The Delegate Fight: Obama Clinches!

[J. J.]

Let's envision the following scenario:

Clinton has a pretty good rest of the primary season...winning the states she should win in by narrow margins (incl. IN & NC, for arguments' sake--let's say she gets an Edwards endorsement), and winning PR by a substantial, if not blowout margins.

There are also revotes in FL & MI (or they're counted as normal, but with all the Uncommitted for Obama), giving Hillary substantial, if closer wins than in actuality. 


Obama still comes out of this up 31 delegates.  She'd then need to win 194 of the remaining 357 superdelegates (54.3%) to win the nomination. 

That's the best case scenario for Clinton.   She needs to win at least 194 of the remaining superdelegates to have a reasonable shot.

Greenpages gives this count excluding MI/FL, but counting the super delegates.


B Obama     1,457.5
H Clinton   1,404.5

+53 Obama.

Greenpages gives this count excluding MI/FL for elected delegates:

B Obama  1,264.5
H Clinton  1,165.5

+99 Obama.

Clinton has a +110 delegate gain with MI/FL and there are still 55 "uncommitted" delegates from MI and Edwards 26 to 39 delegates.

Obama needs to basically get a 204 lead in elected delegates to make the "I have more elected delegates than Hillary has."  He needs an additional 104 net gain.

The good news is, Clinton can't make the claim either.

[J. J.]

Let's envision the following scenario:

Clinton has a pretty good rest of the primary season...winning the states she should win in by narrow margins (incl. IN & NC, for arguments' sake--let's say she gets an Edwards endorsement), and winning PR by a substantial, if not blowout margins.

There are also revotes in FL & MI (or they're counted as normal, but with all the Uncommitted for Obama), giving Hillary substantial, if closer wins than in actuality. 


Obama still comes out of this up 31 delegates.  She'd then need to win 194 of the remaining 357 superdelegates (54.3%) to win the nomination. 

That's the best case scenario for Clinton.   She needs to win at least 194 of the remaining superdelegates to have a reasonable shot.

Greenpages gives this count excluding MI/FL, but counting the super delegates.


B Obama     1,457.5
H Clinton   1,404.5

+53 Obama.

Greenpages gives this count excluding MI/FL for elected delegates:

B Obama  1,264.5
H Clinton  1,165.5

+99 Obama.

Clinton has a +110 delegate gain with MI/FL and there are still 55 "uncommitted" delegates from MI and Edwards 26 to 39 delegates.

Obama needs to basically get a 204 lead in elected delegates to make the "I have more elected delegates than Hillary has."  He needs an additional 104 net gain.

The good news is, Clinton can't make the claim either.

If you want to not be seen as a hack you need to quit basing things off only the Green Papers ones:

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/02/ultimate-delegate-tracker.html

Green Papers gives a far more pro-Hillary count than anyone else (except NY Times, but that's only because they don't count caucuses until the delegates are official allocated.) Why? Look at Illinois for starters.

It's probably just oversight or laziness on their part, but it's pretty obvious that Green Papers is not the most accurate counter, regardless of if you want it to be.

You're also posting this in a thread about counting the delegates. If you consider the Green Papers numbers to be more accurate than Erc's, you better have a good explanation as to why.

Interesting, Greenpapers is showing lower overall totals.  So far, they don't seem to be ideologically based and the others are still showing a well below the 200 delegate gap to really assure an Obama victory.   Now, as far as I can tell, those FL/MI delegates become key.

BTW speaking of hacks BRTD, we're you the one that said Clinton would have a net loss of delegates yesterday?  Even the best estimates show a net gain, even though she was massively outspent.


This thing is going to June, at least, and possibly to the convention, probably without Obama being able to to unambiguously claim that he has more elected delegates.  Get ready for a floor fight. 

[J. J.]

The MI 55 uncommitted delegates.  What are the minimums that each candidate can get?

[J. J.]

Pennsylvania: If Hillary wins with 57-58% of the vote it would mean 31-24 in at-large delegates. I know a couple of people have gone through the districts, so I'll try to add some average of those predictions later on. EDIT: seems like BRTD was the only one who gave a full analysis. He had Clinton +1, but looking at the results out of Wyoming and Mississippi and his idea of a 10% Clinton win I suspect he was a bit biased.  Clinton +8 for now, but I hope someone else can add something to this. 

I's expect a net gain of 10-12 in district delegates, conservatively.  Obama has four districts, max, where he can get a majority.  Liberally, Obama could have a 25 seat loss in the district seats, but that is unlikely.

[J. J.]

So no one appears to consider the "popular vote" of more importance (and for the record none of them appear to consider Florida and Michigan as counting either, regardless of what J. J. thinks.)

We'll see in the next four weeks.