 8, so it's possible that result might change...but all precincts in the district are reporting, so it seems unlikely at this point.

[Erc]

Updated the Superdelegate Count.
Obama's now only down 2 in all delegates when MI & FL are included.

Upcoming Contest Details:

February 19:

Wisconsin:
Open Primary
92 Delegates
--48 by CD
--26 At-Large
--18 Unpledged

District Delegates
5 for CDs: 5, 6
6 for CDs: 1, 3, 4, 7, 8
8 for CDs: 2

At-Large Delegates:
16 At-Large
10 Pledged PLEO

Unpledged Delegates:
8 DNC Members (1 Clinton, 1 Obama)
5 Representatives (1 Clinton, 2 Obama)
2 Senators
1 Governor (1 Obama)
2 'Add-Ons' (selected by the Administrative Committee of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, either in early June or mid-August)

Hawaii:
Closed 'Caucus' (Firehouse Primary)
29 Delegates
--13 by District
--7 At-Large
--9 Unpledged

Note that, although this is a caucus, the delegates are to be assigned directly based on the results of the caucus--this is more like MN than IA.

District Delegates:
CD 1: 6 delegates

At-Large Delegates:
4 At-Large
3 Pledged PLEO

Unpledged Delegates:
4 DNC Members (1 Clinton)
2 Representatives (1 Obama)
2 Senators (1 Clinton)
1 Add-On (selected by the State Party Committee, May 25)


Democrats Abroad will be reporting their final numbers on February 21.

[Erc]

Thanks, american woman.  My counts are based on the breakdowns as of Feb. 6th or so (when I did the math), so if additional votes have come in here or there, that may change my results.

I'll also give another check-through of the other states to make sure that isn't the case elsewhere.

[Erc]

Nice list you have going here.  California should be:

   Clinton - 204
   Obama - 166

This is per my own calculations based on California returns at:
http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/dcd/all.htm

Also, Green Papers came up with the same numbers as of today (02/15):
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/CA-D.phtml

Obama gained slightly statewide and in a few key CDs in the last portion of counting, which gave him an additional delegate in CDs 16 & 51, and one additional delegate statewide.  (In CD 16, he got that second delegate by a margin of about 22 votes).

So Obama gains three delegates (and thus widens his lead over Clinton by 6 delegates) based on late returns in CA.

[Erc]

Also, for Illinois I have:

Clinton - 49
Obama - 104

This is based on:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2008/by_cd/IL_Page_0205_VD.html

A candidate must have at least 15% in a congressional district to qualify for delegates from that district. There are 2 CDs in Illinois where Senator Clinton only reached 12 or 13%. Most reporting organizations are missing this (including, oddly enough, the Obama campaign).

Late returns gave a boost to Obama in CD 1, pushing Clinton under viability (accounting for one of those two delegates).  A couple of the downstate districts gave Obama two more delegates, to make it 104-49, as you said.

[Erc]

The corrections to CA & IL put Obama in the lead for the first time amongst all delegates (including MI & FL), if one assumes that MI's Uncommitted slate is entirely for Obama.  However, there's no guarantee of this whatsoever.  Obama does not get to review the Uncommitted slate (they're not his, after all), so there could be many Clinton supporters under the "Uncommitted" label.  The uncommitted district delegates are chosen at District Conventions on March 29, while the At-Large delegates are selected by the State Party Central Committee on May 17.

As a result, until we know how those Uncommitted delegates are going to vote, I'm going to put Michigan's Uncommited delegates in with the unpledged PLEOs (which is fair enough, since the Uncommitted delegation could easily split down the middle [or even split for Clinton, depending on who shows up at the District Conventions / who controls the State Party Central Committee]).

As a result, under the new count, Clinton still has a 45-delegate lead when MI & FL are included.

[Erc]

Erc, I know this thread is primarily for tracking the Democratic delegates, but you also list the GOP totals, so I figured you might be interested in these stories about McCain picking up delegates in MI & LA:

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008/02/states_delegates_move_to_mccai.html

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gUSEb3otSltjMiqOhs0CLj_ma5CAD8URK9HO1

Thanks for the update.  I was wondering about the LA convention results.

Any news out of Guam?  They were supposed to have a convention yesterday, I think.

[Erc]

Very preliminary delegate estimate for Wisconsin:

Obama 41
Clinton 33

If anyone has (any) by-district breakdown, it'd be appreciated.

[Erc]

Thanks, BRTD.

Looks like Obama's going to pull out decisive wins in CDs 3 & 4, so Obama 43 - Clinton 31 looks very likely.

On the Republican side, Huckabee is within 13 votes in CD 3.  Otherwise, McCain wins all the delegates handily.  McCain 37, Huckabee 0, with 3 still too close to call.

[Erc]

Huckabee appears to have pulled ahead in CD 3, so it looks as if he may get 3 delegates tonight out of Wisconsin.

The win in Wisconsin means that McCain and Romney's delegates now form a majority of all delegates.  This means that (A) Huckabee cannot win this short of a floor fight, and (B) McCain has clinched the nomination if Romney delegates follow the endorsement of their candidate.

[Erc]

Just a quick something to note:

If Hillary goes 50-50 in pledged delegates from here on out (certainly not unfeasible), and wins 60% of the remaining unpledged delegates (she's won about 60% of the ones who've endorsed so far), she beats Obama by 3 delegates in the end, even without MI & FL being restored.

So don't declare her dead just yet.

[Erc]

Obama just barely falls short of 75% in Hawai'i's CD 1, so the final delegate count in HI is 14-6 Obama, not 15-5.

[Erc]

Right now, Obama is up 162 in pledged delegates [1207.5 - 1045.5, with 988 yet to be assigned]

Clinton is up 74.5 in superdelegates, including states which haven't voted yet [237 - 162.5, with 395.5 yet to commit and 12 pledged Edwards delegates (who are effectively superdelegates at this point)].

This is a net Obama lead of 87.5 delegates.

If Obama and Clinton split the remaining 988 pledged delegates 494 - 494 (being a bit unfriendly to Clinton here), she would need to win the remaining superdelegates 248 - 159.5 [i.e. 61% of them], gaining back a 88.5 delegate margin and winning the nomination 2024.5 to 2023.5.


Note that Clinton is likely to do better than even in the remaining states, however.  In a not unreasonable scenario (Obama wins DA, MS, OR, WY, MT, SD, and Clinton wins the rest [though none by huge margins]), Clinton wins 515.5 delegates to Obama's 472.5.

Net pledged total:
Obama 1680 - Clinton 1561 (+119 Obama)

Including superdelegates:
Obama 1842.5 - Clinton 1798 (+ 44.5 Obama)

Clinton would then only have to win 226.5 out of the remaining 407.5 superdelegates (or 55.6%) in order to win the nomination.

And if, somehow, she gets MI & FL reinstated, she'd only need to win 43% of the remaining superdelegates to win the nomination.

[Erc]

Democratic Bonus Delegates:

In addition to penalizing MI & FL for going early (by stripping them of all of their delegates), the DNC also offered incentives for states to go later in the cycle:

5% more delegates for going in April
10% more delegates for going in May or June
15% more delegates for moving into April (from March or earlier)
30% more delegates for moving into May or June (from April or earlier).

Most states didn't take them up on the offer.  A few states were simply lazy and didn't move their primaries up, and only two states (NC & Guam) actually took advantage of these rules to get more than 10% bonus delegates.

The net result is that states going later in the cycle will be slightly overrepresented at the convention (NC significantly so).

54 'bonus' delegates have been awarded to states as a result:
NC: +24
PA: +7
IN: +6
KY: +4
OR: +4
Puerto Rico: +4
WV: +2
SD: +1
MT: +1
Guam: +1

If Pennsylvania had decided to move their primary back a week (into May), instead of forward a week, they'd have gotten the +30% bonus, and would have received 39 bonus delegates instead of 7.

Will these 54 bonus delegates matter?  Probably not. It'll be hard for anyone to get more than   a +5 delegate margin out of them, anyway.  Though, if either candidate wins NC decisively, who knows.

[Erc]

Both the Representatives from WI-03 and WI-08 have said that they would endorse and vote for as a superdelegate for whoever carried their district (with the WI-03 Rep also condemning the superdelegate system and calling for its elimination.) So there's two more superdelegate votes for Obama if not tallied yet.

I got WI-03, but not WI-08 (I don't think he's issued an official statement yet that he's endorsing Obama, so I hadn't caught it).  I'll add him in though.

[Erc]

Marianne Spraggins, a DNC member.  (She was also a superdelegate in 2000 & 2004).  There's a slight possibility that she's moved to Georgia, but she's still a superdelegate (At-Large DNC member).

[Erc]

Democrats Abroad Results:

Obama wins 2 half-delegates to Clinton's 1 in each of the 3 worldwide districts.

Those 9 half-delegates and the 8 half-superdelegates pick the remaining 5 At-Large delegates. 

Of the 8 half-superdelegates, 3 have endorsed Obama, 2 have endorsed Clinton, and 3 are as of yet uncommitted.

Unless all 3 uncommitted ones endorse Obama, the final breakdown in pledged delegates will be Obama 4.5 - Clinton 2.5  (would be 5-2 if the supers all break his way).



Democrats Abroad:
Closed Caucus / Convention
11 Delegates
--4.5 by District
--2.5 At-Large
--4 Unpledged

Democrats Abroad will have 22 delegates, each of whom will have a half vote on the convention floor (hence the half-delegates).

Democrats in each country vote (in person, by mail, or online) to select delegates to Regional Caucuses (to be held March 15 - April 11).  The Regional Caucuses select 3 half-delegates each.  The three regions are:  Americas, Asia-Pacific [Australia, Japan, India, SE Asia], Europe-Middle-East-Africa.

On April 12, the 8 Unpledged delegates [All DNC Members] and the 9 delegates selected at the regional caucuses select the other 5 half-delegates (3 At-Large, 2 Pledged PLEO).

[Erc]

Obama's High Water Mark?

If Clinton is to stage a comeback, it's going to start on March 4th.  Which means that March 3rd may be his high water mark.

Pledged: +165 Obama
Total: +126 Obama
Total Incl. MI/FL: +5 Obama
All Delegates: +3 Clinton