The Delegate Fight: Obama Clinches!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It appears with some research that the NH add-on is elected by a committee of convention delegates who are elected by the local Democratic parties at local meetings. So basically activists in a caucus type setting. It's easy to see who that benefits. For that reason I'm moving NH to Lean Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He got 13.11% in CD 2

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just for a little update on the whole Idaho situation:

The Idaho Democratic Party has posted a list of all delegates (along with addresses and telephone numbers, think you might be a little too open guys?) and candidate supported here: http://www.idaho-democrats.org/ht/a/GetDocumentAction/i/1165191
It appears Hillary actually did narrowly reach viability despite failing in Ada County, largely due to rounding (for example in a small county with 3 delegates where she gets a little under 20% she gets a delegate, thus 33.33% of the total) and overrepresentation of the rural counties. However it's very close. Out of 380 delegates, she has 58, thus only 2 away from losing viability. If 2 switch/don't show up, she will fail viability.

The convention is in June and by then there might be an overwhelming sentiment the race is over and it's time for Hillary to concede, thus influencing switchers, also if the state convention is in Boise that's a hell of a drive for the delegates from the outer rural areas, many might not bother showing, it's possible you might have a small county with about 20 Hillary supporters, no one really wanting to be a delegate but one being picked just because they need someone, and then that person doesn't bother. I wouldn't even rule out the possibility of the Obama campaign implanting a few "Trojan horses". So for now, Hillary has viability, but it's far from guaranteed.

That applies only to her one at large delegate too. The two allocated by district are directly tied to the votes cast in each district. So she has at least two delegates no matter what, and that third is up in the air.

Upon looking it up, the convention is in Boise. That's as far as a 7 hour drive from places in northern Idaho.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sounds like it was just a show of strength from the UAW. I doubt they'll endorse Hillary (if they were going to, they would've done so long ago.) and probably were just planning on sitting it out and endorse the eventual winner, which means likely Obama, but whatever. I doubt the slate will even be seated until there's a presumptive winner.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I still haven't heard anything out of Arizona. Odd.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I read it as that's the case for the congressional districts but not the state convention. So she's guaranteed her 2 delegates from the districts, but not her state one if too many of her delegates don't  show up/switch.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

New Hampshire chose Hillary supporter Kathy Sullivan. Arizona chose Attorney General Terry Goddard, who is still undecided. Obama did pick up a superdelegate though, the vacant party co-chair position went to one of his supporters, Charlene Fernandez.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nutter isn't a superdelegate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't see any caucus state (other than maybe Maine), where Hillary would've won a primary.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm assuming you're including Pelosi and co. in Obama's column then?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I actually calculated a Hillary lead of 7.5 among superdelegates with them thrown in.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Something worth noting: I'm currently projecting Hillary to win 19 of West Virginia's 28 delegates. That's about 68%...less than what Hillary needs here. Hillary will actually be FURTHER behind after West Virginia.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Those Oregon numbers are more than slightly optimistic for her. So is Puerto Rico (where 24/55 delegates are allocated from 4 delegate districts.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So, not much wiggle-room in WV, right? The districts must be very likely to all split 4-2 if current poll numbers hold, whereas the at-large ones should 6-4. It seems to me that Obama will hope to get a 3-3 in one of the districts while Clinton will hope for a 7-3 at-large split.

Basically. WV-2 is Obama's best shot at 3-3. Maybe Hillary can pull off 5-1 in WV-3.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Final results in NC-13 have Obama with 64.35% of the two-candidate vote and thus splitting the delegates 5-2 rather than 4-3, gaining a delegate from initial reports.

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/1875/4207/en/reports.html (Select Dem, All, CD13)

I was wondering about the whites in that district. Kind of a tough one to gauge, but looks like they are more affluent than I figured.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So really, Obama likely already has all the delegates he needs (or more specifically will once SD and MT vote) and he'll release them all that night. And he might've already informed Hillary of this, hence her recent actions looking toward dropping out.

Maybe now we can put an end to J. J.'s "If this scenario with an approx. 0.52% of happening were to occur it would be a problem for Obama so he's in big trouble." posts.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Pelosi club are probably going to be declaring for Obama tommorow.