The Delegate Fight: Obama Clinches!

[Erc]

I'm going to have less convenient access to computers over the next week and a half.

Updates of delegate numbers will continue through next Tuesday night (but don't expect regular updates of the percentage figures--the 84.9% number will be there for a while).

For approximately a week after KY/OR, there likely won't be any updates period.

[Erc]

It's Saturday, so it's Convention Day!

And my, what a Convention day it is.

Colorado is holding its State Convention today, the final leg in its long caucus process that began on February 5th.  The convention will be deciding the allocation of Colorado's 7 Pledged PLEO delegates, 12 At-Large delegates, and 1 'Add-On.'

The Pledged PLEOs are expected to break down 5 - 2 for Obama, but this is the race to watch...it may yet be 4 - 3 Obama.  The At-Large delegates are pretty safely 8 - 4 Obama, and the Add-On is at this point guaranteed to be for Obama.

Also expect soon announced results from the Congressional District Conventions held yesterday in CDs 3, 4, and 5.

Kansas is holding its State Convention today, selecting 7 At-Large, 4 Pledged PLEO, and 1 Add-On delegate.  These are expected to go 5 - 2, 3 - 1 and presumably 1 - 0 in favor of Obama.

Washington is finally selecting the first of its delegates to Denver at its Congressional District Conventions.  This should clear up most of any mystery remaining regarding the Washington delegation.

Michigan was originally scheduled to have its State Central Committee meeting on May 17th.  This would have picked the At-Large delegation based on the results of the primary---most importantly for our purposes, they would have picked the Uncommitted delegation.  However, due to the uncertain fate of the Michigan delegation, the State Central Committee meeting has been moved to June 14th, after an expected resolution of the MI/FL delegate issue around May 31.

Nevada has the first day of its State Convention today.  Delegates (both CD, At-Large, and Add-On) should be chosen tomorrow.

[Erc]

Given that a compromise on MI/FL is looking increasingly likely (the current leading plan appears to be halve Florida's delegation and divide MI 69 - 59 for Clinton), I've decided to change the 'Magic Number' to correspond with that division of MI/FL delegates.

Not that this improves Clinton's chances all that much---she still needs to win 77% of remaining superdelegates (compared to the 86% in her worst-case scenario).

[Verily]

The Obama campaign apparently dominated the Nevada convention, with 55% of state-level delegates who showed up supporting him. That means he managed to break the even split of the statewide delegates in his favor and probably also got the add-on (no confirmation on that yet):

http://blogs.rgj.com/inside-nevada-politics/

Nevada splits 14-11 Obama (instead of the original 13-12).

[emailking]

The Obama campaign apparently dominated the Nevada convention, with 55% of state-level delegates who showed up supporting him. That means he managed to break the even split of the statewide delegates in his favor and probably also got the add-on (no confirmation on that yet):

http://blogs.rgj.com/inside-nevada-politics/

Nevada splits 14-11 Obama (instead of the original 13-12).

How does this even happen? Does this mean that many people who agreed to be delegates for Hillary and were elected as such just decided not to go?

[Verily]

The Obama campaign apparently dominated the Nevada convention, with 55% of state-level delegates who showed up supporting him. That means he managed to break the even split of the statewide delegates in his favor and probably also got the add-on (no confirmation on that yet):

http://blogs.rgj.com/inside-nevada-politics/

Nevada splits 14-11 Obama (instead of the original 13-12).

How does this even happen? Does this mean that many people who agreed to be delegates for Hillary and were elected as such just decided not to go?

Possibly. It may simply be that many of Clinton's delegates switched over and voted for Obama. It has been months since they were selected at the Nevada caucuses, after all, and Obama now looks inevitable.

Theoretically, state-level delegates are pledged. But, unlike with delegates to the national convention, delegates to the state conventions simply can't be vetted very much because there are so many of them (over 2,500 in Nevada). So a lot of those selected as Clinton state delegates were probably soft Clinton supporters who have since changed allegiances. After all, Obama trailed significantly in the national polls at the time of Nevada; he now leads substantially nationally. A lot of opinions have changed in his favor.

Also, apparently the add-on will be selected tomorrow. The convention stretches for the whole weekend.

[emailking]

Thanks for the explanation.

I really think this whole method is just insane. The whole thing is like a bunch of different levels of electoral college. It's 2008. I think we should either go by the popular vote or make the various levels of representation automatic after the actual initial voting.

[Flying Dog]

Thanks for the explanation.

I really think this whole method is just insane. The whole thing is like a bunch of different levels of electoral college. It's 2008. I think we should either go by the popular vote or make the various levels of representation automatic after the actual initial voting.

The thing is that some caucus states don't have concrete evaluations on who turned out for who. Just delegate allocations.

[emailking]

The thing is that some caucus states don't have concrete evaluations on who turned out for who. Just delegate allocations.

I'm hoping this part will change, but if it doesn't or can't then I would say make it automatic based on the initial delegate allocations out of election night. Basically, I think we should take out of the process the possibility of the "faithless elector" so to speak, or the delegate who can't show up because it's a long drive and Obama is going to win anyway, etc.

[Meeker]

Any word from Washington? I've been having trouble finding results, but I'll keep asking around.

[Erc]

Any word from Washington? I've been having trouble finding results, but I'll keep asking around.

I haven't found anything out of Washington or Colorado [state or CDs 3/4/5]...or, for that matter, official word out of Kansas as to their final delegate count.

My view is that we'd probably have heard something reported in the news had anything unexpected happened...but the lack of any news is unfortunate.

From the language I've seen thrown around regarding Washington, it seems nobody expected anything to happen...the 1st CD dems had been saying a month ago, for example: "The 1st Congressional district will elect exactly 6 delegates and those will be allocated 4 for Obama and 2 for Clinton.
     The Obama delegates will be in one room voting for their 2 men and 2 women, and the Clinton delegates will be in another room voting for their one man and one woman."

[Meeker]

Yea, I doubt anything very unexpected happened either. However, Saturday was a gorgeous day (best weather we may have all year) and there may be some discouraged Hillary supporters who were inclined to stay home... probably not en masse though, they're pretty dedicated at this point. And the usual caucus oddities could occur.

I've e-mailed someone I know in the local party who should be able to give final numbers, if they don't let me down...

[RouterJockey]

Alaska's last two uncommitted superdelegates came out for Obama today.  Makes AK supers 3-1 in favor of Obama.

Reference:  http://community.adn.com/adn/node/123614

[Erc]

With the endorsement of the two AK DNC members, we've reached a few notable milestones in the % superdelegates numbers...

If everything goes horribly for Clinton in MI/FL (neither delegation seated), Clinton would need over 90% of remaining superdelegates.

If everything goes as expected for Clinton in MI/FL (Half-Nelson in FL, 10-delegate lead in MI), Clinton would need over 80% of remaining superdelegates.

If everything goes in Clinton's favor in MI/FL (delegation completely restored and At-Large delegation remains Uncommitted), Clinton would need over two-thirds of remaining superdelegates.

[motomonkey]

What does "pledged" superdelegate really mean?  Can a "pledged" superdelegate change their mind? How often is that happening? 

My understanding is that a "pledged" superdelegate means that the delegate has publicly committed to vote at the convention for a particular candidate.  But, if a "pledged" superdelegate determined there was sufficient cause (would vary by individual) and they were willing to live with the criticism, they could change their vote and vote differently than their "pledge." 

Are there "rules" on pledging and changing ones commitment?

[emailking]

I've never heard someone talk about a "pledged superdelgate." Anyway, all delegates can vote for whomever they want at the convention. A so called "pledged" or "elected" delegate is merely breaking his/her promise if voting for someone else. Superdelegates have more political leeway to change their minds if they choose since they are supposed to be making up their own minds (by whatever standard) in the first place.

[Lunar]

With the endorsement of the two AK DNC members, we've reached a few notable milestones in the % superdelegates numbers...

If everything goes horribly for Clinton in MI/FL (neither delegation seated), Clinton would need over 90% of remaining superdelegates.

If everything goes as expected for Clinton in MI/FL (Half-Nelson in FL, 10-delegate lead in MI), Clinton would need over 80% of remaining superdelegates.

If everything goes in Clinton's favor in MI/FL (delegation completely restored and At-Large delegation remains Uncommitted), Clinton would need over two-thirds of remaining superdelegates.

Are you counting Michigan's uncommitted delegates as undeclared superdelegates?  Many of them have already endorsed and Clinton's own campaign admits that Obama will get at least a huge slice of them.

[Gustaf]

Is it practically possible to "coup" the convention? I don't really know much about DNC rules. Is the ballot secret, for instance? Is it just one vote and when it's done, it's done?

[The Mikado]

Is it practically possible to "coup" the convention? I don't really know much about DNC rules. Is the ballot secret, for instance? Is it just one vote and when it's done, it's done?

If one candidate gets over 50%, yes, it would be done.  The ballot is done by state ("and state is proud to give number delegates to male Senator and number delegates to female Senator"), but I'm sure the gossip would be intense and the faithless delegates would be quickly exposed.

[Erc]

With the endorsement of the two AK DNC members, we've reached a few notable milestones in the % superdelegates numbers...

If everything goes horribly for Clinton in MI/FL (neither delegation seated), Clinton would need over 90% of remaining superdelegates.

If everything goes as expected for Clinton in MI/FL (Half-Nelson in FL, 10-delegate lead in MI), Clinton would need over 80% of remaining superdelegates.

If everything goes in Clinton's favor in MI/FL (delegation completely restored and At-Large delegation remains Uncommitted), Clinton would need over two-thirds of remaining superdelegates.

Are you counting Michigan's uncommitted delegates as undeclared superdelegates?  Many of them have already endorsed and Clinton's own campaign admits that Obama will get at least a huge slice of them.

Only 36 of the Uncommitted delegates have been chosen (the ones by CD).  The rest are currently slated to be chosen on the 14th of June.  Of those 36, 15 were vetted by Michiganders for Obama, an additional 10 have endorsed Obama, and 11 were on union-backed slates who were uncommitted as of April 19.  Some of those 11 may have since endorsed, but there's little information out there.  I do have most of their names (look earlier in this thread for details).

The remaining 19 At-Large have not yet been chosen, and are currently scheduled to be selected on June 14th.

In most of my counts involving MI/FL, I've counted the 30 Uncommitted who haven't endorsed for Obama, except in my Scenario IV, where I count them as Uncommitted superdelegates.

[Erc]

Two additional Edwards delegates in NH have endorsed Obama, leaving only 4 Edwards delegates who haven't endorsed: 2 in Iowa, and 1 each in NH & SC (plus 6 in FL).

Today is Saturday, so it's Convention day!

Alaska is holding its State Convention today, where all of Alaska's delegates (8, 3, and 2 At-Large, plus 1 'Add-On') will be chosen.  The pledged delegates are expected to break down 9 - 4 for Obama, though it's quite possible that Obama could gain a delegate here if he gains support (as in Nevada last Saturday).  The most likely pickup is the second Pledged PLEO delegate (Pledged PLEOs are expected to be 1 - 1, but Clinton is only holding onto her delegate by a knifedge).

Wyoming is holding its State Convention today.  They will choose Wyoming's 3 and 2 At-Large delegates (its 7 "District" delegates have already been selected).  They will also choose 1 'Add-On.'

Georgia will be having its State Central Committee meeting, where 2 unpledged 'Add-Ons' will be chosen.

Vermont will have its State Convention today, but all the results were pre-ordained by the March 4th results.  Vermont's 'Add-On' will not be chosen until June 7.

[Verily]

DemConWatch is reporting that Obama managed 77% at the Alaska convention, enough to sweep the pledged PLEOs 2-0. Not yet confirmed.

Confirmed by Green Papers.

[Erc]

Something of a milestone today:

It is now mathematically impossible for Clinton to win the nomination if nothing goes in her favor regarding the seating of MI/FL.

Assuming good results for Clinton in the remaining 3 states:
PR: 37 - 18 Clinton
SD: 8 - 7 Obama
MT: 9 - 7 Obama

The 32 pledged delegates Obama picks up in those states pushes him over the top, to 2025.5 delegates, given today's endorsement by Gail Rasmussen.

Even in a more reasonable scenario (halving of MI/FL delegation), she'd still need to win 88 - 90% of the remaining supers, and in her best case scenario, over 70% of remaining supers.

[Erc]

Michigan Congressional District Convention Results:  (to be updated as more info comes in)

Unofficial Projected Tally:
Obama 25
Uncommitted 11

Link to original discussion on Michigan's CD Conventions

(All delegates being discussed are the 'Uncommitted' ones)

The contests of note are for:
CD 9 Female
CD 12 Female
CD 13 Female
CD 14 Female
CD 14 Male
CD 15 Female

All delegate listings without citations come from the Michiganders for Obama website.  Delegates listed with an [M] below were endorsed by Michiganders for Obama or Students 4 Obama, and can be firmly relied on to be Obama supporters.

CD 1 Delegates:
Abby Dart (Obama) [MFO]
Miles Baker (Obama) [Students 4 Obama]

CD 2 Delegates:  (Forum Post, better source when available.)
Joe Zainea (Obama)
Rillastine Wilkins (Obama)

CD 3 Delegates: (Media Source)
Armand Robinson (Obama)
Alice Corey (Obama) [MFO]

CD 4 Delegates:
Mary Bacon (Obama) [MFO]
Bob Ciaffone (Obama) [MFO]

CD 5 Delegates:
Floyd Clack (Obama) [MFO]
Geraldean Hall (Obama) [MFO]

CD 6 Delegates:
Marletta Seats (Obama) [MFO]
Mark Miller (Obama) [MFO]

CD 7 Delegates:
Leonard Smigielski (Obama)
Fran Sibly (Obama)

CD 8 Delegates: (Media Source)
Griffin Rivers (Obama)
Irene Cahill (Obama) [Teamsters]

CD 9 Delegates: (Party Website, Media Source)
Catherine Martin (Uncommitted) [UAW]
Doris Toney (Obama) [MFO]
Aldo Vagnozzi (Obama)

Martin, a UAW member, was remaining officially Uncommitted "because the UAW has not endorsed a candidate yet."  She beat out an MFO-endorsed candidate, perhaps by one vote.
Vagnozzi, a State Legislator, had long ago endorsed Obama.

CD 10 Delegates:
Rosie Fessler (Obama) [MFO]
Unknown Male (presumably Obama?)

CD 11 Delegates: (Forum Post, better source when available.)
Mike Siegrist (Obama) [MFO]
Marian Novak (Obama) [Teamsters]

CD 12 Delegates:  (Forum Post, better source when available.)
Rory Gamble (Uncommitted)
Jennifer Miller (Uncommitted)
Nancy Quarles (Uncommitted)

This 'Unity Slate,' endorsed by the UAW, SEIU, and other unions, won with apparently little opposition at the convention itself.  None of them have officially endorsed candidates---Quarles appears to have at one point been an Edwards supporter (to the tune of $2000), though she may have donated to Obama before then.

Reports indicate that all 3 have endorsed Obama.

CD 13 Delegates:
3 Union Delegates?

CD 14 Delegates:
4 Union Delegates?

CD 15 Delegates: (see discussion below)
Christina Montague (Obama) [MFO]
Lynne Schwartz (Obama) [MFO]
Derrick Jackson (Obama) [MFO]


Elsewhere in the state: (Media Source)

"In the two districts that cover Detroit [Kilpatrick's and Conyers' districts, CD-13 and CD-14], as well as in Rep. Sander Levin's district [CD-12], which covers part of Oakland and Macomb counties, Obama supporters lost to union-banked slates of candidates on Saturday."

"Elsewhere, Obama supporters fared well on Saturday....they captured both uncommitted slots at the 7th District Convention in Lansing, and...the group also succeeded at meetings in Flint [CD-5] and Western Michigan districts."

"The group's top two leaders, Montague and Washtenaw County Deputy Clerk Derrick Jackson, captured slots at the 15th District Convention in Romulus, along with another Obama supporter, Ann Arbor psychologist Lynne Schwartz....Montague won the first of two female uncommitted slots to be determined, but the second took three ballots to resolve. The Obama-backers' votes were split between Lynne Schwartz, an Ann Arbor psychologist, and Rachel Friedlander, a University of Michigan student. That kept Monroe County Democratic Party Chairwoman Denise Brooks in the running, until after the second round of voting and under more than a little pressure, Friedlander dropped out, giving Schwartz the necessary votes to win."


Not all of the Union supporters are necessarily covert Clinton supporters.  In the 15th CD...

"But as in other Southeast Michigan districts, there also was a group, apparently made up mostly of union members and centered on a group from Monroe County that argued uncommitted delegates should remain uncommitted....Jackson, Washtenaw County's chief of elections [and an Obama supporter], defeated Kevin Moore, a local Teamsters Union official, for the single male uncommitted slot from the district. Moore's union has endorsed Obama, and Moore said he would have cast his ballot for Obama at the convention if he'd won."


So, apparently I was wrong...Obama was not guaranteed 30 of these delegates, as Union-backed candidates were able to win an outright majority in the Detroit districts, apparently (?) winning all the delegates in CDs 12, 13, and 14, plus 1 in CD 9 [while losing in CD 15].  Obama did not have similar losses across the rest of the state, however.

Although the systems used to select delegates are 'proportional,' in a close race, in which neither side wants to give up a chance at winning all the delegates, it can devolve to a slate vs. slate race, in which one side or the other gets all the delegates.  If the Obama supporters had realized they weren't going to win all the delegates outright, they could have combined behind one candidate and at least 4 of the 10 delegates in CDs 12-14, but instead they lost them all.

An update given new information from DCW...

The male in CD 10 is Ken Pechette, who is Uncommitted and not for Obama, as I had assumed.

In CD 12, Jennifer Miller is confirmed by DCW as having endorsed Obama.

In CD 13, the delegates are:
Tim Killeen
Cecilia Walker
John Henry Davis

In CD 14, we still don't know the names of three of the delegates, but one of them is Dan Geb, a Teamster for Obama.

Net result of this new information: Obama +1 (to 26) among the Michigan Uncommitted delegation.

[Angel of Death]

It doesn't make sense that in your scenario II.V, the number of Michigan delegates aren't also chopped in half, like Florida.